法、澳、美三国现代有轨电车运营事故统计与分析

分析了法国、澳大利亚和美国的现代有轨电车运营事故统计报告与道路交通事故报告,从现代有轨电车运营事故类型、人员伤亡分布规律、事故发生地点分布规律、不同路权下事故分布规律,以及事故参与者行为等方面,总结了现代有轨电车运营事故的发生机理与影响因素,得出了对于道路交叉口处安全状态的研究是现代有轨电车运营安全管理的核心,路权的封闭与隔离能提高现代有轨电车的运营安全等结论,对我国现代有轨电车运营管理与安全评价具有指导意义。     

交通事件和干预作用影响下的高速公路车流波分析

运用流体力学车流波理论,分析了交通事件和干预措施综合作用下对车流状态的影响,建立了基于车速———交通密度一般模型下的车流波波速模型、干预作用产生的干预波和交通事件影响产生的集结波、启动波、消散波相互作用产生的车流波位置和对应时刻模型以及分流干预措施解除时刻模型.这些模型或关键参数的确定,为有效确定事件处理方案,尽快消除拥挤或阻塞提供了理论依据.     

基于改进OLS算法的RBF神经网络 高速公路事件探测

提出了一种基于模糊聚类技术和RBF神经网络的混合智能高速公路事件自动探测算法,同时改进了用于RBF神经网络训练的Oils(正交最小二乘)选择算法.仿真实验证明,改进的OLS选择算法大大提高了RBF神经网络的训练速度同时具有无须事先确定RBF中心的优点,将之运用于公路事件探测可以获得满意的性能.     

道路交通事故伤害对家庭、社会中远期影响的研究（续前）

3讨论 3．1道路交通事故中致残人群心理障碍分析 道路交通事故致残人群心理障碍明显高于正常人群。本次调研的道路交通事故致残人群平均致残时间为14年。从表3、表4可以看出道路交通事故致残人群心理障碍程度不会因致残时间延长而心理障碍减轻．反而有所增加。     

Development of a maximum likelihood regression tree-based model for predicting subway incident delay

This study aims to develop a maximum likelihood regression tree-based model to predict subway incident delays, which are major negative impacts caused by subway incidents from the commuter’s perspective. Using the Hong Kong subway incident data from 2005 and 2009, a tree comprising 10 terminal nodes is selected to predict subway incident delays in a case study. An accelerated failure time (AFT) analysis is conducted separately for each terminal node. The goodness-of-fit results show that our developed model outperforms the traditional AFT models with fixed and random effects because it can overcome the heterogeneity problem and over-fitting effects. The developed model is beneficial for subway engineers looking to propose effective strategies for reducing subway incident delays, especially in super-large-sized cities with huge public travel demand.     

The impacts of connected vehicle technology on network-wide traffic operation and fuel consumption under various incident scenarios

ABSTRACT

Incidents are a major source of traffic congestion and can lead to long and unpredictable delays, deteriorating traffic operations and adverse environmental impacts. The emergence of connected vehicles and communication technologies has enabled travelers to use real-time traffic information. The ability to exchange traffic information among vehicles has tremendous potential impacts on network performance especially in the case of non-recurrent congestion. To this end, this paper utilizes a microscopic simulation model of traffic in El Paso, Texas to investigate the impacts of incidents on traffic operation and fuel consumption at different market penetration rates (MPR) of connected vehicles. Several scenarios are implemented and tested to determine the impacts of incidents on network performance in an urban area. The scenarios are defined by changing the duration of incidents and the number of lanes closed. This study also shows how communication technology affects network performance in response to congestion. The results of the study demonstrate the potential effectiveness of connected vehicle technology in improving network performance. For an incident with a duration of 900?s and MPR of 80%, total fuel consumption and total travel time decreased by approximately 20%; 26% was observed in network-wide travel time and fuel consumption at 100% MPR.     

Burnout in seafarers: its antecedents and effects on incidents at sea

Seafarer health and well-being has long been a concern in the shipping industry because of the unique characteristics of working at sea. This paper aims to identify the role of burnout in seafarer health and well-being and its effect on safety. In particular, we differentiated seafarer burnout into personal and work-related burnout to reflect the ambiguous distinction between rest and work in seafarers’ job environment. We also investigate the effectiveness of emotion regulation for seafarers to reduce burnout. This study proposes a conceptual framework to identify the causal relationship between occupational stress, sleepiness, emotion regulation, burnout, and incidents at sea. To verify the proposed framework, scales were adapted from established scales in the literature; a cross-sectional survey was also conducted to collect empirical data for analysis with path and simultaneous equation models. The analysis results revealed that personal and work-related burnout in seafarers are mutually affected; however, only work-related burnout exerts a direct effect on incidents. Reappraisal is an effective emotion regulation strategy in seafarers to reduce personal burnout, but not work-related burnout. Occupational stress and sleepiness exert positive effects on both personal and work-related burnout; yet, their effect on incidents is mediated by work-related burnout.     

基于完全信息静态博弈论的工程安全监管分析

利用博弈论为工程安全监管提供一个示范,提出了“边际政绩收益”概念,为政府安全监管提供一个参考指标,并且通过安全监管博弈分析,建立博弈模型,对模型进行求解,对工程监管决策中可控因素进行计算,得到一些有利于我国工程安全监管决策的结论．     

浅议海事应急指挥系统的建设

我国目前处在突发公共事件的高发时期,而且在未来很长一段时间内,我国都将面临突发公共事件所带来的严峻考验。越来越多的人认识到,加强重大危机应对工作势在必行。本文作者从信息化建设的角度对突发公共事件应对措施进行了研究,结合海事工作实际提出了应急指挥系统的功能需求及建设思路,并对系统建设中要注意的问题进行了分析,期望对读者有所启发和帮助。