基于IDM的需求扰动供应链协调契约研究

针对具有需求扰动风险的供应链协调问题，基于利益驱动机制，设计出一种新的保险契约模式，建立相应的供应链模型并求解分析。结果表明：均匀分布市场需求下赔偿上限应足够大，且契约参数满足相关条件时供应链可以达到完美协调。最后通过数值分析了赔偿参数对订货量和保费的影响。     

Walking-distance introduced queueing model for pedestrian queueing system: Theoretical analysis and experimental verification

We have introduced the effect of delay in walking from the head of a queue to the service windows in the queueing model and obtain a suitable type of queueing system under various conditions by both computational simulation and theoretical analysis. When there are multiple service windows, the queueing theory indicates that mean waiting time in a fork-type queueing system (Fork), which collects pedestrians into a single queue, is smaller than that in a parallel-type queueing system (Parallel), i.e., queues for each service window. However, in our walking-distance introduced queueing model, we have examined that mean waiting time in Parallel becomes smaller when both the arrival probability of pedestrians and the effect of walking distance are large. Moreover, enhanced Forks, which shorten waiting time by reducing the effect of walking distance, are considered, and parts of our results are also verified by real queueing experiments.     

刍议民事非法证据排除

对民事非法证据的排除，反映了民事诉讼对程序权利和宪法权利问题的关注正日益上升。而民事非法证据排除的具体内容，则与一国的诉讼体制和诉讼传统密切相关。文章从民事诉讼程序中如何实现程序公正、保证民事诉讼目的的全面实现以及避免审理法官受非法证据的不当影响等方面对民事非法证据排除问题进行了探讨和分析。     

The place of transport in facilitating social inclusion via the mediating influence of social capital

Social policy makers rarely associate the ability to be mobile with having a role in the facilitation of social inclusion. This paper provides an initial exploration of the association between a person’s travel patterns and their risk of social exclusion. Information is drawn from a major Australian Research Council transport study which interviewed 535 people from Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. It includes an analysis of the extent of the person’s bonding and bridging social networks, their connectedness to the community, self-assessed level of well-being and their beliefs about whether or not they are able to control outcomes in their life. It was found that those who had the greatest risk of social exclusion, travelled less often and less distance, owned fewer cars and used public transport less, than those who were more socially included. However, those who were more at risk of social exclusion did not identify their lower trips as due to either a lack of transport, or problems with the public transport system. The ability to have good bridging networks appears to be related to increased trip-making and promotion of social inclusion but not necessarily self-assessed well-being which is satisfied by bonding networks.     

基于风险分析的公路工程保险费率厘定

在考虑工程风险及保险实际理赔情况的基础上,形成了含自然灾害、项目环境等7个指标维度的风险评价体系,利用粒子群(PSO)算法优化BP神经网络的初始阈值及权值,建立了公路工程保险费率厘定模型。将该模型应用于34个公路工程保险实际案例,通过PSO-BP神经网络拟合保险样本中风险指标因素与费率之间的关系,实现费率预测。对比分析PSO-BP神经网络与BP神经网络的仿真效果,结果表明,PSO-BP神经网络模型能较好地反映公路工程实际风险水平,预测准确度高,收敛速度快,适用于保险费率厘定。     

社会排斥视角下的我国城市中低收入家庭住房政策研究

文章从社会排斥的视角探讨我国城市中低收入家庭的住房政策,着重分析现有的住房政策所带来的社会排斥问题,以及采取怎样的措施来避免社会排斥现象的发生,从而为修正现有的住房政策打下良好的基础。     

由国内最大高速公路保单谈道路工程的风险与保险

通过对2006年国内高速公路建设工程保险保额最大的项目—渝湘线高速公路重庆段的实例,结合我国道路工程的投资、建设现状,分析了道路工程建设过程中的相关风险因素,讨论了道路工程的风险与工程保险在其中发挥的作用和意义。     

试论保价运输与运输保险的关系

阐述人类生产生活中存在的危险与保险的基本概念,从应付危险的3种对策分析保价运输与运输保险的关系与区别,并从法律的角度论述了保价与保险在法律体系中的地位和关系,以及保价合同的种类和性质。     

基于风险决策和保险定价的桥梁颤振风险评估

为了评估因桥梁颤振带来的经济风险,提出了一种全新的桥梁颤振风险评估方法。该方法基于一种已有的4变量桥梁颤振可靠度模型,先采用Monte Carlo方法计算桥梁颤振的失效概率,然后用货币的形式定量地刻画桥梁颤振的风险,并引入效用理论进行风险决策。最后,运用该方法对上海颗珠山斜拉桥进行了颤振风险分析。结果表明:该方法简单实用,所得的结果可以作为桥梁投资和保险定价的依据。     

论人身保险合同订立中保险人的答复义务

人身保险合同订立中,作为要约书面形式的投保书通常未标明有效期限,为合理分担合同未成立前的风险,保证交易的安全,实现当事人间利益的平衡和社会正义,应当强制保险人在法定时间或合理期限内答复, 而无论承诺与否;否则,即构成默示承诺。