21世纪海上丝绸之路航道安全探析

研究和探讨21世纪海上丝绸之路,必然涉及海洋运输航道安全问题,而现阶段紧密结合21世纪海上丝绸之路进行航道安全研究的成果较少。在文献综述基础上,通过界定21世纪海上丝绸之路的范围,明晰航道安全的研究对象,从战略物资进口通道角度切入,用详实的数据论证了海上丝绸之路承载着我国能源进口、对外贸易、国家安全等战略重任。立足当前国内外宏观形势,归类梳理了航道沿线宏观环境错综复杂、航道沿线国别之间协调合作机制欠佳、航道运输规划和管理水平有待提高和其他不可抗风险等四方面存在的安全风险,并从坚持和平外交政策、尝试建立21世纪南海经济圈、积极构建地区沟通合作平台、力求掌握航道安全主动权等角度提出了针对性较强的意见建议,争取为建设安全、繁荣、互利共赢的21世纪海上丝绸之路开阔新思路。     

基于动态系泊软件的泊位敏感性分析及不可作业时间研究

以非洲某港为例,将影响船舶作业的风、浪、流等主要因素进行敏感性分析,找出各影响因素的特点及规律,确定典型工况计算数量,使用MIKE21MA软件进行系泊分析,将计算结果与控制标准进行比较,通过与波高、周期联合频率分布结合推算不可作业时间。结果表明：单考虑系泊条件,完全不稳定系泊时间占9.41%（37 d）,瞬时不稳定系泊时间占41.4%（148 d）,完全稳定系泊时间占49.19%（约180 d）;本工程确定不可作业时间的方法可推广至类似的受长周期波影响的码头工程,敏感性分析可以在有限资源条件下,减少计算组次、提高计算效率。     

近岸波浪变形数值模型的比较研究

外海深水区的波浪传播到近岸浅水区时,受到岛屿、地形与建筑物等影响,发生折射、绕射、反射和破碎等一系列变形。准确计算近岸与港内波浪分布,成为港口与海岸工程研究的重要课题。文章在总结波浪数值模拟发展现状的基础上,对目前常用的基于椭圆型缓坡方程的CGWAVE模型、基于Boussinesq方程的MIKE21-BW模型和基于动谱平衡方程的SWAN模型进行了比较研究。     

乳腺癌p21WAF1/CIP1表达与激素受体的相关性研究

目的 探讨乳腺癌p21WAF1/CIP1基因的表达与激素受体、肿瘤分级、淋巴结转移的关系。方法 应用免疫组化SP法对60例乳腺癌组织p21WAF1/CIP1基因及雌孕激素受体表达进行同时检测。结果 p21WAF1/CIP1、雌激素受体(ER)及孕激素受体(PR)阳性率分别为50%、55%、48%。p21WAF1/CIP1基因表达与ER、PR相关,并随着乳腺癌恶性程度增加和淋巴结转移阳性率降低。结论 检测p21WAF1/CIP1在乳腺癌的表达,对指导乳腺癌内分泌治疗和评估肿瘤生物学行为有重要意义。     

天津港某液体化工码头船舶污染影响模拟研究

本研究以潮流计算结果和风场资料分析结果为依据,采用溢油模型对海上溢油的扩散、漂移和岸线吸附等物化过程进行模拟,分析研究预测油膜的演变,预测油膜漂移轨迹和归宿.计算结果表明当南港港池口门位置处发生溢油事故后,油膜均会漂出南港口门外,在风的作用下会对周边环境一定范围内产生一定影响.     

台风对舟山某渔港工程码头波况影响的模拟

采用改进的藤田气压模型计算8114号台风风场，同时采用MIKE21 SW波浪数学模型模拟台风作用下的波浪场。通过数值模型计算，提供码头位置在台风过境时的波浪情况，为工程建设提供依据。计算结果表明：8114号台风期间，工程海域出现12级以上的西北向大风，登步岛码头水域的有效波高大约在2.5 m，西闪岛码头水域约为2.0 m；波浪周期约为4.5 s；登步岛码头和西闪岛码头水域波向均在W—NW向。从8114号台风过境时码头水域的波浪场模拟计算结果可以看出，外海波浪对工程水域影响不明显，工程水域仍受岛上局地风浪影响。     

Optimal transit service atop ring-radial and grid street networks: A continuum approximation design method and comparisons

Two continuum approximation (CA) optimization models are formulated to design city-wide transit systems at minimum cost. Transit routes are assumed to lie atop a city’s street network. Model 1 assumes that the city streets are laid out in ring-radial fashion. Model 2 assumes that the city streets form a grid. Both models can furnish hybrid designs, which exhibit intersecting routes in a city’s central (downtown) district and only radial branching routes in the periphery. Model 1 allows the service frequency and the route spacing at a location to vary arbitrarily with the location’s distance from the center. Model 2 also allows such variation but in the periphery only.The paper shows how to solve these CA optimization problems numerically, and how the numerical results can be used to design actual systems. A wide range of scenarios is analyzed in this way. It is found among other things that in all cases and for both models: (i) the optimal headways and spacings in the periphery increase with the distance from the center; and (ii) at the boundary between the central district and the periphery both, the optimal service frequency and line spacing for radial lines decrease abruptly in the outbound direction. On the other hand Model 1 is distinguished from Model 2 in that the former produces in all cases: (i) a much smaller central district, and (ii) a high frequency circular line on the outer edge of that central district.Parametric tests with all the scenarios further show that Model 1 is consistently more favorable to transit than Model 2. Cost differences between the two designs are typically between 9% and 13%, but can top 21.5%. This is attributed to the manner in which ring-radial networks naturally concentrate passenger’s shortest paths, and to the economies of demand concentration that transit exhibits. Thus, it appears that ring-radial street networks are better for transit than grids.To illustrate the robustness of the CA design procedure to irregularities in real street networks, the results for all the test problems were then used to design and evaluate transit systems on networks of the “wrong” type – grid networks were outfilled with transit systems designed with Model 1 and ring-radial networks designed with Model 2. Cost increased on average by only 2.7%. The magnitude of these deviations suggests that the proposed CA procedures can be used to design transit systems over real street networks when they are not too different from the ideal and that the resulting costs should usually be very close to those predicted.     

基于纳潮差分析人工岛对海湾水环境的影响*

针对大连湾人工岛的建设预案,在人工岛多种长度及宽度的组合条件下,运用MIKE21 flow model模块进行人工岛建设前、后的海湾流场模拟,在纳潮差的概念下,探讨研究嵌入人工岛后海湾水体交换的变化规律,进而评价人工岛对海湾水环境的影响。在不同的人工岛功能定位前提下,综合考虑人工岛和水体交换的诸多因素,分别给出了可供规划参考的人工岛推荐方案。     

超大型矿砂船舱口盖载荷的局部强度分析

介绍了一艘超大型矿砂船在施加舱口盖载荷工况下,对相关的横向强框结构局部强度进行解析法分析。通过有限元法对强框处屈服、屈曲强度进行分析评估和理论验证。对比了国际船级社协会(IACS)《船舶结构强度》统一要求第21条(URS21)规定的舱口盖载荷均布施加于舱口围和实际集中载荷的四种不同工况下的结果 ,依据结果进行了结构合理加强。其分析结果与加强方案对超大型矿砂船局部强度分析具有一定的参考价值。     

MIKE21-BW模型在日照港总平面设计方案可行性研究中的应用

通过使用丹麦DHI公司开发的平面二维河口与海岸模拟软件MIKE21-BW模型,运用波浪数学模型方法,对日照港工作船码头防浪措施工程总平面设计方案的可行性进行了论证。通过工程前后对比试验,确定了合理的设计方案,同时也指出了设计中应该注意的一些问题。