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61.
基于腹地集装箱生成量分配的海铁联运运量预测方法研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
通过分析海铁联运运量的影响因素,提出基于集装箱货值的改进生成系数法来预测海运进出口集装箱内地生成量;采用多项Logit模型建立运输链选择模型,分析运输费用、运输时间和服务质量对运输链市场份额的影响,并预测腹地至港口各条运输链未来年份的市场份额;引入空重箱比例将重箱数量换算为运量。本文以陕西省为例,预测2010年陕西至上海海铁联运运量。分析表明,运输链市场份额对运输费用最为敏感,其次是服务质量和运输时间。 相似文献
62.
Raquel Espino Juan de Dios Ortúzar Concepcin Romn 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2007,41(10):899-912
We analyse the choice of mode in suburban corridors using nested logit specifications with revealed and stated preference data. The latter were obtained from a choice experiment between car and bus, which allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost, travel time and frequency. The experiment also included parking cost and comfort attributes. The attribute levels in the experiment were adapted to travellers’ experience using their revealed preference information. Different model specifications were tested accounting for the presence of income effect, systematic taste variation, and incorporating the effect of latent variables. We also derived willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective value of time, that vary among individuals as well as elasticity values. Finally, we analysed the demand response to various policy scenarios that favour public transport use by considering improvements in level-of-service, fare reductions and/or increases in parking costs. In general, demand was shown to be more sensitive to policies that penalise the private car than those improving public transport. 相似文献
63.
Carlos Pestana Barros Peter U.C. Dieke 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2008,13(5):347-350
This Note looks at the choice valuation restrictions on traffic entering the city of Lisbon, based on individual preferences in relation to noise, pollution and congestion. The analysis employs a questionnaire distributed in 2007 to ascertain the significant characteristics of traveling to Lisbon, with the aim of curbing the number of cars that are associated with the probability of individuals supporting a charge on motor vehicles entering the city. The model also takes into account the uncontrolled heterogeneity of the data. 相似文献
64.
����Ħ�г���ͨ������������з�ʽѡ����Ϊ�о� 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对摩托车交通的快速发展对城市交通状况的负面影响,本研究选取典型城市佛山市南海区进行了居民出行调查和公交意向调查。从摩托车出行行为入手,分析了人们选择摩托车出行的原因、摩托车方式对出行行为的影响、摩托车出行方式与其替代方式的联系和区别,并在此基础上建立了出行方式选择的Multinomial Logit模型,深入分析了影响出行方式选择的主要因素。研究还结合摩托车车主对公共交通的评价意见和限摩政策可能带来的出行方式的调整,评价了大力发展公共交通和限制摩托车的策略对改善现有交通状况的效果,对类似城市解决摩托车交通问题有借鉴作用。 相似文献
65.
以物流运输活动中不同货物运输链的选择为研究对象,建立了多层Logit模型进行具体地研究.以效用理论为基础,分析了不同运输链中运输方式的各种影响因素,按照运输方式的特点,将运输链分为多方式和单一方式两大类,并在此分类基础上建立了二层的选择树模型.利用调查数据对模型效用函数的参数进行了标定,并对参数的标定结果进行了验证.最后,通过具体实例证实了多层Logit模型在货物运输链选择研究中的实用性和有效性. 相似文献
66.
基于非集计模型与模糊数学理论,以城市群居民出行行为为研究对象,选择出行者的出行时间和出行费用作为影响因素,利用极大似然估计法进行参数标定,通过t检验、命中率检验与优度检验,将出行时间模糊化,忽略出行费用的影响,建立了具有模糊特性变量的出行方式预测Logit模型。将轨道交通与小汽车2种出行方式的时间模糊化参数分别选为0.1、0.3、0.5,分析了出行方式与出行时间对居民出行行为的影响。分析结果表明:轨道交通与小汽车的平均出行感知时间之比为0.8~1.2,且2种出行感知时间同等程度变化;当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.1,小汽车出行时间小于70min时,出行者均选择轨道交通出行;当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.3,小汽车出行时间小于67min时,出行者继续选择轨道交通出行,但当小汽车出行时间大于67min,小汽车出行时间模糊化参数分别为0.1、0.3时,出行者选择小汽车出行;当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.5,小汽车出行时间小于58min时,出行者仍然选择轨道交通出行,但当小汽车出行时间大于66min时,出行者均选择小汽车出行。 相似文献
67.
Abstract The newly launched, June 2009, US High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program has rekindled a renewed interest in forecasting high-speed rail (HSR) ridership. The first step to the concerted effort by the federal, state, rail, and other related agencies to develop a nationwide HSR network is the development of credible approaches to forecast the ridership. This article presents a nested logit/simultaneous choice model to improve the demand forecast in the context of intercity travel. In addition to incorporating the interrelationship between trip generation and mode choice decisions, the simultaneous model also provides a platform for the same utility function flowing between both the decision-making processes. Using American Travel Survey data, supplemented by various mode parameters, the proposed model improves the forecast accuracy and confirms the significant impact of travel costs on both mode choice and trip generation. Furthermore, the cross elasticity of mode choice and trip generation related to travel costs and other modal characteristics may shed some light on transportation policies in the area of intercity travel, especially in anticipation of HSR development. 相似文献
68.
根据效用最大化理论,建立了path-size logit(PSL)模型和路径效用函数.以北京市地铁十号线国贸站的调查数据为基础,标定了模型参数.对模型的分析表明,行人在轨道车站售票区域的路径选择与出行目的及各设施的服务时间有关,同时,路径重复系数对路径效用的影响大,佐证了行人对拥挤路径的规避行为. 相似文献
69.
70.
In the US, the rise in motorized vehicle travel has contributed to serious societal, environmental, economic, and public health
problems. These problems have increased the interest in encouraging non-motorized modes of travel (walking and bicycling).
The current study contributes toward this objective by identifying and evaluating the importance of attributes influencing
bicyclists’ route choice preferences. Specifically, the paper examines a comprehensive set of attributes that influence bicycle
route choice, including: (1) bicyclists’ characteristics, (2) on-street parking, (3) bicycle facility type and amenities,
(4) roadway physical characteristics, (5) roadway functional characteristics, and (6) roadway operational characteristics.
The data used in the analysis is drawn from a web-based stated preference survey of Texas bicyclists. The results of the study
emphasize the importance of a comprehensive evaluation of both route-related attributes and bicyclists’ demographics in bicycle
route choice decisions. The empirical results indicate that travel time (for commuters) and motorized traffic volume are the
most important attributes in bicycle route choice. Other route attributes with a high impact include number of stop signs,
red light, and cross-streets, speed limits, on-street parking characteristics, and whether there exists a continuous bicycle
facility on the route.
Ipek N. Sener is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. She received her M.S. degrees in Civil Engineering and in Architecture, and her B.S. degree in Civil Engineering from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey. Naveen Eluru is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. He received his M.S. degree in Civil Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, and his Bachelors in Technology Degree from Indian Institute of Technology in Madras, India. Chandra R. Bhat is a Professor in Transportation at The University of Texas at Austin. He has contributed toward the development of advanced econometric techniques for travel behavior analysis, in recognition of which he received the 2004 Walter L. Huber Award and the 2005 James Laurie Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and the 2008 Wilbur S. Smith Distinguished Transportation Educator Award from the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). He is the immediate past chair of the Transportation Research Board Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting and the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research. 相似文献
Chandra R. Bhat (Corresponding author)Email: |
Ipek N. Sener is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. She received her M.S. degrees in Civil Engineering and in Architecture, and her B.S. degree in Civil Engineering from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey. Naveen Eluru is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. He received his M.S. degree in Civil Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, and his Bachelors in Technology Degree from Indian Institute of Technology in Madras, India. Chandra R. Bhat is a Professor in Transportation at The University of Texas at Austin. He has contributed toward the development of advanced econometric techniques for travel behavior analysis, in recognition of which he received the 2004 Walter L. Huber Award and the 2005 James Laurie Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and the 2008 Wilbur S. Smith Distinguished Transportation Educator Award from the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). He is the immediate past chair of the Transportation Research Board Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting and the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research. 相似文献