短时交通流预测方法研究进展

实时准确高效的交通流预测是实现交通流诱导和交通控制的关键技术之一,近年来它在智能运输领域受到广泛关注。本文首先介绍了短时交通流的属性和预测要求,接着将现有预测方法分成4类：基于线性理论的方法、基于非线性理论的方法、基于混合理论的方法和基于交通流理论的方法,并且总结评述了现有各种预测模型的优缺点,之后探讨了当今短时交通流预测领域的研究热点,最后指出了其未来研究方向．     

二乘二取二与双机热备计算机联锁系统性能比较

计算机联锁系统是铁路信号的重要基础设备.随着铁路信号技术的更新换代,近年来二乘二取二和双机热备成为我国铁路联锁系统的2种主流制式.从系统的实际应用出发,利用马尔可夫模型,充分考虑了故障覆盖率、维修率等因素的影响,对系统的可靠性与安全性进行了深入分析;通过MTTF值和可靠度、安全度曲线比较了2种系统的性能.论文分析结果对计算机联锁系统的应用与推广具有切实的指导意义.     

基于RBF神经网络的不利天气道路通行能力计算

不利天气下影响城市道路通行能力的各种因素都具有随机的、非线性,采用常态条件下修正理论通行能力的计算方法是不适合的.文章结合RBF神经网络模型方法能够良好地分析出随机的、非线性的特点,对路网组成单元进行重新划分,选定不利天气下道路通行能力的影响因素,建立了道路通行能力计算的RBF神经网络模型.并依据哈尔滨市暴雨天气下道路的实际情况进行了算例分析,计算的道路通行能力与实测数据最大误差为-1.16%,验证了模型的可行性和有效性.     

微波现场加热再生关键问题研究

针对沥青路面现场热再生采用红外加热方式存在的不足,介绍了微波加热再生的应用及国内外研究的进展情况,提出微波加热再生要着重解决的加热温度控制、温度测量、辐射防护和技术经济性分析4个关键问题。对2 450MHz的微波加热系统,采用辐射型喇叭腔体加热结构,分析比较了场强衰减加热模型和均匀场强加热模型,基于均匀场强模型建立了控制沥青混合料温度分布辐射场型结构的一维微波加热模型;从试验和实际应用的角度对微波加热再生中的温度测量、辐射防护进行了探讨;并比较红外加热再生与微波加热再生的技术经济性,从而说明微波加热再生具有快速、再生率高、无污染等特点,有较好的应用前景。     

铁路站间自动闭塞信息传输和热备的研究

针对将继电半自动闭塞改造为微机化的站间自动闭塞这一转换模式进行研究.同时,对在改造过程中遇到的一些问题提出了自己的解决方法.在这种改造过程中,我们以计轴器代替了原有的闭塞办理逻辑,实现对区间的防护.因此,如何实现轴数的准确传递以及信息的热备成为需要解决的问题,针对这两个问题进行了深入的探讨和研究.     

Utilizing naturalistic driving data for in-depth analysis of driver lane-keeping behavior in rain: Non-parametric MARS and parametric logistic regression modeling approaches

It is known that adverse weather conditions can affect driver performance due to reduction in visibility and slippery surface conditions. Lane keeping is one of the main factors that might be affected by weather conditions. Most of the previous studies on lane keeping have investigated driver lane-keeping performance from driver inattention perspective. In addition, the majority of previous lane-keeping studies have been conducted in controlled environments such as driving simulators. Therefore, there is a lack of studies that investigate driver lane-keeping ability considering adverse weather conditions in naturalistic settings. In this study, the relationship between weather conditions and driver lane-keeping performance was investigated using the SHRP2 naturalistic driving data for 141 drivers between 19 and 89 years of age. Moreover, a threshold was introduced to differentiate lane keeping and lane changing in naturalistic driving data. Two lane-keeping models were developed using the logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to better understand factors affecting driver lane-keeping ability considering adverse weather conditions. The results revealed that heavy rain can significantly increase the standard deviation of lane position (SDLP), which is a very widely used method for analyzing lane-keeping ability. It was also found that traffic conditions, driver age and experience, and posted speed limits have significant effects on driver lane-keeping ability. An interesting finding of this study is that drivers have a better lane-keeping ability in roadways with higher posted speed limits. The results from this study might provide better insights into understanding the complex effect of adverse weather conditions on driver behavior.     

基于裂纹扩展的海洋平台疲劳可靠性分析

文章基于裂纹疲劳基本理论,针对在役导管架平台出现初始裂纹状态下结构承载力进行分析,考虑结构损伤与腐蚀等因素,建立了典型导管架平台整体结构模型和局部子模型,分析了在该工况下平台整体结构的疲劳强度,并确定了平台结构的疲劳关键部位。采用几何应力外插法计算了热点应力,基于疲劳裂纹扩展的疲劳分析方法,计算了疲劳关键节点的疲劳寿命与疲劳可靠度。该方法能够为海洋平台结构的维护和保养提供一定参考。     

隧道防水板无锚钉铺设技术

隧道防水板无锚钉铺设技术主要是靠塑料圆垫片和防水板热熔粘贴而实现的 ,从而克服了锚钉固定法和悬吊法施工中的缺点 ,实现了防水层的完整性和密实性 ,提高了衬砌防水的可靠性     

空间天气对导航卫星的影响

简要介绍了空间天气的基本概念,对灾害性空间天气可能对导航卫星所产生的主要影响进行了探索;进而着重分析了电离层电子密度、电离层暴、电离层突然骚扰等空间天气要素对卫星导航定位系统的影响。     

A probabilistic framework for weather-based rerouting and delay estimations within an Airspace Planning model

In this paper, we develop a novel severe weather-modeling paradigm to be applied within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and collaborative decision-making model in order to reroute flights with respect to a specified probability threshold of encountering severe weather, subject to collision safety, airline equity, and sector workload considerations. This approach serves as an alternative to the current practice adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of adjusting flight routes in accordance with the guidelines specified in the National Playbook. Our innovative contributions in this paper include (a) the concept of “Probability-Nets” and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service; (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability threshold levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Additionally, we conduct an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. Computational results and insights are presented based on flight test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System data provided by the FAA and using weather scenarios derived from the Model Output Statistics forecast data provided by the National Weather Service.