使用手机对低龄驾驶人可靠度影响的模拟驾驶实验分析

以驾驶模拟器为实验平台,分析使用手机对驾驶可靠度的影响.通过40名驾驶人参与模拟驾驶实验,统计比较不同通话方式下完成的不同驾驶任务,建立使用手机条件下的驾驶人可靠度模型.研究发现:频繁的多次通话后的可靠度将比长时通话的可靠度更低,频繁通话具有较高危险性;可靠度的极限值出现在驾驶人多重失误的情况下,使用手机同时完成双重任务的干扰性远比单一任务大.     

高烈度地震区抗滑桩锚固深度可靠度分析

在高烈度地震区,地震作用对抗滑桩的影响并没有引起人们的足够重视,这将大大降低工程运行可靠度。针对地震区抗滑桩设计,对影响锚固深度的容许侧应力进行地震角修正,建立地震作用下的抗滑桩侧应力计算模型,确定承载能力极限状态下的侧应力功能函数,把桩周岩土介质参数、桩体结构强度和地震作用等作为随机变量,采用一次二阶矩法,进行可靠性指标计算。通过工程实例,得出在一定锚固深度下,岩土参数变异性、考虑和不考虑地震作用条件下对抗滑桩可靠度的影响,获得高烈度地震区抗滑桩设计中的锚固深度取值标准,并提出抗滑桩设计以可靠度法设计指导定值法设计的新思路。     

舰载指控系统三种体系结构的可靠性建模与比较

舰载作战指挥与武器控制系统(简称指控系统)体系结构的发展,对满足未来先进舰载指控系统或改进现役舰载指控系统装备具有重要意义,其中指控系统体系结构的可靠性是关系系统性能优劣的重要因素之一。在分析舰载指控系统的系统需求基础上,针对集中式、分开式和分布式3种不同的舰载指控系统体系结构分别进行可靠性建模分析,推导出3种体系结构的可靠性表达式。算例计算结果表明,分布式体系结构具有优于其它两种体系结构的可靠性指标。未来舰载指控系统采用分布式体系结构已成为发展趋势。     

格鲁吉亚动车组制动电阻装置的研制

介绍了出口格鲁吉亚动车组制动电阻装置的原理、技术特点、性能参数和结构组成。该制动电阻装置具有电阻单元采用抽屉式设计方便安装与维护、电阻单元抗变形能力强、电阻带最热点的温度裕量大等特点。试验和运行考核验证了该制动电阻装置的稳定性和可靠性。     

Reliability-based network flow estimation with day-to-day variation: A model validation on real large-scale urban networks

Day-to-day variation in the travel times of congested urban transportation networks is a frustrating phenomenon to the users of these networks. These users look pessimistically at the path travel times, and learn to spend additional time to safeguard against serious penalties that await late arrivals at the destinations. These additional expenses are charges similar to the tolls in system equilibrium flow problem, but may not be collected. With this conjecture, the user equilibrium (UE) formulation of congested network flow problem would lack some necessary factors in addressing appropriate path choices. This study, following a previous work proposing pessimistic UE (PUE) flow, aims to show how to measure this additional travel cost for a link, and investigates how different is PUE from UE, and when such differences are pronounced. Data are collected from the peak-hour travel times for the links of paths in the city of Tehran, to estimate the variance of travel times for typical links. Deterministic functions are obtained by calibrating the standard deviation of the daily variations of link travel times, and probabilistic functions by the technique of copula. UE and PUE traffic assignment models are built and applied to three large cities of Mashhad, Shiraz, and Tehran in Iran. The results show that the estimated flows by PUE model replicate the observed flows in screen lines much better than the UE model, particularly for longer trips. Since PUE is computationally equivalent to UE, this improvement is attained virtually at no cost.     

Transshipment hub port selection for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the factors affecting transshipment (T/S) hub port selection by a feeder port and helps shipping carriers make a decision about T/S hub port selection in a dual hub-port system. By employing established evaluation factors, a case study is conducted to weigh the priority of factors and to select an alternative T/S hub port, such as between the Shanghai and Ningbo ports from the Nanjing feeder port in the Yangtze River delta (YRD). A combined multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) method is employed to both reduce the number of pairwise comparisons by AHP and to obtain experts’ knowledge in the decision-making process. The result indicates that the cost, availability of hub port’s space allocation, and the connectivity between feeder port and hub port are crucial factors for T/S hub port selection by shipping carriers. In the case study, Shanghai is selected as the T/S hub port from the Nanjing feeder port. Nevertheless, Ningbo port has the advantage of cost, and if the relationship with feeder port can be improved, Ningbo port would be preferred over Shanghai as a T/S hub port for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system.     

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水上交通事故人因可靠性,一方面在风险预防阶段会受到风险水平的影响;另一方面,在险情发展及应对过程中会存在与外部影响因素的相互作用.因此,为全面评价水上交通事故人因可靠性,从风险预防和险情应对这两个角度,提出了基于风险系数和置信度的人因可靠性的定量评价方法.首先,利用三角模糊数分别建立了各风险要素和风险系数的评价标准,并应用证据理论对这3个风险要素进行融合,获取了该险情的风险系数.其次,引用人因交互模型全面分析了人因可靠性的影响因素,建立了人因可靠性检查表,并利用置信度建立了各影响因素定量评价模型.最后,选取了一起典型沉船事故为案例定量评价了人因可靠性,结果表明,本文提出的方法可以更为全面地分析人因可靠性.     

基于神经网络模糊PID控制的无刷直流电机控制系统研究

针对电动汽车行驶工况的要求,为了使电机能够有良好的启动特性和稳态特性,在Simulink中建立了无刷直流电机转速-电流双闭环控制系统仿真模型,转速控制神经网络和模糊控制对PID控制参数进行在线整定;电流环采用电流滞环控制,并对控制模型进行空载启动后加载实验。实验结果表明,本文设计的控制系统响应速度快,无静差,抗干扰能力强。     

公路软基处理方案优选的熵权模糊物元决策法

针对目前公路软基处理方案优选决策中存在的不足,将模糊物元分析应用到公路软基处理方案优选决策中,建立基于熵权的模糊物元决策方法.该方法把各种软基处理方案作为物元的事物,用方案的各项评价指标及其相应的模糊量值构造复合模糊物元.采用熵权与决策者的主观权重相结合的方法确定评价指标的综合权重,使之既能反映决策者的主观偏好,又能反映指标的客观分布特征,使权重确定更加合理.通过计算各比较物元与标准模糊物元之间的海明贴近度来实现方案的排序与择优.最后,以苏嘉杭高速公路软基处理方案优选为例,结果说明该方法是有效、可行的.     

The impact of route guidance,departure time advice and alternative routes on door-to-door travel time reliability: Two data-driven assessment methods

ABSTRACT

Conventional travel time reliability assessment has evolved from road segments to the route level. However, a connection between origin and destination usually consists of multiple routes, thereby providing the option to choose. Having alternatives can compensate for the deterioration of a single route; therefore, this study assesses the reliability and quality of the aggregate of the route set of an origin-destination (OD) pair. This paper proposes two aggregation methods for analyzing the reliability of travel times on the OD level: 1) an adapted Logsum method and 2) a route choice model. The first method analyzes reliability from a network perspective and the second method is based on the reliability as perceived by a traveler choosing his route from the available alternatives. A case study using detailed data on actual travel times illustrates both methods and shows the impact of having variable departure times and the impact of information strategies on travel time reliability.