交通事件持续时间预测贝叶斯网方法研究

交通事件持续时间的预测是事件管理系统的重要组成部分,根据I-880实测数据集,利用逐步回归分析的方法确定事件持续时间的主要影响因素,分别建立了应用于事件持续时间预测的朴素贝叶斯(NB)模型、加树朴素贝叶斯(TAN)模型以及一般贝叶斯网(BN)模型,在分析数据特点的基础上确定了贝叶斯网的推理算法、参数学习以及结构学习方法.在不同数据缺失的程度和不同训练样本规模下,分别对三种模型的预测准确率进行了评价,结果表明贝叶斯网预测模型在数据缺失30%的情况下30min准确率高于80%.     

含水率对砖砌体抗剪强度的影响

通过含水率对砖砌体抗剪强度影响规律的试验,分别测出不同砖砌体试件整体含水率、砖的含水率和砂浆缝砂浆的含水率与抗剪强度之间的关系,得到砖砌体试件随浸泡时间含水率的变化规律,给出了考虑含水率的砖砌体抗剪强度计算公式.通过试验可以看出,含水率对砖砌体抗剪强度有着重要影响,有关规范中应予以考虑.     

河北北部山区通村公路土基回弹模量对路面设计的影响研究

通过对河北北部山区通村公路进行现场试验,由回归分析得到土基回弹模量与弯沉的关系式,并根据不同土基强度与不同标准轴载对路面厚度设计的影响,对土基强度进行分级,可作为路面设计的依据。     

长江上游集装箱码头陆域堆场平面布置及港内道路纵坡研究

以长江上游重庆寸滩集装箱码头工程的建设条件为基础，提出了代表性的3种集装箱堆场陆域平面布置方案，结合集卡上坡行驶油耗实测试验，分析了港口道路坡度对集卡燃油经济性的影响，对指导长江上游集装箱码头陆域堆场平面布置设计具有一定的参考价值.     

轨道交通 U 梁温度梯度效应研究

为研究轨道交通 U 梁的温度梯度效应,整理并总结目前国内既有项目对高架 U 梁进行的温度监测模式及 研究结果,结合实体有限元模型计算分析,得出 U 梁在各温度梯度模式下的温度应力及变形值,并提出可应用于 工程设计的 U 梁温度梯度模式。研究结果表明,温度梯度荷载工况下的 U 梁纵向正应力值在设计正应力值中占 比相对较大,而横向应力和局部变形差相对较小;轨道交通线路走向大体呈东西向时,高架 U 梁运营后的腹板竖 向温度梯度建议采用指数函数,底板竖向温度梯度建议采用折线函数,研究结果可为相关工程设计提供参考。     

Lights,camera, legal action! The effectiveness of red light cameras on collisions in Los Angeles

This study estimates the effect of red light cameras (henceforth cameras) on collisions under the Los Angeles Automated Photo Enforcement Program that ran from 2006 to 2011. To control for selection bias and unobservables, a data set is constructed such that intersections with cameras are compared to control groups of nearby intersections without cameras, matched on observable characteristics. To capture potential spillover effects of cameras, control groups at various distances from the intersections with cameras are considered. A Poisson panel data model with random coefficients is applied to these data and estimated using Bayesian methods. The program suffered from weaknesses in enforcement. The city’s courts did not uphold citations and this dampened the effect cameras had on drivers. These problems are accounted for in modeling. Controlling for these concerns, results indicate that the cameras decreased red light running related collisions, but increased right-angle and injury collisions, as well as collisions overall.     

Reasonable compensation coefficient of maximum gradient in long railway tunnels

This paper deals with the theory and calculation methods for compensation of the gradient in railway tunnels through theoretical analysis,numerical calculation,and statistic regression methods.On the basis of the principle that the resultant force is zero,the formula of the maximum calculated gradient was derived for the freight and passenger line and high-speed passenger special line.The formula of aerodynamic drag in tunnel is provided using the domestic and foreign relevant experimental investigations,an...     

考虑沥青路面材料参数空间差异性的解析计算及影响分析

复杂服役环境下沥青路面的材料参数存在明显的空间差异性，具体表现为沿深度的模量梯度分布与非连续层间接触以及横观各向同性，实现其解析计算对现有的沥青路面力学响应分析及结构设计方法具有重要的参考价值。为此，从弹性力学基本方程出发，基于状态空间法，推导了具有指数模量梯度的横观各向同性弹性层状体系通解；在此基础上，基于波传递方法，将状态向量转换为波向量，并结合边界条件和层间条件，建立了考虑沥青路面材料参数差异性的多层路面结构解析解；然后借助MATLAB平台编制了数值计算程序，采用文献对比、BISAR程序以及有限元软件ABAQUS验证了该解析解的精度与效率；最后结合典型数值算例，阐述了该解析解在沥青Top-Down开裂和传统路面疲劳损伤分析中的应用。理论推导和数值计算结果表明：该解析解摆脱了弹性力学问题求解对应力函数的依赖性，并且借助波传播方法，避免了求解中正指数过大对求解精度的影响，并使得边界条件和不同层间接触关系的描述更加便捷；沥青路面材料参数的空间差异性不可忽视，沥青面层连续模量梯度会造成更大的路表拉应力和最大剪应力，进而加剧沥青路面的Top-Down开裂；而横观各向同性和层间接触状态间存在耦合效应，从而会加剧沥青路面的疲劳损伤。     

Findings from subjective evaluations and driver ratings of vehicle dynamics: steering and handling

This paper investigates subjective assessments (SA) of vehicle handling and steering feel tests, both numerical and verbal, to understand drivers’ use of judgement scales, rating tendencies and spread. Two different test methods are compared: a short multi-vehicle first-impression test with predefined-driving vs the standard extensive single-vehicle free-driving tests, both offering very similar results but with the former saving substantial testing time. Rating repeatability is evaluated by means of a blind test. Key SA questions are identified by numerical subjective assessment autocorrelations and by generating word clouds from the most used terms in verbal assessments, with both methods leading to similar key parameters. The results exposed in this paper enable better understanding of SA, allowing improving the overall subjective testing and evaluation process, and improving the data collection and analysis process needed before identifying correlations between SA and objective metrics.     

Safety modeling for two‐way left‐turn lanes and a procedure to identify two‐way left‐turn lane segments with safety concerns

In the past, two‐way left‐turn lane (TWLTL) median treatments have been frequently used in Florida to inexpensively improve traffic and safety performances. In order to identify factors that may have significant impacts on safety operations in TWLTL sections and to identify TWLTL locations that present existing and future safety concerns, a research project was carried out and results are summarized in the paper. In the research, a three‐year crash history database with crashes and section characteristics from a total of 1688 TWLTL sections all over Florida was developed and used. A negative binomial regression model was developed to determine the statistical relationship between the number of crashes per mile per year and several variables such as traffic volume, access density, posted speed, and number of lanes. In regard to the methodology, in order to identify locations with safety concerns, several steps are needed: development of real crash data distribution, determination of statistical distribution models that better represent the actual crash data, determination of percentile values for the average number of crashes, estimation of crash rates for sections with the same characteristics, estimation of critical values for the variables corresponding to the percentile values for average number of crashes, calculation of tables of critical average annual daily traffic values, and generation of a list of TWLTL locations with critical safety concerns. Results presented in the paper have been used in real applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.