港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为,将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量,构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明,低运量倾向选择公路运输,托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视,对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视,陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响,巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.     

深圳市长途公路客运市场的现状思考

要想从根本上解决目前深圳市公路客运市场无序的问题,政府就必须下狠心、动真格的,对目前的公路客运市场动一次“大手术”;要从体制改革入手解决现有运营企业的多头管理、政企不分、站运不分等弊端,同时,加大运政监管力度,杜绝公路客运市场违规现象的发生。     

Effects of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative on the wine import logistics of China

China’s Belt and Road (BR) initiative is expected to facilitate international trade between the countries involved. In this study, we review the special requirements of wine logistics and the market growth potential of wine consumption in China. A model minimizing generalized logistical costs is developed and applied to wine imports in China, so that the best candidate cities in which to locate transport gateways and distribution centers can be identified. Our analysis suggests that the most preferred gateways are Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, which all have similar delivery costs. In comparison, Beijing and Chongqing have much higher delivery costs, mainly because they do not have good access to marine transport and/or efficient domestic distribution networks. For long-distance intercontinental transport of large volumes of wine, marine shipping remains the only viable delivery mode. However, wine distribution within China extensively uses air, road, and water transport. Therefore, cities with excellent multi-modal transport services are better positioned to become wine logistics gateways. Our study also highlights the importance of value-added services and good government support, which are important factors that influence distribution costs and quality.     

Incomplete cost – incomplete benefit analysis in transport appraisal

This paper examines the current application of transport appraisal in the UK, in particular exploring the partiality of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) within the wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) process. It argues that applying a quantitative assessment of the varied impacts of complex transport projects can only be partial within the CBA. Analysis can overlook social, human life, environmental and built environment impacts, and projects can be inconsistent with the planning strategy for an area. The application of CBA is critically reviewed using two case studies: the proposed upgrade of the South Fylde railway line and the Heysham-M6 Link Road, both from North West England. A participatory MCA process is suggested to help improve the process of transport appraisal, as part of an improved public debate on transport investment priorities.     

AASHTO概率模型在船桥碰撞风险评估中的应用

近年来随着航道等级的提升,设计通航船舶尺度增大,要求的通航净空尺度增加,桥区通航水域条件发生显著变化。桥梁存在船撞风险,需对船撞桥梁风险实施评估、为实施防撞设施工程提供依据。国内外因船舶撞击而导致桥梁垮塌或严重破坏的事故逐渐增多,平均每年就有一座大型桥梁因为船舶撞击而遭受严重破坏甚至倒塌。北江航道乌石至三水河口航段经整治由Ⅳ级提升为Ⅲ级后,桥梁存在船撞风险。以船撞桥概率模型(AASHTO)为研究方法,分析了整治河段清远北江二桥参数对船撞桥概率的影响,计算了船舶撞击桥梁各涉水桥墩的年撞击概率,确定了存在较大船撞风险的桥梁与涉水桥墩,建立了船撞桥损伤概率模型,分析桥梁各部位抗撞能力、桥梁各部位船舶撞击力及各部位的年撞击频率,得出通航孔桥墩的年撞击倒塌频率。     

长江口深水航道治理工程不同阶段北槽丁坝群坝田泥沙冲淤分析

根据长江口深水航道治理工程不同阶段的地形分析,定量分析不同工程阶段影响下北槽丁坝群坝田冲淤厚度以及地形变化。结果表明:在不同的工程阶段,北槽南北侧坝田冲淤差异受工程进度影响,总体呈逐年淤积趋势,南北侧坝田呈"洪季多淤、枯季少淤积"的状态,北侧坝田淤积厚度大于南侧。北槽主槽与坝田地形变化在2010年之前变化较大,2010年之后,主槽基本趋于稳定,变化较缓,坝田则持续淤积。     

基于GIS的航道辅助设计平台的设计与实现

基于航道地理空间特性和航道设计相关规范及工作流程,选用Arc GIS作为基本框架,经多项关键技术开发构建而成航道辅助设计平台。平台具有自然条件分析、河床演变分析、航道尺度计算及选线布置等设计功能,并配置水深数据识别、地形坐标转换等通用工具,可对航道基础数据和设计成果进行综合管理,初步实现专业间设计协同,基本达成航道设计工作的标准化和提高工作效率的目标。     

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.     

甩挂运输半挂车电子标识技术研究

针对现阶段的道路运输远程监控体系中无法识别半挂车的身份与特征信息的问题,通过对甩挂运输企业、站(场)、整车生产企业进行广泛调研,文中提出了基于RFID无线射频技术的甩挂运输半挂车身份电子标识技术要求,分析了电子标识具体技术参数的限值范围,为规范甩挂运输半挂车身份电子标识的发展提供了技术支撑。     

Logit模型在南广高铁线客流分担预测中的应用

对分担率进行科学的预测是交通运输规划的基础性工作,是制定运输决策的重要依据。文章经过比较选取多项Logit模型为分担率预测模型,介绍了模型建立与求解的方法,并运用该模型对南广高铁沿线客流分担率进行预测分析。