铁路工务安全状态预警决策支持系统构建研究

构建以"工务安全"为主题的预警决策支持系统是目前铁路安全管理发展的一个趋势,总结广深铁路工务安全状态预警决策支持系统建设经验,基于"以监测数据客观反映生产安全,以风险分析和安全评价方法指导安全管理,实现铁路工务安全状态预警决策支持目标"建设思想,通过基于数据仓库的工务安全信息集成、决策报表分析、数据挖掘分析和专家知识库预警等技术,提出构建铁路工务安全状态预警决策支持系统新方法.     

城市公共交通项目评价指标体系及评价方法研究

研究了实施城市公共交通项目宏观决策时,一般情况下需耍考虑的主要影响因素,并对 每个因素的意义和地位加以阐述,以指标体系的形式给出.在此基础上,引入了一个实用的评 价和决策方法,举例说明了如何使用该方法对城市公共交通项目进行评价.     

The measure and decision of technical risk in the development of naval vessels

The risks in development of navy vessels were explored, The resources of technical risk in the design and development of vessels were mentioned, It was pointed that technical risk dominated the other risk components. Based on the writers＇ understanding and experience from risk analysis and risk ,nanagement to the development of a navy vessel, four measure indexes of technical risk were presented. The decision criteria and the rules corresponding to the indexes were estahlished by the statistic information,     

列车编组计划决策支持系统的研究

列车编组计划方案的优化问题,是一个很重要而又复杂的决策问题。由于系统的庞大,涉及的因素众多,而且其中的许多是不确定的因素,因此需要使模型运算,人机交互,数据调用达到有机的统一,从而解决这一难题,为决策者提供有效的数据上的支持,满足铁路运输现代化建设的需要。本文从列车编组计划的系统要求分析出发,阐述了列车编组计划DSS计算机系统的总体结构和基本功能。     

多车道元胞自动机换道决策模型的冲突处理策略

换道模型是多车道元胞自动机交通流模型的核心子模块之一,在分析现实中驾驶员执行换道时处理车辆冲突过程的基础上,依据其蕴含的不同换道驾驶行为特征把驾驶员采取的换道冲突策略划分为保守型、机敏型与激进型3 类,并通过进一步优化车辆状态更新算法,提出了换道冲突处理多策略,车辆状态更新次序随机的多车道换道模型.运行模型获得不同空间占有率条件下,驾驶员分别采取保守、机敏或激进策略时所产生的换道动机次数和换道成功次数.通过数据分析发现：在特定空间占有率区间,不同换道冲突处理策略将引起较显著换道动机概率差异与换道成功概率差异.     

A BENCHMARK EXERCISE ON FUZZY SET THEORY BASED EXPERT JUDGEMENT TECHNIQUE

Introduction　　In the areas of every level of probabilistic riskassessment and management in nuclear powerplants,the application of subjective expert' s judg-ments is broadly in demand.The behind reason isprobably thatthe assessmentis usually performed,based on the limited data due to the scarcity of op-erating experience and/or on the incompleteknowledge due to the complexity of phenomenaembedded in severe accidents[1] .In the literature,subjective expert' s judgment is also called expertjud…     

基于决策偏好的ETC系统评价指标体系及评价方法

为更好地反映不同决策者对电子收费系统（ETC）评价的偏好,从政府、运营者和付费者三个主要利益主体的角度对ETC系统的评价指标及评价方法进行了研究。根据评价指标体系筛选原则,确定了基于决策偏好的ETC系统评价指标体系;通过综合分析成本-效益法（CBA）和数据包络分析法（DEA）的各自特点,依据基于决策偏好所确定的评价指标,同时引入当前一些比较好的算法来优化CBA,DEA和AHP法,建立数学模型,从而确立了基于决策偏好的综合评价方法。该方法较为全面地对ETC系统社会经济影响进行评价,所建立的指标体系和方法能更直观、更可靠地反映出决策者的决策偏好。     

谈融资决策中的资金成本及最佳资本结构

现代商品经济发展需要企业拥有雄厚的资本。企业自主筹资是企业自主经营,自负盈亏的客观要求,企业该如何科学的、准确的进行融资决策,是企业在竞争中立于不败的关键。以华汕电子公司为例阐述资金成本,筹资风险及最佳资本结构对融资决策的影响。     

Adapting the shipping sector to stricter emissions regulations: Fuel switching or installing a scrubber?

This paper examines how the existing fleet in the shipping industry can be adapted to the new emission regulations through the two main techniques that currently exist: (a) the use of low-sulphur marine diesels; and (b) the installation of scrubbers. A method is presented here for drawing up an economic assessment of both these techniques under uncertainty. It enables the best option to be selected at any given time taking into account fuel prices (spot and futures), scrubber installation costs, the time that the vessel operates in an Emission Control Area (ECA) and the remaining useful lifetime of the vessel. The paper also considers the possibility of an unexpected change from a non-ECA navigation area to an ECA. The assessment is carried out in a manner consistent with marine diesel and crude oil spot and futures market quotes. Our results show the net present value of investing in the installation of scrubbers and investing in changing fuel types for different assumptions on how vessels are operated. We also analyse increases in fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions as a consequence of using scrubbers and how they affects the financial analysis if such incremental emissions must be paid under a CO₂ pricing mechanism.     

基于C/S模式的职称评审系统的研究

遵循海军专业技术职务评审工作的要求，对实现海军专业技术职务评审辅助系统中的一些关键技术进行了研究，然后列出了一些实际开发中所遇到的问题并给出了解决方案。