指数平滑模型在能源消费总量预测中的应用

指数平滑技术是进行预测和决策的有效方法。本文建立了能源消费总量的三次指数平滑模型。以1989~2004年我国能源消费总量的实际数据为实证,结合这16年间的能源消费总量具有曲线趋势的特点,利用三次指数平滑模型进行预测,并研究了次模型能较好地应用于能源消耗的中短期预测,为我国能源决策提供可靠的依据。     

隧道内不同间距双火源火灾试验及模拟研究

为了给隧道双火源事故中的人员疏散和应急救援提供参考，研究隧道内部双火源火灾条件下的燃烧行为和火场环境，搭建1∶10缩尺寸模型隧道，开展不同火源间距下的双火源油池火试验，研究燃烧速率、火焰形态和隧道内纵向温度分布；同时，采用PyroSim数值模拟的方法分析隧道内部双火源之间距底面高度0.1、0.15 m处的温度分布。试验结果表明：对于隧道内双火源火灾，燃烧速率受火源间距影响较大，当间距从2D(D为油盘边长)增加到8D时，燃烧速率从20.43 g·m^-2·s^-1下降至15.61 g·m^-2·s^-1，并逐渐接近单火源燃烧速率；燃烧过程中火焰相互倾斜，倾角会随着间距增加逐渐减小，由18.3°减小至13.7°。由于两火源之间相互限制，火源之间区域内的热量不断积聚，双火源间近顶板温度明显偏高；双火源外侧远端近顶板处纵向温度呈指数衰减规律，与单火源远端顶板温度分布规律保持一致，但温度衰减因子会随着双火源间距的增加逐渐变大。数值模拟结果表明：双火源之间温度分布呈现出凹形分布规律，随着距火源距离的增加，温度迅速下降，后逐渐保持稳定，但稳定区间内的温度仍然较高，会对人员造成伤害。双火源间距对火源之间的温度分布影响较大，随着间距增加，双火源之间的稳定温度逐渐下降，对人员疏散影响逐渐变小。双火源之间温度分布规律研究结果可为火灾初期被困人员的施救提供参考。     

水源热泵及其应用前景

主要介绍水源热泵这一利用浅层低温地热“绿色技术”的概念和主要特点,预言该技术的应用前景将十分广阔.     

基于UNITEST轮机模拟器的瘫船启动分析

本文结合MSC/Circ.1176通函中的统一解释,介绍了SOLAS公约关于船舶瘫船状态的定义、瘫船启动的要求、方式以及船舶原始动力源的形式,强调了瘫船启动实验在轮机模拟器训练中的必要性和积极意义。通过阐述瘫船启动在UNITEST轮机模拟器中的实现,突出了对船舶原始动力源日常维护和管理的重要性。     

Social Acceptability of Aquaculture Development in Coastal Areas: The Case of Two Greek Islands

This article examines the acceptance of aquaculture development by residents and visitors of two islands, Cephallonia and Ithaki, in the Ionian Sea, in western Greece. Aquaculture farms have been established recently in both islands, and processing and packaging units in Cephallonia, generating jobs for the local communities and land rents for the villages in the coastal areas near the fish cages. However, the farms and processing and packaging units entail certain negative impacts on the environment. This study reveals that aquaculture farms have found better acceptance in Ithaki, where aqua culture is a form of development suited to this remote, small, predominantly rural island. The degree of acceptability is higher for locals than for tourists, but also for islanders who do not live in the areas where the processing units are situated. Respondents who consider the pollution of the marine environment by the farms to be high, mostly locals and residents of the villages in the vicinity of the aquaculture infrastructure or the main cities in the islands, are more likely to express a negative attitude toward aquaculture and its further development.     

Estimating near-road pollutant dispersion: A model inter-comparison

A model inter-comparison study to assess the abilities of steady-state Gaussian dispersion models to capture near-road pollutant dispersion has been carried out with four models (AERMOD, run with both the area-source and volume-source options to represent roadways, CALINE, versions 3 and 4, ADMS and RLINE). Two field tracer studies are used: the Idaho Falls tracer study and the Caltrans Highway 99 tracer study. Model performance measures are calculated using concentrations (observed and estimated) that are paired in time and space, since many of the health related questions involve outcomes associated with spatially and temporally distributed human activities. All four models showed an ability to estimate the majority of downwind concentrations within a factor of two of the observations. RLINE, AERMOD-V, and ADMS, also have the capability to predict concentrations upwind of the roadway that result from low-speed meandering of the plume. Generally, RLINE, ADMS, and AERMOD (both source types) had overall performance statistics that were broadly similar, while CALINE 3 and 4 both produced a larger degree of scatter in their concentration estimates. The models performed best for near-neutral conditions in both tracer studies, but had mixed results under convective and stable conditions.     

时态GIS方法及其在铁路假日客运管理信息系统中的应用

铁路假日客运管理信息系统具有数据源众多、数据发生时间不一致和数据量大等特点。阐述时态GIS的概念和技术构成。通过扩展关系型数据模型,提出一种基于视图的时空数据模型构造方法,实现空间属性和时间属性一体化。将该模型应用于假日客运管理信息系统中:解决异构、异地数据源的问题;提高客流信息的综合度和深度;实现空间上多层次统计分析、时间上不同时刻切换。通过GIS平台进行信息展示,为指挥机构调配客运资源提供辅助决策。     

论军用油库安全管理中的人机工程学问题

提出了油库人－机－环境系统的概念，论述了人机工程学在军用油库安全管理中的地位和作用，并对军用油库安全管理中系统安全工程问题进行了分析。     

舰船瞬时航向测量方法研究磁

舰船武器系统海上航行精度测试[1]需要真航向进行系统误差分析,而舰船在没有装备真航向测量系统情况下,如何提供真航向测量数据一直是需要解决的难题。论文采用舰船高精度光电跟踪仪、有源岸标和差分GPS定位设备,对舰船瞬时真航向测量方法及其可行性进行了深入细致的分析与研究,最终确定出系统瞬时航向测量精度是否满足使用要求。     

湖库型饮用水源地流域特征提取

以重庆市梁平县沙坝水库饮用水源为研究对象,利用ArcGIS水文分析模块,对水源地流域的河网进行提取和子流域划分.结果表明:选用集水面积阈值为3 000时提取的河网与实际水系分布最相近,在此基础上共划分得到13个子流域.通过对13个子流域土地利用情况的分析,发现人类活动影响主要集中在水库周边的1～5号子流域,尤其是1号子...