Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

对城市轨道公共交通工程演化的思考

城市是人类政治、经济、社会、文化的聚焦点,也是人类频繁活动的集散中心。根据全球城市化进程的快速推进,城市公共交通已出现严重瓶颈,阻碍了城市文明发展。从工程演化论学术观分析,城市公共交通朝轨道交通发展已成历史的必然;而城市规模、特征、环境、发达程度所构成的不同形态又促使城轨交通工程演化朝向多样性发展;当前,在新时期下的社会和自然出现更高需求,城轨交通如何依靠技术进化来实现可持续发展是本文作者的思考命题,借此同学术界共勉。     

城市轨道交通车地无线的网络架构及应用

基于目前城市轨道交通运营及安保对车地无线通信网络的需求,通过对WLAN(无线局域网络)及TD-LTE(时分长期演进)技术方案的对比分析,提出更为适用于城市轨道交通的TD-LTE车地无线技术方案.结合郑州市轨道交通1号线一期工程的实例,验证该方案能够实现高速移动状态下的大带宽传输、多业务承载,可解决轨道交通车地通信的瓶颈问题,满足承载需要.     

TOD 规划设计理论研究

轨道交通站点的主要职能之一是运输乘客,通过网络化建设推动人口的大量流动,同时也产生多空间尺度效应,公共交通导向开发(TOD)可以满足多元化的功能需求,激发影响区域的城市活力和协同公交都市的建设,理论和实践价值越发突出。然而目前的TOD相关研究成果主要基于单一尺度进行探讨,缺乏系统、多尺度、多维度的梳理。基于此,通过文献计量法分析TOD理论演进,研究新城市主义影响下的站点综合效应、精明增长影响下的站区集聚效应、多维度时代的站群结构效应,探明不同发展阶段TOD规划设计理论。对比中美语境下TOD概念差异,发现中国城市整体密度高、密度分布均质化、大城市通勤时距长、职住不匹配的问题突显。针对中国现在面临的问题,分别从站点、站区和站群尺度,提出TOD精细设计、协同规划、时空交互的开发建议和策略,希望对未来的TOD规划设计提供借鉴。     

长江下游东流水道近期航道演变及维护对策

东流水道为长江下游典型的多分汊顺直河段,汊道交替、变化复杂,时有碍航情况发生,是长江下游重点碍航水道,也是长江“黄金航道”尺度提升的瓶颈河段。尤其近些年,在经历了西港淤堵、航道调整以及二期整治工程实施后,东流水道演变出现了新变化与新趋势。结合东流水道最新实测资料,分析其演变特点及碍航特性,揭示汊道变化的影响因素,并建立二维水沙数学模型,预测未来东流水道的演变趋势。在此基础上,提出主要维护对策及措施,为同类水道的航道维护与整治提供参考。     

基于LTE-M的下一代列控数据通信系统设计与可用性评估

相对于传统的基于通信的列车运行控制系统(communication based train control,CBTC),下一代列控系统将具有架构可靠、速率快、成本低以及服务质量高等优点,且数据通信系统的可用性能够保障列车的安全和高效运行。面向下一代列控系统,首先设计基于LTE-M(long term evolution-metro,LTE-M)的通信系统结构;然后针对下一代列控系统典型场景,利用确定与随机Petri网(deterministic and stochastic petri nets,DSPN)进行可用性建模,最后进行模型求解和可用性评估。仿真结果显示,基于LTE-M的下一代列控数据通信系统能够满足实际通信需求,其可用性分析方法可以完成数据通信系统的可用性建模与评估。     

The IMMa optimisation algorithm without control input parameters

The IMMa optimisation algorithm (IOA) consists of a heuristic method based on a differential evolution algorithm for choosing the Magic Formula (MF) tyre model parameters. In a previous paper, we demonstrated that the IOA improved the searching procedure of optimum MF parameters with respect to the starting value optimisation (SVO) methods. But we had to introduce some control input parameters that were fixed during the running process. Now, the new version does not require control input variables to be chosen by the user. That is, we use an algorithm with self-adapting control parameters and it continues being easy to use, robust and fast. Hence, users do not need any kind of knowledge to use the IOA.     

基于 Web 的舰船装备 IETM 系统设计与实现

装备信息化维修保障一直是相关研究机构关注的重要内容,舰船装备交互式电子技术手册（IETM ）的研究和应用对海军信息化建设和提高装备保障能力具有十分重要的意义。论文分析了 IETM 开发的关键技术,设计了基于 Web的舰船装备 IETM 系统,对推进海军维修信息化建设具有重大推进作用。     

基于混合有限元法的钢箱拱相关稳定分析

针对薄壁结构提出了一种混合有限元方法,对结构关心的部位采用板壳单元模拟,其他部位采用杆系单元模拟,根据平截面假定推导了2种单元在交界面处的约束方程,由此建立整体混合有限元模型。通过算例验证了该方法的可靠性,可以计算薄壁结构的整体稳定、局部稳定和整体局部相关稳定。用该方法对某座刚构-单肋钢箱系杆拱组合桥梁进行特征值和弹塑性稳定分析,得到了相应的稳定系数和失稳模态。实例显示,该方法既可以弥补梁单元模型无法计算构件局部屈曲的不足,又可克服局部板壳模型无法准确模拟其整体边界条件及工作环境的缺点,还可以避免全结构板壳模型产生过多单元数量和庞大结构刚度矩阵的弊端,计算可靠性和计算效率大大提高。     

典型洪水作用下长江口白茆沙水道演变特性

基于白茆沙水道典型年份地形和水文数据,对典型洪水作用下白茆沙水道演变特性进行研究。结果表明:在新的河道边界条件和典型洪水作用下白茆沙水道分流点下移北偏,汇流点上提,白茆沙北水道深泓持续北偏,南水道新泾河至七丫口一带深泓较稳定;白茆沙沙体发生淤积,其面积、体积均呈增大特征,白茆沙南水道深槽平面上表现为冲刷展宽,断面上白茆沙南水道深槽冲刷下切,北水道断面面积呈淤积萎缩态势;白茆沙全河段表现出冲槽淤滩、总体淤积特征。