舰船批量建造费用的组合预测应用研究

研究了舰船批量建造费用的组合预测问题.首先依据舰船批量建造费用的变化特点,采用生长曲线法、数据平滑法、灰色分析法对费用进行预测,然后运用支持向量机的回归算法对3种预测方法的预测值进行有机组合,建立了舰船批量建造费用的组合预测模型,最后利用样本数据分析了一个参数变化对预测性能的影响,给出了支持向量机参数选择的依据.仿真结果表明,该模型能明显提高系统预测的精度和稳定性,可用于舰船批量建造费用的预测和估算,具有较大的实用价值.     

运输船舶在波浪中失速的近似估算

如何准确、快速、简便地估算船舶在波浪中的失速,已成为船舶研究、设计人员及航运界有关人员共同关心的一个重要课题。文中给出了近似估算运输船舶在波浪中失速的2个方法。对处于初步设计阶段且尚未做过静水快速性能模型试验的运输船舶,可直接应用第2个方法。该方法提出的近似估算公式应用方便,也不用编程便可直接人工计算,且与模型试验结果相当吻合。     

自航耙吸式挖泥船艏吹施工工艺及效益分析

在黄骅港内航道、港池、泊位水域,采用自航耙吸式挖泥船艏吹施工工艺进行吹填施工,提高了效率,节约了成本,减少疏浚船舶施工与正常航行作业船舶之间的干扰,保证了进出港船舶正常运行。     

盾构隧道联络通道施工中管片纵向应力变化

阐述地铁隧道联络通道施工过程中进行实时监测的重要作用,介绍钢弦式应变计的测试原理及安装方法.研究盾构隧道拆除联络通道洞门管片时的纵向应力变化规律,利用应变电测法,对北京地铁盾构法隧道某联络通道开洞过程进行应力监测,为保证施工部位和周围环境的安全提供可靠的监测数据.对监测数据进行统计,并对钢管片相邻的混凝土管片受力进行对比,分析施工引起的盾构隧道管片的应力变化规律,为工程的顺利进行提供指导.     

半刚性基层沥青路面横向裂缝分布规律的探讨

我国高速公路绝大多数都采用了沥青路面和半刚性基层,其早期开裂现象比较明显,故应从合理利用路面材料性能方面着手,合理总结横向裂缝产生和分布的规律,只有这样才能将其更好地应用在以后的工程施工当中。     

SNS柔性防护技术在边坡危岩防护中的应用

SNS柔性防护系统具有施工快捷、方便、环保、美观等独特的优势,应用于庐江至铜陵高速公路边坡危岩防护中．替代传统的加固防护措施,解决了在山区复杂环境地质条件下传统防护措施施工困难、进展缓慢等难题。     

北京交通现状解析

北京近年来交通拥堵严重,成了一个广泛关注的社会问题。就北京交通状况进行了实例分析,找出了造成拥堵局面的原因,提出了一些针对性的政策建议。     

无线Ad-Hoc网络密钥分发和认证机制研究

针对Ad Hoc网络没有管理中心,资源受限等特点,解决了Ad-Hoc网络面临的新的安全问题,使Ad-Hoc网络得到更广泛的应用.结合基于身份加密和门限秘密共享两个基本理论,提出了一个适用于Ad-Hoc网络、没有管理中心的分布式密钥分发和认证方案.其优点是:减少了运算量,节省了存储空间和带宽,并无需在网络形成之前假设密钥已经分发完毕,从而有效解决了Ad-Hoc网络安全中密钥管理的问题.     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.