发动机系统可靠性分析与评估

针对发动机试验昂贵以及试验条件无法真实再现发动机使用环境的情况,提出利用“三包”信息作为评估发动机使用可靠性的数据源。以发动机完整数据服从的NHPP模型为基础,结合“三包”信息普遍存在的删失现象,提出新模型;该模型既适用于完整数据,也适用于删失数据。实例证明,利用该模型计算的参数与实际统计结果的误差小于2%,最后评估得到发动机的可靠性水平。     

钢-混凝土组合梁桥温度场与温度效应研究综述

组合结构桥梁由热工性能差异显著的钢材和混凝土构成,温度效应往往成为控制其设计和应用的关键因素,因此,对其温度场和温度效应进行准确地计算与评估具有重要的科研价值与工程意义。对组合结构桥梁温度场与温度效应开展了综述研究。首先,对各国桥梁规范温度荷载的规定进行归纳对比,讨论不同规范中温度荷载计算方法的特点,总结中国现有规范对全国气候划分的分辨率不足、对日照辐射的考虑不够完善等有待提升之处;其次,对国内外桥梁温度场与温度效应研究的发展与现状进行调研,重点分析中国钢-混凝土组合结构桥梁温度场与温度效应的研究进展,对现有研究的不足进行讨论;再次,提出基于可靠度理论的组合结构桥梁设计温度荷载模型,可使用气象部门统计的温度统计资料,通过MATLAB高效数值模型计算形成组合结构桥梁温度场时程数据,进一步利用极值模型获得桥梁设计的温度荷载代表值,快速、高效地实现对桥梁地理信息、结构参数等因素的考虑;最后,以北京地区典型3跨连续直线组合梁桥为算例,对连续钢-混凝土组合桥梁的温度效应展开研究。提出的基于可靠度理论与MATLAB的钢-混凝土组合结构桥梁设计温度荷载模型,可实现任意地区组合结构桥梁温度场的精确计算并显著提升计算效率。     

基于岩体指标和掘进参数的TBM净掘进速率预测模型

净掘进速率是TBM施工速度的主要评价指标,与围岩物理力学性质、TBM掘进参数之间存在一定相关性。文章以兰州水源地建设工程输水隧洞双护盾TBM施工为背景,基于现场实测数据,选择岩石单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、变形模量、泊松比、岩石耐磨性CAI值等岩体指标,以及刀盘推力和刀盘转速等掘进参数,进行TBM净掘进速率与有关影响参数之间的单因素相关性分析,得到相应拟合公式;基于TBM净掘进速率与岩体指标、掘进参数之间的相关性,利用多元非线性回归方法建立了TBM净掘进速率预测模型。通过将兰州水源地建设工程输水隧洞实测TBM净掘进速率和预测结果进行对比,验证了TBM净掘进速率预测模型的合理性。研究结果表明:(1)在复杂的多种地质条件下,TBM净掘进速率与岩石单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、变形模量、岩石耐磨性CAI值、刀盘推力以及刀盘转速呈负相关关系,与泊松比呈正相关关系;(2)干湿状态对岩石耐磨性CAI值有一定影响,饱和状态下岩石耐磨性CAI值与TBM净掘进速率之间的相关性更显著;(3)建立的多元非线性回归预测模型,预测精度较高,可为相似地质条件下TBM净掘进速率估算提供参考。     

Benefit of speed reduction for ships in different weather conditions

Currently, the shipping industry is facing a great challenge of reducing emissions. Reducing ship speeds will reduce the emissions in the immediate future with no additional infrastructure. However, a detailed investigation is required to verify the claim that a 10% speed reduction would lead to 19% fuel savings (Faber et al., 2012).This paper investigates fuel savings due to speed reduction using detailed modeling of ship performance. Three container ships, two bulk carriers, and one tanker, representative of the shipping fleet, have been designed. Voyages have been simulated by modeling calm water resistance, wave resistance, propulsion efficiency, and engine limits. Six ships have been simulated in various weather conditions at different speeds. Potential fuel savings have been estimated for a range of speed reductions in realistic weather.It is concluded that the common assumption of cubic speed-power relation can cause a significant error in the estimation of bunker consumption. Simulations in different seasons have revealed that fuel savings due to speed reduction are highly weather dependent. Therefore, a simple way to include the effect of weather in shipping transport models has been proposed.Speed reduction can lead to an increase in the number of ships to fulfill the transport demand. Therefore, the emission reduction potential of speed reduction strategy, after accounting for the additional ships, has been studied. Surprisingly, when the speed is reduced by 30%, fuel savings vary from 2% to 45% depending on ship type, size and weather conditions. Fuel savings further reduce when the auxiliary engines are considered.     

带有最优流量记忆时间差的一类新格子模型

为了分析最优流量记忆时间差对交通流稳定性的影响,本文基于考虑驾驶员估计得到的最优流量信息,同时考虑驾驶员在驾车过程中受到记忆时间的影响,给出了一类新的格子流体动力学模型.首先,基于线性稳定性理论,获得了新模型的稳定性条件;随后,通过非线性分析方法,给出该模型的mKdV方程;然后,基于求解上述方程所得到的扭结-反扭结孤立波可用于描述交通拥挤的转化和传播过程.最后,通过仿真算例验证了上述理论分析的结论,即驾驶员的记忆时间和最优流量记忆时间差能够显著影响交通流的稳定性,同时增大记忆时间步长和强度系数可以有效地增强交通流的稳定性.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

A logit-based model for measuring the effects of transportation infrastructure on land value

Mutual interactions between transportation and land use have long been debated. Despite progress made in computational technology, the study of these interactions is not adequately developed. The most important aspect of such interactions is given by the changes in land values due to changes in transportation infrastructures. We consider the behavioural features of these interactions along with the constraints on the land and/or zoning restrictions and propose a reliable model for the first time to predict land value changes with respect to changes in transportation facilities and accessibility. The proposed model is a logit-based mathematical programming methodology where the relative price of land is predicted with respect to transportation accessibility, neighbourhood amenities, location premium, availability of land, and zoning regulations. A real-world case study is used to exhibit the applicability of the proposed methodology and demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms and procedures.     

Drivers of transit service loyalty considering heterogeneity between user segments

Users’ loyalty to public transit service is fundamental to promote its popularity in the transportation market. A four-step analytical framework is advanced to investigate the importance of service attributes that heterogeneous transit user segments place on their public transit service loyalty, measured in terms of overall satisfaction and re-use intention. Critical service attributes perceived by transit users that are relevant for loyalty enhancement are explicitly determined, which vary between user segments. It is suggested that the design of strategies aimed to promote the use of public transit by increasing user loyalty towards transit service be targeted at specific attributes that contribute most to loyalty and specific user segments whose original loyalty level is significantly different to others.     

潜艇非稳态流场计算流体力学不确定度分析

依照ITTC推荐规程对美国DARPA潜艇模型SUBOFF光体在不考虑自由表面情况下的CFD计算进行不确定度分析。选取中间尺度的时间步长,验证中采用细、中、粗三套网格。在最精细的网格上进行不同时间步长的研究。最后对潜艇表面压力计算进行确认。     

Mechanism of Tunnel Water Inflow Caused by Bending Failure of a Waterproof Dike Based on a Circular Thin Plate Mechanical Model北大核心CSCD

Water bursts during tunnel construction endanger construction, and it is therefore necessary to reserve a waterproof dike with the required thickness to avoid water bursts and to take reinforcement of the dike and treatment of the structure liable to trigger a water burst. Using the water burst at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel of the Shanghai-Chengdu expressway as an example, and considering the type of tunnel section and the upright mudstone of the dike, the waterproof dike at the work face is simplified as a round thin plate. A formula for the calculation of a minimum safety thickness for the critical waterproof dike is deduced by analyzing the force applied on the water-proof dike, and the minimum safety thickness for the water burst section at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is cal-culated. The numerical simulation analysis demonstrates the critical thickness of waterproof dike at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is 1.4-1.55 m, and the calculated water inflow and water burst basically agree with the actual condition. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.