一种混合评价模型在综合客运枢纽客流组织服务水平评价中的应用

提出将模糊综合评判法与决策中的模糊层次分析法和熵技术结合，建立混合熵权模糊综合评价决策模型，用于城市综合客运枢纽的客流服务水平的评价。此模型兼顾主观偏好和客观实际，结果表明该模型具有合理性与有效性。     

基于非参数回归的城轨实时进出站客流预测

为准确预测城轨实时进出站客流,构建基于非参数回归的实时进出站客流预测模型。首先,对不同特征日分时进出站客流量进行对比分析,据此构建历史数据库;其次,通过计算历史分时数据的相关系数,并设置阈值对分时客流数据间的相关性进行判断,从而确定合适的非参数模型状态向量;再次,根据K近邻样本与预测目标的客流量差异性,设计基于权重加权的预测算法;最后利用广州市城轨客流数据对预测模型进行精度分析,对全网站点多天的预测结果显示:全天平均绝对百分比误差均在2%以下,分时平均绝对百分比误差均在14%以下,表明模型具有较高的预测精度和良好的适用性。     

边界条件对柴油机瞬态过程能量流及?流的影响规律研究

在一台高压共轨增压中冷柴油机上,分析了负荷加载时间、冷却系统温度等边界条件对典型恒转速增转矩瞬变过程能量流及?流的影响规律。结果表明,柴油机负荷加载过程热效率和?效率总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,且加载时间越短,进气迟滞引起的能量劣变会导致更低的能量利用率;改变中冷器冷却特性,提高加载过程进气温度将导致缸内扩散燃烧份额增加、传热时间更长,而冷却液温度降低则不利于改善瞬态工况缸内等效绝热特征,导致传热和排气过程能量损失及其中的可用能份额增大;调制负荷加载时间和冷却系统温度有助于改善柴油机加载过程进气响应特性、缸内热氛围状态和绝热特征,提升柴油机瞬态工况能量利用水平。     

城市交通走廊分流措施与设计模式

针对我国大城市存在不同性质交通流对走廊核心干路过度依赖的问题,提出路网分流和断面分流两种交通走廊功能保障措施,分别以上海市杨高路交通走廊和库里蒂巴西南交通走廊为例,剖析以这两种保障措施为核心的交通走廊设计要点。对城市发展轴交通走廊提出三种设计模式,对一般性交通走廊提出两种设计模式,分别探讨了每种模式的适用条件、设置要素、优缺点和实施保障要求。     

国际航运业船舶负债经营的融资租赁决策

与飞机、汽车等运输工具的融资租赁相比较，国际航运船舶的融资租赁是资金市场上最近出现的现象。该文通过实例论述了船舶融资租赁决策的方法；讨论了船舶融资租赁与贷款购建相比较所具有的优点与存在的弱点。本文的计算分析表明，船舶融资租赁与船舶贷款购建同样是根据航运企业的财务状况可供选择的一种融资方式，我国航运界对船舶的融资租赁不应存在疑问。     

A macroscopic loading model for time-varying pedestrian flows in public walking areas

A macroscopic loading model applicable to time-dependent and congested pedestrian flows in public walking areas is proposed. Building on the continuum theory of pedestrian flows and the cell transmission model for car traffic, an isotropic framework is developed that can describe the simultaneous and potentially conflicting propagation of multiple pedestrian groups. The model is formulated at the aggregate level and thus computationally cheap, which is advantageous for studying large-scale problems. A detailed analysis of several basic flow patterns including counter- and cross flows, as well as two generic scenarios involving a corner- and a bottleneck flow is carried out. Various behavioral patterns ranging from disciplined queueing to impatient jostling can be realistically reproduced. Following a systematic model calibration, two case studies involving a Swiss railway station and a Dutch bottleneck flow experiment are presented. A comparison with the social force model and pedestrian tracking data shows a good performance of the proposed model with respect to predictions of travel time and density.     

基于γ界面捕捉模型的近场水下爆炸数值模拟

随着对水下爆炸现象研究的逐步深入,近场水下爆炸的数值模拟研究越来越受到重视。近场水下爆炸数值模拟当中的主要难点在于多相流运动以及界面捕捉方法的研究。文章提出一种较为稳定的近场水下爆炸数值模拟方法,其包含了五阶WENO重构以及HLLC近似黎曼求解器的格式,对于多相流界面的捕捉方法基于γ模型。文中的求解格式通过了一维激波管问题以及二维轴对称问题的验证,计算结果与理论解和实验结果吻合较好。在此基础上将该方法推广到近场水下爆炸过程中冲击波传播以及近水面爆炸现象的模拟,模拟结果较为满意。该文的研究方法能够为后续的近场水下爆炸过程中的空泡以及水射流的研究提供指导。     

U.S. import/export container flow modeling and disruption analysis

International containerized freight movement is a vital part of the supply chain for many companies, and a critical element of moving consumer goods to points of retail sale within the U.S. Containerized imports also present a clear security concern (e.g., terrorists attempting to ship “dirty bombs,” chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons, into the U.S. in a shipping container). The goal of the research presented here is to create a modeling tool for analyzing flows of U.S. imports and exports of containerized freight, and the potential changes in those flows under a variety of conditions (e.g., port disruptions, extensive security-related delays, etc.). Our focus is on movements through maritime container ports, and not overland movements between the U.S. and Canada or Mexico.The network model, referred to as the System for Import/Export Routing and Recovery Analysis (SIERRA), represents container movements between the U.S. and 46 other countries that account for the vast majority of U.S. imports and exports. The SIERRA model is a network equilibrium model that predicts flows between foreign countries and North American ports, the total volumes handled (import and export) by each port, the modal volumes (truck and rail) moving domestically into and out of each port, and volumes between each port and a set of transportation analysis zones within the U.S.     

舰船涡旋流堵漏方法实验

舰船涡旋流堵漏是为克服现有堵漏手段存在的不足而提出的一种新技术思想。为此专门设计制作了相应的实验装置,分别研究了3 cm,5 cm和7 cm刚性桨叶生成的涡旋流对破口进水量的影响规律。实验结果表明,在转速相同条件下,破口距离越小,桨叶尺寸越大,生成的涡旋流对破口进水量的降低效果越明显,相比自然状态,可降至50%以上。研究结论可为舰船涡旋流堵漏方法的实际应用和装备设计提供必要的实验依据。     

船舶倾斜对不同行人流疏散效率影响的数值分析

为研究船舶倾斜对船上人员疏散过程的影响,在基础社会力模型中引入行人倾斜力和自调整力,构建一种考虑船舶倾斜状态的改进社会力模型,通过比对前人实验结果验证模型的有效性.增加行人视角范围,确定周围行人作用的有效范围;结合MATLAB仿真单向、对向、交叉和多向行人流场景,分析不同倾斜状态对行人疏散速度的影响,并拟合疏散时间随倾...