刚性系杆在软土地区上承式坦拱桥中的应用

介绍了预应力技术在上承式拱桥中的研究及应用现状,提出了在上承式拱桥两桥台之间设置预应力混凝土刚性系杆来平衡水平推力的新思路,并结合背景工程,系统地研究了这种结构体系的受力机理、设计方法及结构控制指标,指出了其相对于柔性系杆的优势及适用条件,并针对地基土比例系数in进行了参数敏感性分析。计算结果表明,参数ITI的取值对结构受力状态影响显著,建议在地质勘察报告提供的取值范围内选取多个值进行试算。     

对当前海事建设项目前期工作的思考

针对太中银铁路ZQ-V标段线路所经地区具有较强的硫酸盐、镁盐侵蚀性,混凝土的抗化学侵蚀性和耐久性要求很高的情况,为了确保混凝土施工质量,对耐久性混凝土配合比工艺进行了研究。     

Bayesian estimation of multinomial probit models of work trip choice

In this paper, we estimate a multinomial probit model of work trip mode choice in Seoul, Korea, using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. This method constructs a Markov chain Gibbs sampler that can be used to draw directly from the exact posterior distribution and perform finite sample likelihood inference. We estimate direct and cross-elasticities with respect to travel cost and the value of time. Our results show that travel demands are more sensitive to travel time than travel cost. The cross-elasticity results show that the bus has a greater substitute relation to the subway than the auto (and vice versa) and that an increase in the cost of an auto will increase the demand for bus transport more so than that of the subway.     

国外反舰导弹发展初步分析

反舰导弹是水面舰船生命力的主要威胁之一。科学认识导弹战斗部船内爆炸复杂毁伤元特性及其作用规律是舰船抗爆结构设计的重要前提。但迄今为止,船内爆炸冲击波、破片群及爆炸产物的定量表征、其对舰船的毁伤机理及数学规律研究远不充分。在梳理国内现有研究成果的基础上,分析了船内爆炸载荷特性及对水面舰船结构的毁伤特性,然后分别针对船内爆炸对结构的主要毁伤过程,分别在试验、理论分析及数值仿真方面的研究进展进行了综述,总结了在基础研究方面存在的不足,提出了尚需解决的问题,旨在为舰船抗内爆结构的研究与设计提供参考。     

Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.     

基于人均产值比的成都市物流需求分析

在阐述物流需求与人均国民生产总值关系的基础上,运用"人均产值比"法,对影响成都市农产品、工业品和居民消费品物流需求的主要因素进行分析,从而得出成都市物流需求基本特征,可为物流发展及规划提供参考。     

综合交通信息对小汽车通勤出行链的影响研究

为了量化综合交通信息对小汽车通勤者的诱导效果,实施网络调查获取出行行为数据,分析了调查数据的统计特性,并对比有无综合交通信息时通勤出行链的时间、空间和结构特征,然后,基于SP数据建立通勤者在综合交通信息条件下出行选择行为的网络广义极值模型(NGEV模型),并利用BIOGEME软件包进行求解.通过分析参数标定结果,得到如下结论:综合交通信息下通勤者进行复杂出行链选择公共交通的概率更低,小汽车通勤出行链(私人交通模式)在泊位数充足的情况下转向其他交通模式的倾向性较明显.     

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针对国内多模式公交线网规划缺乏依据的状况,以大城市多模式公交线网为研究对象,首先分析了城市居民的公交出行距离特征,借助双参数韦布尔分布建立了城市居民公交出行距离分布模型;基于广义出行费用,建立了各模式公交线网优势出行距离模型;基于供需平衡思想,构建了大城市多模式公交线网级配模型.以哈尔滨公交线网为例,测算得到了哈尔滨市2020年各模式公交线网的合理规模与级配关系,结果表明,测算的结果与2020年的预期需求较一致,说明建立的级配模型是合理可行的.     

Riks弧长法在压杆非线性屈曲分析中的应用

为了得到单轴压缩杆件考虑几何非线性时的后屈曲特性,介绍Riks弧长法的基本原理,并以工字钢为例,说明Riks弧长法在压杆非线性屈曲分析中的应用.结果表明,考虑初始缺陷后,压杆的屈曲强度大大减小,且屈曲强度对缺陷因子极为敏感.该研究可为单轴压缩杆件的非线性屈曲分析提供参考.     

An algorithm for finding reasonable paths in transit networks

In this paper, reasonable paths in transit networks are defined as possible paths that satisfy the acceptable time criterion and transfer‐walk criterion. A recursive algorithm for finding all of the reasonable paths in a transit network that does not involve a rapid increase in program run‐time with network size is presented. Realistic transit networks in Hong Kong and Guangzhou were selected as case studies of the different phases of the development of a trip planning system. Transport planning practitioners and potential users were invited to test the system to evaluate its performance. The results of the prototype evaluation were satisfactory, and the viability of the system as a useful tool for supporting decision‐making has been confirmed by the positive feedback that was obtained from survey questionnaires.