Calibrating aggregate travel demand models with traffic counts: Estimators and statistical performance

Traffic counts on network links constitute an information source on travel demand which is easy to collect, cheap and repeatable. Many models proposed in recent years deal with the use of traffic counts to estimate Origin/Destination (O/D) trip matrices under different assumptions on the type of "a-priori" information available on the demand (surveys, outdated estimates, models, etc.) and the type of network and assignment mapping (see Cascetta & Nguyen 1988). Less attention has been paid to the possibility of using traffic counts to estimate the parameters of demand models. In this case most of the proposed methods are relative to particular demand model structures (e.g. gravity-type) and the statistical analysis of estimator performance is not thoroughly carried out. In this paper a general statistical framework defining Maximum Likelihood, Non Linear Generalized Least Squares (NGLS) and Bayes estimators of aggregated demand model parameters combining counts-based information with other sources (sample or a priori estimates) is proposed first, thus extending and generalizing previous work by the authors (Cascetta & Russo 1992). Subsequently a solution algorithm of the projected-gradient type is proposed for the NGLS estimator given its convenient theoretical and computational properties. The algorithm is based on a combination of analytical/numerical derivates in order to make the estimator applicable to general demand models. Statistical performances of the proposed estimators are evaluated on a small test network through a Monte Carlo method by repeatedly sampling "starting estimates" of the (known) parameters of a generation/distribution/modal split/assignment system of models. Tests were carried out assuming different levels of "quality" of starting estimates and numbers of available counts. Finally NGLS estimator was applied to the calibration of the described model system on the network of a real medium-size Italian town using real counts with very satisfactory results in terms of both parameter values and counted flows reproduction.     

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.     

内燃机数字化的技术状态管理

阐述了在内燃机设计过程中应用产品数据管理(PDM)系统进行的技术状态项目的管理、标志方法,为内燃机行业改变传统的设计理念,有效开展数字化技术状态管理提供借鉴.     

L型船用柴油机活塞失效分析研究

通过对L型船用柴油机失效活塞材料内部质量的理化检验分析,阐述了船用柴油机失效活塞材料的组织特点和内部缺陷等级,结合失效活塞特定的外观破坏形貌以及热处理工艺特点,指出了造成这次活塞失效的主要原因是活塞内部存在组织缺陷和内应力共同造成的.同时,为防止今后出现类似的失效问题,提出了指导性的建议.     

地层环境对单拱大跨装配式车站结构力学性能影响分析

随着装配式车站在滨海城市的建设,软弱土体对车站结构力学性能的影响成为备受关注的问题之一。以深圳地铁某装配式车站为工程背景,采用Midas-GTS有限元分析软件,建立地层-结构模型,分析单拱大跨装配式车站的力学特征,探索不同弹性模量、泊松比、地层条件、覆土厚度对地下车站结构变形、受力及接头内力的影响和规律,对装配式车站结构的地层适应性提出理论依据和结构设计指导。结果表明：①在泊松比不变的情况下,弹性模量对车站结构力学性能影响较大,当弹性模量从15 MPa增大到60 MPa时,弯矩减小了44.58%;并且这种影响是非线性的,弹性模量在15～30 MPa区段变化时结构变形较为敏感,当弹模达到45 MPa以上时,敏感度下降;②地层条件对结构顶板跨中和拱脚支座内力影响较大,强风化地层相对填土地层拱顶弯矩减少了约29.62%,而对侧墙内力影响较小,对BC接头影响较大;③当装配式车站所在土层为填土时,BC接头弯矩冗余量非常小,在结构设计时需要对接头进行加强,或者对地层进行适当改良;④在硬塑地层中,当覆土厚度从3 m增加到5?m时,BC接头弯矩冗余量减少了35.37%,但接头冗余量均达到29%以上,接头的安全性储备较大,接头可靠。     

基于信息化的地铁安保区隧道结构设施内外关联技术

现有的地铁运营隧道结构病害检查与地铁安全保护区隧道设施保护管理各自独立,洞内结构病害信息与外部巡检信息无法进行实时的交互与分析。基于Web Service技术和Java编程语言,以某地铁某安全保护区运营隧道为实例,通过研究隧道结构设施内外关联技术,研制了Web端管理系统及手持巡检终端,实现了隧道结构洞内外信息的实时关联与获取,进而为运营期的隧道整体结构安全与控制提供信息化手段。     

现代有轨电车新区发展适用性研究

分析国内现代有轨电车发展现状,说明城市新区发展有轨电车的意愿更高、实施力度更大。据此分析新区形成的根本及其发展多阶段性特点、空间结构特点、产业特点、目标特点,总结新区发展需求,从现代有轨电车的系统延展性、路面轨道交通系统、投资建设、环保特性等技术点落脚,比较有轨电车技术特点与新区特征需求两者间的契合性,总结现代有轨电车在新区发展的适用性,同时对新区有轨电车的网络规划、线路选线、系统设计及融资建设等方面提出建议。     

高速铁路路基桩板结构差异沉降限值探讨

桩板结构属于超静定结构,各桩之间的差异沉降会引起显著的结构内力,把空间结构近似简化成平面结构,采用结构力学分析方法,分别对5 mm和2 mm的差异沉降进行内力计算。计算过程中综合考虑温度变化,混凝土收缩徐变,列车动力作用,不同桩位发生支座下沉,采用6种工况组合分别计算,得出不同差异沉降对结构内力的影响。     

机车车轮超声自动检测系统设计

机车车轮缺陷类型复杂,自动检测难度大,且手工超声检测效率低、可靠性差,基于该研究现状设计了一种机车车轮超声自动检测系统。针对该系统的机械模块、超声探伤工艺、运动控制与软件模块等几个方面进行研究。采用踏面、内侧面2个探头组共14个探头,实现对车轮缺陷的全面扫查。利用水浸法采集超声信号,通过车轮转动、探头相对固定的方式使系统能够快速、高效地检测车轮缺陷。相比于手工检测,该系统可显著提高车轮的检测效率和可靠性。     

基于弹性需求的高速铁路列车开行方案优化

考虑不同时段列车开行方案与客流出行需求量之间的相互影响关系,在建立高速铁路各时段客流出行需求量关于各时段旅客出行服务水平间的函数关系的基础上,根据高速铁路企业制定列车开行方案与旅客出行选择之间的主从博弈关系,构建弹性需求下高速铁路列车开行方案优化的双层规划模型,并设计相应的模拟退火求解算法。