武器装备的可靠性再分配方法及应用探讨

文章讨论了如何充分利用可靠性预计值来优化可靠性分配的问题。在已知可靠性预计值和初始分配值时,视情况对可靠性进行再分配。并用实例说明此算法的应用和合理性。     

Using survival models to estimate bus travel times and associated uncertainties

Transit agencies often provide travelers with point estimates of bus travel times to downstream stops to improve the perceived reliability of bus transit systems. Prediction models that can estimate both point estimates and the level of uncertainty associated with these estimates (e.g., travel time variance) might help to further improve reliability by tempering user expectations. In this paper, accelerated failure time survival models are proposed to provide such simultaneous predictions. Data from a headway-based bus route serving the Pennsylvania State University-University Park campus were used to estimate bus travel times using the proposed survival model and traditional linear regression frameworks for comparison. Overall, the accuracy of point estimates from the two approaches, measured using the root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) and mean absolute errors (MAEs), was similar. This suggests that both methods predict travel times equally well. However, the survival models were found to more accurately describe the uncertainty associated with the predictions. Furthermore, survival model estimates were found to have smaller uncertainties on average, especially when predicted travel times were small. Tests for transferability over time suggested that the models did not over-fit the dataset and validated the predictive ability of models established with historical data. Overall, the survival model approach appears to be a promising method to predict both expected bus travel times and the uncertainty associated with these travel times.     

汽车可靠性分析概述

汽车可靠性涉及汽车设计、试验、制造、运输、贮存、使用及车辆维护等内容,是汽车产品性能的重要指标之一。汽车可靠性分析在可靠性研究中扮演着重要角色[1],在此基础上,文章首先梳理了国内外汽车的可靠性发展历程;其次,对不同的可靠性分析方法进行了介绍;然后,对汽车可靠性设计进行了简要说明;最后,文章对我国汽车可靠性现状进行了总结与展望。     

考虑车道荷载差异的多车道桥梁横向折减系数

为考虑车道荷载差异对多车道桥梁横向折减系数的影响，提出横向折减系数的多系数表达模式，并改进基于独立重复试验的相遇车道荷载方法以进行系数校核。首先，引入反映车道荷载差异性的车道修正系数和体现多车道荷载相遇概率的车道组合系数，形成横向折减系数的多系数表达模式。其次，改进目前常用的基于独立重复试验的相遇车道荷载方法，将车道交通流量及荷载分布的差异性涵盖进来。随后，参数化研究横向折减系数的关键影响参量，包括货车通过控制断面的平均时间、荷载重现期、车道交通量和车道荷载分布等。最后，基于某高速公路实测动态称重数据，给出采用该方法校核横向折减系数的详细过程，并与传统方法及JTG D60-2015规范方法所得结果进行对比。研究表明：所提出的改进相遇车道荷载方法，摈弃了传统方法中车重正态分布、车道荷载同分布、最大观测车重与均值3.5倍偏差关系等备受质疑的假设，是更一般性的解答。参数化分析表明：货车通过控制断面的平均时间和荷载重现期对结果影响很小，货车荷载模型及其在车道间差异性则影响很显著，说明对车道荷载分布规律进行准确建模的重要性。实测车道货车荷载数据统计发现：货车的交通量和荷载分布在车道之间具有明显的差异，传统方法和规范方法给出的横向折减系数均高估了实际情况，最大达19%，可能造成设计与管养资源的浪费；而基于该方法校核的横向折减系数，更能深入揭示各车道荷载的贡献规律，准确反映不同车道组合作用下的荷载横向折减规律，具有显著的工程应用价值。     

船舶防污染作业等级评定量化研究

文章应用模糊数学评估方法,建立船舶防污染作业等级评定模型,为量化研究船舶防污染作业单位安全状况提供了具体的方法和依据。最后结合辖区实际进行了验证。     

Bi-objective routing problem with asymmetrical travel time distributions

Recent studies have confirmed that travelers consider travel time reliability in addition to average travel time when making route choice decisions. In this study, we develop a bi-objective routing model that seeks to simultaneously optimize the average travel time and travel time reliability. The semi-standard deviation (SSD) is chosen as the reliability measure because it reflects travelers' concerns over longer travel time better than the commonly used standard deviation. The Pareto-optimal solutions to the bi-objective model are found by using an improved strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm. Tests on a real-world urban network with field measured travel time data have demonstrated good performance of the algorithm in the aspects, such as computational efficiency, quick convergence, and closeness to the global Pareto-optimal. Overall, the bi-objective routing model generates reasonable path recommendations. The SSD-based model is sensitive to the asymmetry of travel time distribution and tends to avoid paths with excessively long delays. This would be particularly helpful to those users placing high values on travel time reliability.     

Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

水下平台进水下潜过程的稳定性控制

介绍了某型水下平台的压载水系统组成,分析了其进水下潜过程的工作特点,结合静力学原理对平台进行分析和建模。针对进水控制系统为MIMO型且存在多变量耦合,采用模糊解耦的方法进行解耦分析,提出了一种基于模糊控制算法的平台进水下潜过程稳定性控制方法。经Matlab仿真表明,这种控制方法能够满足平台自动进水下潜过程的稳定性以及快速性要求。最后,通过实际系统水下试验进一步验证其可靠性。     

深水Spar钻采储运平台极限强度可靠性分析

针对一种新型的深水立柱式Spar钻采储运平台(Spar Drilling Production Storage Offloading)的结构特点进行极限强度可靠性研究。SDPSO平台的中间舱段为储油系统,其结构的安全性尤为重要,本文验证了在波浪弯矩年极值条件下其特殊储油系统结构的安全性。采用SESAM/Wadam软件对SDPSO平台进行水动力计算,利用序列统计法得到年极值短期海况,然后采用极值I型分布得到该短期海况下的波浪弯矩极值;利用ABAQUS非线性有限元软件和改进的Rosenblueth法进行SDPSO平台中舱段的极限强度计算,并得到极限承载能力的概率分布。最后基于一次二阶矩法完成SDPSO平台弯曲极限强度的可靠性计算,结果表明平台结构极限强度具有较高的安全水平,为深海立柱式海洋平台设计提供了依据和参考。     

基于高性能平面二维水流数学模型的计算效率研究

针对高性能平面二维水流数学模型,分别开展了基于单机多核处理器(CPU)和显卡(GPU)的并行化研究,旨在提高模型计算效率。以长江下游福姜沙水道为例,对并行后模型的可靠性和计算效率进行评估,结果表明:采用两种并行模式后,模型计算结果与串行结果一致,可靠性好,且计算效率有所提高,特别是采用GPU并行模式后,模型计算效率提高6.7倍以上,大大缩短了模型计算周期。