铁路客货营销决策支持系统

应用数据仓库技术，提出了客货营销决策支持系统的逻辑结构，阐述了铁路客货营销信息的特征，论述了建设铁路客货营销数据仓库的必要性，围绕数据源组织、联机分析和数据挖掘等问题，对系统建设中的若干关键技术进行了探讨，认为统一数据策略与数据库模式是实现系统的关键。     

提高公路网规划决策的可靠性

提出了影响公路网规划方案正确决策的 3种因素和一种新的综合决策方法 ,并结合一个实例进行了详细地探讨 .     

基于随机森林算法的电力系统暂态稳定性评估

利用随机森林算法,通过组合多棵基于随机向量的决策树对电力系统的暂态稳定性分类,提出了一种暂态稳定评估模型.在IEEE 16机和IEEE 50机测试系统进行的仿真验证了该模型对暂态稳定评估的有效性,其评估性能较经典决策树算法、人工神经网络、支持向量机和K最近邻方法均有提高.     

出行前停车诱导系统中两阶段停车选择方法

为了同时解决机动车辆出行过程中停与行的问题,减少车辆巡泊产生的无效交通,提高出行效率,提出了服务于出行前停车诱导系统的两阶段停车选择方法.第一阶段是以停车场距目的地的步行距离、停车设施类型、有效停车泊位数、停车费用等4项指标对候选停车场进行初选;第二阶段为组合选择过程,以步行距离最短、停放可行性最高、停放成本最低、停放安全性最高、驾车至停车场行驶时间最短为优化目标,采用基于模糊偏好的多目标决策模型,为用户提供各候选停车场的决策排序.该方法求解效率高,且充分考虑驾车者意愿,适用于出行前的停车诱导系统.     

绕越干线公路网规划方案适应性评价体系研究

根据适应性的内涵,提出了绕越干线公路网适应性的目标,以此为基础构建出绕越干线公路网规划方案适应性评价指标体系,并运用多层次-灰色关联度评价方法进行规划方案综合评价,最终建立了绕越干线公路网适应性评价体系。     

灰色理论在交通事故预测的应用

采用GM(1,1)模型对重庆市高速公路重特大交通事故次数进行预测。在定性分析的基础上,把握原始数据的发展趋势,进而定义适当的序列算子,对算子作用后的序列建立GM(1,1)模型。通过预测结果的精度检验,可以说明:适当的序列算子可以提高预测精度。这一方法简单实效,可供参考。     

Classification decision tree algorithm assisting in diagnosing solitary pulmonary nodule by SPECT/CT fusion imaging

Objective To develop a classification tree algorithm to improve diagnostic performances of 99mTc-MIBI SPECT/CT fusion imaging in differentiating solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). Methods Forty-four SPNs, including 30 malignant cases and 14 benign ones that were eventually pathologically identified, were included in this prospective study. All patients received 99Tcm-MIBI SPECT/CT scanning at an early stage and a delayed stage before operation. Thirty predictor variables, including 11 clinical variables, 4 variables of emission and 15 variables of transmission information from SPECT/CT scanning, were analyzed independently by the classification tree algorithm and radiological residents. Diagnostic rules were demonstrated in tree-topology, and diagnostic performances were compared with Area under Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). Results A classification decision tree with lowest relative cost of 0.340 was developed for 99Tcm-MIBI SPECT/CT scanning in which the value of Target/Normal region of 99Tcm-MIBI uptake in the delayed stage and in the early stage, age, cough and specula sign were five most important contributors. The sensitivity and specificity were 93.33% and 78. 57e, respectively, a little higher than those of the expert. The sensitivity and specificity by residents of Grade one were 76.67% and 28.57%, respectively, and AUC of CART and expert was 0.886±0.055 and 0.829±0.062, respectively, and the corresponding AUC of residents was 0.566±0.092. Comparisons of AUCs suggest that performance of CART was similar to that of expert (P=0.204), but greater than that of residents (P<0.001). Conclusion Our data mining technique using classification decision tree has a much higher accuracy than residents. It suggests that the application of this algorithm will significantly improve the diagnostic performance of residents.     

综合运输系统协调发展的灰色关联度分析

针对综合运输这个复杂、抽象的巨系统,基于灰色系统理论,对影响其协调运行的因素进行灰色关联分析,弥补采用传统数理统计方法做系统分析时所导致的缺憾。     

Container Terminal Development in Mainland China and Its Impact on the Competitiveness of the Port of Hong Kong

In recent years, China's container ports have experienced a significant expansion in throughput and capacity. This paper provides a review of the sector and analyses the recent development of container ports and terminals within Mainland China. It then focuses in more depth on the competition between the ports of Shenzhen and Hong Kong. In particular, the port of Shenzhen is analysed in the context of Robinson's criteria for hub port development to try to discern whether it will become the dominant regional hub. The discussion concludes that despite Shenzhen's current competitive advantages, Hong Kong will, in all probability, retain its dominant role.     

Road pricing—some of the more neglected theoretical and policy implications

The intention of this paper has been to raise some doubts about the extent to which the control of congestion is understood, not as an engineering problem, but as a socio‐economic one concerned with making the most appropriate use of scarce resources.

Despite some doubts, it seems that the basic theory, as applied to a highly simplified situation, is technically correct. What is much less clear, however, is the extent to which the acceptance of this analysis as a basis for policy making in the real world is justified. Even if, qualitatively, its implications are correct, there are significant quantitative uncertainties. Given that governments, local and national, are still pouring considerable sums of money, both through subsidies and investment, into the relief of congestion, it is desirable to change this state of affairs. There seems to be ample scope for the transport economist, the transport planner and the transport engineer to contribute to a debate which has a long and, in places, distinguished pedigree, but where the outcome is as yet considerably outstripped by the importance and complexity of the problems which must be solved.