随机海浪中船舶非线性横摇的首次穿越概率

利用首次穿越失效理论研究了在随机波浪激励下的船舶稳性.利用一组基于广义谐和函数的变换首先将船舶横摇方程降阶为一组一阶随机微分方程.接着利用一个新的随机平均程序获得了幅值过程微分方程的平均漂移和扩散系数的闭合形表达式,并建立了控制横摇幅值过程平均首次穿越时间的Pontryagin-Vitt方程.推导了Pontryagin-Vitt方程的两个边界条件,通过数值求解该边界值问题获得了平均首次穿越时间和首次穿越概率值.     

Application of El Farol model for managing marine terminal gate congestion

Truck queuing at marine terminal gates has long been recognized as a source of emissions problem due to the large number of trucks idling. For this reason, there is a great deal of interest among the different stakeholders to lessen the severity of the problem. An approach being experimented by some terminals to reduce truck queuing at the terminal is to provide live views of their gates via webcams. An assumption made by the terminals in this method is that truck dispatchers and drivers will make rational decisions regarding their departure times such that there will be less fluctuations in truck arrivals at the terminal based on the live information. However, it is clear that if dispatchers send trucks to the terminal whenever the truck queues are short and not send trucks when the truck queues are long, it could lead to a perpetual whip lash effect. This study explores the predictive strategies that need to be made by the various dispatchers to achieve the desired effects (i.e. steady arrival of trucks and hence less queuing at the seaport terminal gates). This problem is studied with the use of an agent-based simulation model and the solution to the well known El Farol Bar problem. Results demonstrate that truck depots can manage (without any collaboration with one another) to minimize congestion at seaport terminal gates by using the provided real-time gate congestion information and some simple logics for estimating the expected truck wait time.     

超大直径钢管桩风机基础优化研究

针对近海风机基础中的超大直径独立桩基础的力学问题,结合实际工程,采用数值软件对其进行模拟计算,得 到桩长、桩壁厚与位移和应力变化曲线,以及局部改变桩壁厚和增加翼缘对桩位移和应力的影响。通过计算分析认为：桩 长和桩壁厚都在一定范围内对桩位移和应力有影响,桩壁厚局部变化对位移影响不明显,但对应力有显著变化;在泥面下 一定范围内增加翼缘能有效减小侧向位移, 并给出翼缘的最优入土长度和厚度,为实际工程提供设计依据。     

基于并列铰接空间地基梁法的闸首底板计算分析

介绍并列铰接空间地基梁法的理论推导过程,结合山东八里湾船闸工程实例,分别运用并列铰接空间地基梁法、平面截条法、有限元法3种方法计算闸首底板内力并进行对比分析,结果表明并列铰接空间地基梁法比平面截条法更接近有限元法的计算结果,验证了并列铰接空间地基梁法的可靠性,可以推广应用到船闸闸首底板、水闸底板等基础梁板的设计分析中。     

Australian Beach Safety and the Politics of Shark Attacks

There are no simple government solutions when sharks bite people. These rare and sometimes fatal incidents are fraught with uncertainties and command a disproportionate amount of psychological space in the minds of the public, as well as a large degree of policy space and funding from many governments. Responses to mitigate shark bite incidents involve public policies that contend with the needs of public safety as well as the responsibility to protect endangered predators. Little study to date has been done examining the politics of shark attacks, yet these events are among the most geographically dispersed human–wildlife conflicts in the world. I examine the underlying concerns that drive this policy process by asking how problem definition framing by policy entrepreneurs affects government responses following shark bite incidents. Through a case study of shark bite incidents in Sydney, Australia in 1929, 1934, and 2009, I identify three competing problem definitions: behavioral, psychological, and conservation. The psychological definition, building confidence in the minds of the public, is shown to be the most successful. Building on previous research, I argue that policy entrepreneurship is a central feature in the strength of problem definitions. I conclude by suggesting lessons for the balanced coastal management of human–marine life conflicts including the selection of trusted spokespeople, prioritizing measures to relieve short-term public anxiety, reframing beach ecosystems as “the wild,” and connecting public safety education to personal behavior.     

舰船腐蚀防护存在的问题及建议

从腐蚀防护顶层设计、定量控制、标准规范建设等8个方面分析了当前舰船腐蚀防护工作存在的问题,提出加强认识、重视基础建设、实现规范化管理等解决措施和建议。     

我国游艇码头设计、建设与发展趋势

游艇产业作为新兴和朝阳产业越来越受到高度重视和关注,其发展被寄予厚望。我国海南、深圳、厦门、上海、青岛、江苏、浙江、河北、辽宁等沿海和内陆水上旅游资源丰富且经济相对发达的省市游艇产业予以大力扶持发展。介绍游艇码头设计关键技术、国内建设情况以及未来发展趋势等,并指出目前游艇产业存在的问题。     

民企外包产品质量问题的分析与改进

以所驻民营企业为研究对象,就军代表在民营企业外包产品质量监督工作中应发挥的作用进行了分析,并提出了具体对策。     

城市轨道交通建设安全风险管理现状与发展建议

结合国内主要城市轨道交通建设安全风险管理开展情况,概括总结现行的管理模式及实施细节,分析安全风险体系建设、安全意识及保障能力、灾变机理、动态预警等方面存在的问题,阐述行业发展方向,相关成果可为建设管理者提升安全风险管理水平、保证工程安全质量提供借鉴。     

城市轨道交通基于通信的列车控制系统实现互联互通存在的主要问题分析

城市轨道交通基于通信的列车控制系统互联互通对于资源共享、资金节约有着重大意义,对提高运营效率、节省投资、便于维护等都是有利的。但信号系统互联互通是一项系统工程,牵涉到多个专业,标准的制定和执行还需要经过进一步的充分讨论和研究。提出了信号系统实现互联互通存在的主要问题是列车自动调整、电子地图及物理对象编码、通信协议和安全认证等,对其中为了实现互联互通而牺牲掉的某些性能或功能,尤其是对信号系统引导未来发展的问题,都需要进行认真识别和讨论。