Neighborhood services,trip purpose,and tour-based travel

Communities are increasingly looking to land use planning strategies to reduce drive-alone travel. Many planning efforts aim to develop neighborhoods with higher levels of accessibility that will allow residents to shop closer to home and drive fewer miles. To better understand how accessible land use patterns relate to household travel behavior, this paper is divided into three sections. The first section describes the typical range of services available in areas with high neighborhood accessibility. It explains how trip-based travel analysis is limited because it does not consider the linked (chained) nature of most travel. The second section describes a framework that provides a more behavioral understanding of household travel. This framework highlights travel tours, the sequence of trips that begin and end at home, as the basic unit of analysis. The paper offers a typology of travel tours to account for different travel purposes; by doing so, this typology helps understand tours relative to the range of services typically offered in accessible neighborhoods. The final section empirically analyzes relationships between tour type and neighborhood access using detailed travel data from the Central Puget Sound region (Seattle, Washington). Households living in areas with higher levels of neighborhood access are found to complete more tours and make fewer stops per tour. They make more simple tours (out and back) for work and maintenance (personal, appointment, and shopping) trip purposes but there is no difference in the frequency of other types of tours. While they travel shorter distances for maintenance-type errands, a large portion of their maintenance travel is still pursued outside the neighborhood. These findings suggest that while higher levels of neighborhood access influences travel tours, it does not spur households to complete the bulk of their errands close to home.     

An Exploration of the Relationship between Timing and Duration of Maintenance Activities

The timing and duration of an activity episode are two important temporal aspects of activity-travel behavior. Understanding the causal relationship between these two variables would be useful in the development of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. This paper investigates the relationship between these two variables by considering two different causal structures – one structure in which time-of-day choice is determined first and influences duration and a second structure in which activity duration is determined first and affects time-of-day choice. These two structures are estimated within a discrete-continuous simultaneous equations framework employing a full-information maximum likelihood methodology that allows error covariance. The estimation is performed separately for commuter and non-commuter samples drawn from a 1996 household travel survey data set from the Tampa Bay area in Florida. The results of the model estimation effort show that the causal structure in which activity duration precedes or affects activity timing (time of day choice) performs better for the non-commuter sample. For the commuter sample, the findings were less conclusive with both causal structures offering equally good statistical measures of fit. In addition, for the commuter sample, all error correlations were found to be zero. These two findings suggest that time of day choice and activity episode duration are only loosely related for the commuter sample, possibly due to the relatively non-discretionary and inflexible work activity and travel.     

基于PCA-聚类分析的高铁旅客购票行为特性研究

铁路运输中旅客购票行为是铁路客运运营策略制定的重要基础.旅客购票行为直接影响着列车能力的占用过程,是铁路客运票额组织的重要依据.根据贵阳—广州高速铁路的旅客购票统计数据,以高铁购票旅客为样本,运用主成分分析法购票行为的特征属性进行综合分析,获得购票行为中重要特征变量.结合单次购票强度提出基于模糊C均值的双重聚类算法,对购票旅客进行聚类,并利用模糊聚类有效性指标Xie-beni和分离系数法确定最佳聚类数.结果表明,高铁旅客购票行为的关键特性为单次出行旅客人数、购票提前天数、出行OD城市人均GDP和购票渠道;不同旅客类型的购票行为有明显特性.     

铁路乘客艾滋病知识、态度、行为调查分析

目的　调查铁路旅客的艾滋病相关知识、态度和行为情况,为列车开展艾滋病宣传教育提供理论依据。方法　对6趟旅客列车乘客进行抽样问卷调查,调查结果进行统计分析。结果收回有效调查问卷2 083份,艾滋病一般知识正确回答率55.83% ~92.03%,传播途径59.67%~93.52%,临床知识59.00%~77.34%,预防控制68.75%~88.86%,态度行为48.25%~94.33%,政策法规67.64%~84.88%。正确回答率无性别差异(P>0.05);一般知识、传播途径、行为态度存在结婚与否的差异(P<0.05);受教育程度上除一般知识外,其它都有显著性差异(P<0.01)。结论　铁路乘客对艾滋病知识、态度、行为的正确回答率,原则性问题高于具体问题, 71%以上乘客愿意接受健康教育和AIDS教育。针对铁路乘客流动性强的特点,列车上艾滋病宣传教育内容要注重知识具体化。     

汽车驾驶员不安全行为评价分析

为稳步增强汽车驾驶的安全性,减少安全事故的发生,驾驶人员除了需要具备足够的应急应变能力之外,还需要做好安全行为习惯养成工作,形成良好的驾驶习惯.文章以汽车驾驶员不安全行为作出研究对象,在明确不安全行为表现的基础上,深刻分析影响汽车驾驶人员不安全行为的因素,在此基础上,制定合理的应对策略,旨在引导驾驶人员形成安全行为,以...     

港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为,将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量,构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明,低运量倾向选择公路运输,托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视,对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视,陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响,巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.     

关于城市交通需求预测理论现状与发展的研究

四阶段法是交通需求预测的经典方法,分为交通发生、交通分布、交通方式划分和交通分配四个阶段,四阶段的基本模型和算法在宏观交通规划中发挥着重要的作用.然而随着交通规划管理的发展,四阶段法也暴露出自己的局限性.本文将分析四阶段法的局限性和探讨其它改善的交通需求预测模型.     

公务车税收政策对出行行为的影响

通过对以色列的案例研究,探讨了公务车税收政策对出行行为的影响.以色列的公务车经历了大规模的增长,对公务车的税收政策也进行了一系列调整.调查400名拥有公务车的员工和230名只有一辆私人汽车的员工,结果显示,公务车对出行行为产生了显著影响,不利于交通的可持续发展.公务车税收政策及其实践带来了相当多的额外行驶里程,并刺激员工整个家庭使用公务车出行.公务车税收政策的调整及公司政策的变化,可能会显著影响员工拥有公务车的意愿,并改变其出行行为.     

驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型

为准确模拟驾驶人跟车行为,提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model,HMM)的驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型。建立描述驾驶意愿的HMM模型,模拟驾驶人感知过程,获得期望的车间距;预测模块模拟驾驶人根据交通环境和自身生理、心理状态预测车辆未来轨迹,即决策过程;优化模块描述驾驶人为使预测的车辆轨迹跟踪上期望的车辆间距而采取的操控汽车的执行动作,即操控过程。上述3个模块的滚动过程实现了对驾驶人跟车行为的模拟。利用自然驾驶数据进行算例分析,结果表明,本文模型预测车间距平均误差仅为1.47%,证明了所建模型的有效性及准确性。本文为驾驶行为建模方法的理论研究和应用拓宽了思路。