一种基于隶属度最大化的组合赋权法

为了综合反映主观赋权法和客观赋权法的信息,本文提出了一种基于隶属度最大化的组合赋权法,方法依据最终权重与已知权重尽可能贴近的思想,建立确定权重的优化模型,通过求解该优化模型得出最终权重,并通过算例分析说明方法的有效性。     

神经网络预测的计算机CPU利用率系统研究

在构建的计算机CPU利用率神经网络预测系统中,比较论证了信息传输函数Sigmoid与Tanh的优越性。     

基于hp自适应伪谱法的智能汽车紧急变道轨迹规划与优化

为了提高智能汽车紧急变道轨迹规划的实时性和适应性,将紧急变道过程分为初始阶段和跟踪阶段,初始阶段的轨迹由优秀驾驶人紧急变道模型产生,跟踪阶段的轨迹采用Sigmoid函数规划出紧急避让路径。首先通过聚类分析处理优秀驾驶人转向操作的实车试验数据,拟合得出紧急变道过程中的方向盘转角随时间的关系（即驾驶人紧急变道模型）,作为智能汽车在紧急变道初始阶段不同速度下车辆控制的输入量。然后通过建立与求解约束方程,满足避撞约束、侧向位移约束以及最大侧向加速度约束,得出Sigmoid函数表达式,作为智能汽车在紧急变道过程跟踪阶段的参考路径。最后利用hp自适应伪谱法加入切换点的物理量约束,逼近全局正交多项式的状态量和控制量,自动调整和处理2个阶段的切换点位置和衔接问题,以最小变道距离为目标对跟踪阶段的变道轨迹进行优化。运用PreScan与MATLAB对4种不同工况下的紧急变道轨迹规划进行联合仿真。结果表明：提出的轨迹规划与优化方法在满足各项约束的情况下成功避开障碍物,同时缩短了需要优化的轨迹,优化时间都小于0.9 s,并且与基于多项式函数轨迹规划方法相比,该方法能够以距障碍物较远的距离避开障碍物,在不同的车辆速度、道路曲率和障碍物宽度的复杂工况下具有更好的适应性。     

A translog cost function of the integrated air freight business: The case of FedEx and UPS

This paper analyzes the cost structure of the integrated air freight business by means of a translog cost function. This allows to extend knowledge on the supply side and to examine if strategies of integrators are consistent with cost structure. The cost function is based on quarterly time-series data from 1990 to 2010 for FedEx and UPS. A total and a variable model are estimated. In addition, a static as well as a dynamic approach is followed. We find that integrators exhibit strong scale and density economies in the short and the long term. This result is in line with the aggressive expansion and cooperation strategies pursued by integrators. Our results indicate that the concentration in the integrated air freight industry will continue: a concern for industry actors and regulatory agencies.     

船舶自动电站功能模型的建立探究

本文根据笔者设计多个船舶自动电站的经验，收集和总结了船舶全自动电站一般的常见功能要求和控制流程。     

宁波市东外环江南公路互通立交设计方案研究

东外环江南公路立交是宁波城市路网中的一个重要节点。该文对立交设计过程中的交通特征分析、立交功能定位、主要控制因素、设计思路和方案比选等主要阶段进行了深入研究,最终提出了优化设计方案。     

内河航运与区域经济相关关系

为了揭示内河航运与区域经济间的作用机理, 以上海内河航运为研究对象, 建立了基于Logistic曲线和协整理论的内河航运与区域经济的伴生关系分析模型, 并分别应用生产函数法、主成分分析法、方差分析法和数据包络法测算了内河航运量对GDP的贡献度。计算结果表明: 内河航运与区域经济具有类似的发展规律, 即在发展初期增速很快, 发展到一定阶段后, 增长率逐渐减慢, 直到平稳状态, 两者之间存在着很强的伴生关系; 内河航运对区域经济的贡献度均稳定在2%~4%之间。     

Dynamic pricing for managed lanes with multiple entrances and exits

Priced managed lanes are increasingly being used to better utilize the existing capacity of the roadway to relieve congestion and offer reliable travel time to road users. In this paper, we investigate the optimization problem for pricing managed lanes with multiple entrances and exits which seeks to maximize the revenue and minimize the total system travel time (TSTT) over a finite horizon. We propose a lane choice model where travelers make online decisions at each diverge point considering all routes on a managed lane network. We formulate the problem as a deterministic Markov decision process and solve it using the value function approximation (VFA) method for different initializations. We compare the performance of the toll policies predicted by the VFA method against the myopic revenue policy which maximizes the revenue only at the current timestep and two heuristic policies based on the measured densities on the managed and general purpose lanes (GPLs). We test the results on four different test networks. The primary findings from our research suggest the usefulness of the VFA method for determining dynamic tolls. The best-found objective value from the method at its termination is better than other heuristics for all test networks with average improvements in the objective ranging between 10% and 90% for revenue maximization and 0–27% for TSTT minimization. Certain VFA initializations obtain best-found toll profiles within first 5–50 iterations which warrants computational time savings. Our findings also indicate that the revenue-maximizing optimal policies follow the “jam-and-harvest” behavior where the GPLs are pushed towards congestion in the earlier time steps to generate higher revenue in the later time steps, a characteristic not observed for the policies minimizing TSTT.     

Forecasting short-term subway passenger flow under special events scenarios using multiscale radial basis function networks

Reliable and accurate short-term subway passenger flow prediction is important for passengers, transit operators, and public agencies. Traditional studies focus on regular demand forecasting and have inherent disadvantages in predicting passenger flows under special events scenarios. These special events may have a disruptive impact on public transportation systems, and should thus be given more attention for proactive management and timely information dissemination. This study proposes a novel multiscale radial basis function (MSRBF) network for forecasting the irregular fluctuation of subway passenger flows. This model is simplified using a matching pursuit orthogonal least squares algorithm through the selection of significant model terms to produce a parsimonious MSRBF model. Combined with transit smart card data, this approach not only exhibits superior predictive performance over prevailing computational intelligence methods for non-regular demand forecasting at least 30 min prior, but also leverages network knowledge to enhance prediction capability and pinpoint vulnerable subway stations for crowd control measures. Three empirical studies with special events in Beijing demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can effectively predict the emergence of passenger flow bursts.     

地铁车辆逆变器回流电流谐波的理论推导

论述在直流供电的地铁系统中,逆变器的回流电流与信号电流都在回流轨中传输,回流电流中的谐波含量势必会时信号电流的传输造成影响。介绍以往在现场测试中对这种影响所进行的评估分析,认为相对于干扰因素较多的现场实测来说,对回流电流谐波的含量进行理论推导更具有普遍意义及可信性。为给谐波对信号的干扰研究提供理论帮助,采用开关函数原理,推导逆变器回流电流的数学表达,并通过仿真验证了数学推导的正确性。