Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

考虑异质性的经典随机后悔最小化模型改进研究

传统基于后悔理论的交通行为模型对异质性考虑不充分，对真实选择行为的解释存在不足.本文利用韦伯比率，考虑出行者对各方式属性变量感知的异质性，对经典随机后悔最小化模型进行改进，分别建立基于随机效用最大化，经典随机后悔最小化和改进经典随机后悔最小化的选择模型；以网约车选择行为为例进行实证研究，验证改进模型效果.结果表明：3种模型参数标定结果具有一致性，改进模型的拟合优度(0.271)和命中率(75.8%)相较于另外两个模型均较优；改进模型能更好地描述多维属性决策过程中的半补偿原则和折中效应，可以提高模型对真实选择行为的解释能力.     

Exploring vessel-price dynamics: the case of the dry bulk market

We investigate second-hand vessel price heterogeneity. Based on a sample of 5,591 purchase and sale transactions in the dry bulk sector over the period 1998–2016, we deploy a nonparametric regression technique to assess the determinants of vessel price and vessel price variability. Next, we use quantile regression to estimate the effect of regressors (sources of heterogeneity) at different parts of the vessel price distribution. We find evidence that main sources of vessel price heterogeneity are the age of the ship (the older the vessel the higher its maintenance cost), the 3-month LIBOR (reflecting the cost of financing) and the annual charter rate (revenues from operation). Their influence is stronger at all higher quantiles (periods of expansion) and the median of the vessel price distribution.     

Optimal multi-step toll design under general user heterogeneity

This paper studies the optimal multi-step toll design problem for the bottleneck model with general user heterogeneity. The design model is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC), which is NP-hard due to non-convexity in both the objective function and the feasible set. An analytical method is proposed to solve the MPEC by decomposing it into smaller and easier quadratic programs, each corresponding to a unique departure order of different user classes. The quadratic programs are defined on a polyhedral set, which makes it easier to identify a local optimum. Importantly, each quadratic program is constrained by a set of linear feasibility cuts that define the presence of each user class in the arrival window. We prove that the proposed method ensures global optimality provided that each quadratic program can be solved globally. To obviate enumerating all departure orders, a heuristic method is developed to navigate through the solution space by using the multipliers associated with the feasibility cuts. Numerical experiments are conducted on several small examples to validate the proposed methodology. These experiments show that the proposed heuristic method is effective in finding near-optimal solutions within a relatively small number of iterations.     

考虑潜在类别的老年行人交通事故严重程度致因分析

人口老龄化问题日益突出，老年行人的出行安全同样引起各界重视。本文基于潜在类别聚类分析和随机参数Logit模型相结合的两步法深入探究影响老年行人交通事故严重程度的诱因。对北卡罗来纳州2007—2019年65岁及以上老年行人与机动车的碰撞数据进行清洗。为消除碰撞数据中固有的未观察到的异质性，首先进行潜在类别聚类分析，依据拟合优度指标确定最佳聚类数，将数据分成3个集群，分别对每个集群进行特征描述。然后，分别对每个集群建立随机参数Logit模型，以进一步探索集群内部未观察到的异质性，同时计算各显著变量的边际效应，量化其对事故严重程度概率的影响。结果显示，随机参数Logit模型具有更好的拟合优度；不同集群参数估计结果有所差异，一些变量只在特定集群内是显著的；集群1中，“救护车援助”为随机变量，集群2中“事故发生在城市”为随机变量，集群3中未发现随机变量，退化为多项Logit模型。本文研究结果可为交通工程师和政策制定者提供更可靠准确的老年行人交通事故严重程度诱因信息，为老年行人出行安全改善方案的制定提供理论支撑和技术支持。     

单相动作电位同步记录电极的建立和应用

目的　设计跨心室壁三层单相动作电位(MAP)同步记录电极,为跨心室壁复极异质性的在体研究提供有效途径。方法　以改造的 12 号不锈钢针头为外鞘,按先后顺序将彼此绝缘的外、中、内膜电极依次与外鞘组装,经过绝缘性、电导通性检测后,分别在体记录了兔、犬跨左心室壁内、中、外膜心肌的单相动作电位和心电图。结果　①兔左心室前壁内、中、外三层单相动作电位形态各不相同,中、外膜层 MAP复极起始部分具有典型的“峰和圆顶”特征,内膜层MAP复极过程中不存在明显切迹;在心率为272 次/min时,兔左心室内、中、外层心肌动作电位时程分别为 140、140、130 ms;动作电位幅度分别为17.5、19.31、11.51 mV。②犬中、外膜层心肌复极起始部分具有“峰和圆顶”特征,中膜层心肌1期切迹不如外膜层典型,内膜层心肌复极1期仅有小的切迹;心率为 139 次/min时,犬内、中、外层心肌动作电位时程分别为230、250、200 ms;动作电位幅度分别为46.33、66.41、43.30 mV。结论　自制单相动作电位能清晰、有效的记录在体动物跨心室壁各层的动作电位,可用于跨心室壁复极异质性的在体实验研究。     

A probabilistic stationary speed–density relation based on Newell’s simplified car-following model

Probabilistic models describing macroscopic traffic flow have proven useful both in practice and in theory. In theoretical investigations of wide-scatter in flow–density data, the statistical features of flow density relations have played a central role. In real-time estimation and traffic forecasting applications, probabilistic extensions of macroscopic relations are widely used. However, how to obtain such relations, in a manner that results in physically reasonable behavior has not been addressed. This paper presents the derivation of probabilistic macroscopic traffic flow relations from Newell’s simplified car-following model. The probabilistic nature of the model allows for investigating the impact of driver heterogeneity on macroscopic relations of traffic flow. The physical features of the model are verified analytically and shown to produce behavior which is consistent with well-established traffic flow principles. An empirical investigation is carried out using trajectory data from the New Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) program and the model’s ability to reproduce real-world traffic data is validated.     

考虑偏好差异的后疫情时代居民出行方式选择行为研究

为探究后疫情时代居民出行方式选择行为，运用选择实验的方法，基于问卷调查获得选择行为数据，构建出行方式选择的混合Logit模型和潜在类别条件Logit模型。采用Stata软件标定模型参数，得到后疫情时代影响居民出行方式选择的主要因素。结果表明，两种模型均体现了个体出行方式选择的异质性，潜在类别条件Logit模型与混合Logit模型相比拟合优度提高了13%， 预测精度提高了3.03%，为突发公共卫生事件下分析出行行为的个体异质性提供了一种有效工具。潜在类别条件Logit模型根据居民所处低、中风险区两种情景，分别将居民划分为4类、5类人 群。从出行方式属性上看，等待时间和在途时间成为居民选择出行方式最重要的影响因素。从个人社会经济属性上看，在后疫情时代收入更高的女性更倾向选择私家车出行，年龄越大对行程费用越敏感，男性更愿意选择公交、地铁出行。     

Dynamic congestion pricing with day-to-day flow evolution and user heterogeneity

This paper investigates evolutionary implementation of congestion pricing schemes to minimize the system cost and time, measured in monetary and time units, respectively, with the travelers’ day-to-day route adjustment behavior and their heterogeneity. The travelers’ heterogeneity is captured by their value-of-times. First, the multi-class flow dynamical system is proposed to model the travelers’ route adjustment behavior in a tolled transportation network with multiple user classes. Then, the stability condition and properties of equilibrium is examined. We further investigate the trajectory control problem via dynamic congestion pricing scheme to derive the system cost, time optimum, and generally, Pareto optimum in the sense of simultaneous minimization of system cost and time. The trajectory control problem is modeled by a differential–algebraic system with the differential sub-system capturing the flow dynamics and the algebraic one capturing the pricing constraint. The explicit Runge–Kutta method is proposed to calculate the dynamic flow trajectories and anonymous link tolls. The method allows the link tolls to be updated with any predetermined periods and forces the system cost and/or time to approach the optimum levels. Both analytical and numerical examples are adopted to examine the efficiency of the method.     

高功率因数变流器在电力推进船舶谐波抑制中的应用

变流设备的广泛使用导致电力推进船舶电网大量谐波的产生和功率因数的降低。介绍两种治理谐波的主要措施——功率因数校正和多相整流技术,探讨了一种能提高功率因数的电力变流电路——高功率因数变流器,并对由移相电抗器构造的12脉波整流技术进行原理简述,给出了高功率因数三相无源变流器的电路拓扑结构与仿真模型。仿真结果表明,使用高功率因数变流器既能有效地抑制谐波又能提高功率因数。