Infrastructure based approach for roadway departure risk assessment

This paper presents a warning device to prevent the roadway departure of light vehicles while cornering. The proposed risk assessment methodology is based on recent works from the authors (Rey et al., 2011b,a; Rey, 2010). Given the random variability arising from the driver, the vehicle and the infrastructure at the entrance to the curve, a probabilistic strategy is adopted to assess the roadway departure risk. The infrastructure-based methodology enables the real curve characteristics to be considered and an alarm triggering decision to be made. Two safety criteria are tested and the potential safety benefits of the proposed warning device are evaluated. Contrary to existing roadway departure warning systems, the proposed approach does not require extra equipment for vehicles; it only requires that the measuring and warning devices be part of the road infrastructure, which is a great advantage in terms of economic cost.     

Establishment of a Dredged Material Disposal Site in the Exclusive Economic Zone: New Zealand

Disposal options for muddy dredged material, especially if lightly contaminated, is an issue facing many countries, particularly if environmental protection and adherence to the Protocols of the London Dumping Convention is a regulatory requirement. For the case of the oceanic islands of New Zealand, disposal of muddy dredged material has become an issue for the prime city of Auckland. Accordingly, it has been necessary to investigate a suitable marine disposal site outside of the territorial seas in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Ideal properties for such a disposal site include a near flat surface on the continental shelf, with sediments of similar textural characteristics to the material being disposed, a site of non-critical benthic ecology, water depths sufficient to enable the disposal site to be monitored (as required under the London Dumping Convention), a site experiencing low shelf currents, not affected by significant wave agitation, and a site not of cultural significance. The approach for site establishment and gaining consent for disposal activities is reviewed. Preliminary investigations supporting a proposed site on the continental shelf in the EEZ are presented.     

大管轮适任评估中的增压器实操分析——以IHI-VTR161-2增压器为例

为达到实操教学效果,满足海事局的评估要求,针对大管轮动力设备拆装适任评估中,增压器的拆装、检查、测量中经常出现的问题,在调研的基础上,结合实际工作经验,以IHI-VTR161-2增压器为例总结归纳增压器拆装评估项目拆装检查要点及注意事项。     

基于属性数学的铁路重载运输安全评价

铁路重载运输设施设备要求高,确保其安全运行意义重大。属性数学理论主要研究和解决定性描述的度量和不同的定性描述之间的关系问题,基于此,从人员、设备、环境及管理4个方面建立包含3层级28项指标的铁路重载运输安全综合评价指标体系;采用德尔菲法和模糊统计法得到指标初始权值,并通过灰色关联法判断指标权值的合理性。建立铁路重载运输安全综合评价模型,重点利用属性集和属性测度理论研究并制定单指标等级划分标准,采取正规模糊子集以及置信度准则等方法构造属性测度函数以及属性识别准则。以呼和浩特铁路局大包线重载运输为例,应用所建模型评价其安全等级,评价结果符合呼和浩特铁路局实际情况,表明所建模型能较好适用于铁路重载运输安全综合评价。     

北京地铁隧道地表横向沉降槽参数分析

为解决北京地铁隧道施工不同影响区划分和影响范围确定的不准确问题,对北京地区13 条地铁线路、903 份隧道工程的地表横向沉降槽资料进行分析,根据施工方法和地层条件的不同,分别对盾构法和矿山法施工隧道在黏性土地层、砂卵石地层等区域的沉降槽Peck 公式拟合参数进行统计分析,得出地层损失率和宽度参数的分布形态、相关统计值以及与隧道相对埋深的相关性。研究结果表明: 1)地层损失率和宽度参数的数理统计结果可以很好地指导北京及类似地层条件的城市地铁隧道工程影响区划分和影响范围的确定; 2)施工方法和地层条件是影响地铁隧道周围地层变形的重要因素,工程地表变形控制应注重相关研究; 3)建议各地深入开展地铁隧道沉降槽的拟合分析研究,为隧道工程影响区划分和影响范围确定提供科学依据。     

Comparing Fisher Interviews,Logbooks, and Catch Landings Estimates of Extraction Rates in a Small-Scale Fishery

Researchers are turning to alternative data sources (e.g., resource user knowledge) to provide information required for wildlife management. Little is known about the reliability of data elicited from resource users relative to data obtained from user-independent approaches (e.g., observations of fish catches). We test for consensus among three methods that quantify past (1996 to 2007) seahorse catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) for a small-scale, data-poor fishery in the Philippines: interviews with fishers about good, bad, and typical catch; fisher logbooks; and observations of catch landings. Interviews and logbooks indicated no trends in CPUE through time, consistent with results from the fisher-independent metric, catch landings. Although interview estimates of “typical” CPUE greatly exceeded “typical” observed catches and logbook estimates, interview estimates of “bad” CPUE were comparable. Catch landings estimates for a fisher in a particular year were uncorrelated to what he reported during retrospective interviews. Interviews should be used cautiously to inform specific catch targets (e.g., total allowable catches), although including interview questions about a range of catch experiences (e.g., good, bad and typical), may improve interview-derived data. Logbooks are particularly useful for capturing information about fishing expeditions that produce no fish, which are largely missed by other methods.     

船舶防污染作业等级评定量化研究

文章应用模糊数学评估方法,建立船舶防污染作业等级评定模型,为量化研究船舶防污染作业单位安全状况提供了具体的方法和依据。最后结合辖区实际进行了验证。     

基于混沌递进预测模型与趋势检验的深基坑变形规律研究

为提高基坑变形预测精度及稳定性,首先,利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络的结构参数,再将参数优化后的BP神经网络与灰色模型结合,构建出GA-BP神经网络模型,并利用该模型实现基坑变形序列的初步预测; 其次,基于残差序列的混沌特性,再利用混沌理论进行残差优化,进一步构建考虑混沌特性优化的GA-BP神经网络模型; 最后,将SR检验引入到基坑变形趋势判断中,以检验预测结果的准确性。实例检验表明： 通过遗传算法及混沌理论的递进优化,能逐步提高预测精度,验证文章预测模型的有效性,且预测结果与SR检验结果的一致性较好,说明该预测模型的可信度高。     

邻近建筑物条件下青岛地铁盾构施工风险评价

以往构建的邻近建筑条件下地铁盾构施工风险指标没有考虑指标间的相关性,且忽略专家的犹豫程度,首先从方法创新的角度利用决策实验室法（DEMATEL）确定准则层间综合影响关系,作为控制层结构关系构建网络层次结构模型,求出DEMATEL和ANP相结合的主观混合权重; 再以熵权法求解客观权重,采用主客观权重偏差平方和最小为目标函数求解组合权重; 最后考虑了专家犹豫程度,运用vague集法进行施工风险评价。通过计算得出青岛地铁1号线安安区段风险等级与工程实际相符合,进而验证了该评价方法的实用性。     

大瑞铁路高黎贡山隧道原岩温度预测

随着深埋长隧道需求数量的增加,高地温热害问题越来越突出,严重影响到施工人员的安全及工作效率,需要根据地温的分布特征来对隧道高温地段采取必要的降温措施。结合大瑞铁路高黎贡山隧道的地质、地温实测资料及通过“谷地地理信息系统”获取的地形数据,采用基于地质演化历史计算原岩温度的数学模型,编制相应的计算程序对高黎贡山大瑞铁路隧道进行原岩温度预测,并对隧址区的温度场沿洞线方向进行简单划分,为隧道采用有效的降温措施提供必要的地温场数据。通过计算分析可以得出： 1）沿隧道向瑞丽方向,隧道原岩温度有先增大后减小的趋势,最高点温度为31.73 ℃; 2）隧道开始大约2.5 km以内及18 km至隧道终点段,隧道岩温在28 ℃以下; 3）2.5~18 km段隧道岩温为28~31.73 ℃,其中高于28 ℃区域需要采取实时温度监控措施。