Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review

Abstract

Household vehicle ownership, and the associated dimensions including fleet size, vehicle type and usage, has been one of the most researched transport topics. This paper endeavors to provide a critical overview of the wide-ranging methodological approaches employed in vehicle ownership modeling depending on the ownership representation over the past two decades. The studies in the existing literature based on the vehicle ownership representation are classified as: exogenous static, exogenous dynamic, endogenous static and endogenous dynamic models. The methodological approaches applied range from simple linear regressions to complex econometrics formulations taking into account a rich set of covariates. In spite of the steady advancement and impressive evolution in terms of methodological approaches to examine the decision process, we identify complex issues that pose a formidable challenge to address the evolution of vehicle ownership in the coming years. Specifically, we discuss challenges with data availability and methodological framework selection. In light of these discussions, we provide a decision matrix for aiding researchers/practitioners in determining appropriate model frameworks for conducting vehicle ownership analysis.     

优化广西铁路建设项目顺序研究

在综合分析国家及区域"十二五"经济社会发展规划、中长期铁路网规划等规划基础上,预测研究年度区域各铁路客货运量、构成及其未来发展趋势;分析各铁路项目的功能定位及其在区域路网中发挥的运输效益;综合考虑经济效益、社会效益及国家宏观经济政策,提出优化广西铁路建设项目顺序和提高运能的方案,达到提前发挥投资效益的目的。     

政府投资高速公路计价依据比较研究

高速公路作为投资大，建设周期长，回报率不高的公益性基础设施项目，决定了国家投入应是建设资金的主渠道，因此科学、合理、完善的政府投资高速公路计价依据十分重要。然而我国目前计价依据主要还是建立在计划时代条件下原有的定额体系的基础上，没有形成与工程量清单相适应的计价依据体系，而且工程定额的更新速度很慢，很难反应目前高速公路工程建设市场的实际情况。通过分析发达国家投资高速公路计价依据，从中参考一些值得借鉴的内容，进而对我国政府投资高速公路计价依据改革提出了几点建议。     

提高地方铁路工程总承包项目盈利水平的投资控制分析

国内铁路工程与其他行业相比，在工程总承包项目实施过程中有其独特的承包风险，投资控制难度较大。此文结合国内地方铁路工程总承包（EPC）项目投资控制特点，对EPC项目全过程中各阶段投资控制的关键问题进行分析，并提出了提高盈利水平的控制策略及措施。     

Identification of potential sites for deep-ocean waste isolation with a geographic site-selection model

Identification of optimal sites for the isolation of waste on the abyssal seafloor was performed with two approaches: by the traditional method of map overlays of relevant attributes, and by a specially developed, automated Site-Selection Model (SSM). Five initial, Surrogate Sites, identified with the map-overlay approach, were then compared with the more rigorously produced scores from the SSM. The SSM, a process for optimization of site locations, accepts subjective, expert-based judgments and transforms them into a quantitative, reproducible, and documented product. The SSM is adaptable to any siting scenario. Forty-one factors relevant to the isolation scenario, including 21 weightable factors having a total of 123 scorable categories, have been entered into the SSM. Factors are grouped under project definition, unique environments, anthropogenic, geologic, biologic, weather, oceanographic and distance criteria. The factor scores are linked to a georeferenced database array of all factors, corresponding to 1°×1° latitude–longitude squares. The SSM includes a total of 2241 one-degree squares within 1000 n.m. of the U.S. coasts, including the western North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern North Pacific. Under a carefully weighted and scored scenario of isolation, the most favorable sites identified with the SSM are on the Hatteras and Nares Abyssal Plains in the Atlantic. High-scoring sites are also located in the Pacific abyssal hills province between the Murray and Molokai Fracture Zones. Acceptable 1° squares in the Gulf of Mexico are few and of lower quality, with the optimum location on the northern Sigsbee Abyssal Plain. Two of the five Surrogate Site locations, on the Hatteras and Sigsbee Abyssal Plains, correspond to the best SSM sites in each ocean area. Two Pacific and a second Atlantic Surrogate Site are located in low-scoring regions or excluded by the SSM. Site-selection results from the SSM, although robust, are an initial attempt to quantify the site-selection process. The SSM database exposes a significant lack of high-quality information for many areally mappable attributes on the abyssal seafloor, particularly bottom-current speed and measures of biologic productivity and flux. Terminologies and classifications of some measures, such as sediment types, suffer from parochialism and vary by ocean. Considerable research is needed even for a broad understanding of the environmental measures required to make sound societal decisions about use of the abyssal seafloor for disposal or other purposes.     

电磁环境船模预测技术的误差分析研究

基于缩比船模原理,从模型限制误差、方法误差和问题本身的误差等方面分析电磁环境船模预测技术的主要误差源,并在此基础上分别论述上述误差源对电磁环境预测精度产生的影响.可以有针对性地采取相应措施控制误差,以更好地获取逼近于实船的电磁环境分布特性.     

地下工程建设对城市地下水环境的影响分析

研究目的：研究地下工程在施工和运营的过程中对地下水环境的影响，为地下工程的建设规划及地下水环境保护提供科学依据。研究结果：在总结地下工程建设对地下水环境影响基础上，以西安市城市轨道交通2号线为例，利用经验公式计算施工期车站基坑降水对地下水的影响，并采用数值模拟的方法预测地铁运营后对地下水流场的影响。地铁施工期的基坑降水只发生在张家堡站，中心水位下降6．3m，降水量为10454．15m^3／d，影响半径441m，对地下水流将产生一定的影响；地铁建成运营以后的地铁线路阻挡了地下水的径流，造成“迎水面”水位壅高，“背水面”水位降低，通过模拟水位变幅在0～1．7m。     

《国际安全与环境无害化拆船公约》制定进展与对我国的影响分析

文中分析了《国际安全与环境无害化拆船公约草案》的制定背景与进展，简要介绍了公约的内容与基本要求，介绍了国内拆船业的现状，在此基础上分析了公约生效后对我国相关行业可能产生的影响，并提出了我国在公约后续制定过程中所应采取的态度建议。     

Host specificity in copepod parasites of deep-sea fishes

Parasitic copepods belonging to two orders, Siphonostomatoida and Poecilostomatoida, are frequently reported from fish hosts in the deep sea. Three families of copepods are most commonly encountered, Sphyriidae, Lernaeopodidae and Chondracanthidae, but members of another four families, Hatschekiidae, Pennellidae, Philichthyidae and Hyponeoidae, are occasionally recorded. These parasites utilise various deep demersal fishes as hosts, especially species of the most abundant families, Macrouridae, Moridae, Synaphobranchidae and Alepocephalidae. Host specificity levels are variable, as for shallow-water fishes. In contrast, few parasites are regularly reported from fishes inhabiting the pelagic water column away from the bottom and away from the near-surface zone. Only the pennellids Sarcotretes scopeli and Cardiodectes medusaeus appear common on pelagic fishes, in the Atlantic and Pacific respectively. Host specificity levels in these two pennellid species are relatively low. It is speculated that the difficulty of encountering a host in the vast pelagic biome has restricted the diversity of parasitic copepods that have successfully colonized pelagic fishes.     

浅谈海水环境的桥梁设计

通过辽宁省滨海公路的设计,积累了一些海水环境桥梁设计的经验,现总结成文,以期和同行切磋交流.