基于VAR模型的南京市交通量与经济发展关系研究

在对南京市交通量与经济发展指标统计分析的基础上,运用向量自回归模型——VAR模型进行分析,通过采用协整检验模型、Granger因果关系检验模型和脉冲响应函数等分析,得到交通运输与经济发展之间的关系,并给出相应的建议.     

船舶汽轮机组优化设计研究

汽轮机组是船舶动力装置的重要组成部分,其重量和尺寸是影响船舶动力装置重量体积及布置的重要因素.建立包括汽轮机、冷凝器和齿轮减速器设计三部分的船舶汽轮机组数学模型,以汽轮机组重量最小为目标函数和在给定的约束条件下,采用不同的优化算法对机组进行了优化设计.与原方案相比,采用优化方案后汽轮机组重量明显减小,改进的自适应遗传算法有更好的优化性能,优化效果显著.     

2010年世界船舶市场评述与展望

回顾了2010年世界船舶市场的发展,并对未来船舶市场进行了预测。随着世界经济的复苏,2010年航运市场出现反弹,虽然全年呈现震荡格局,但整体好于2009年,散货船、油船、集装箱船年平均运价均高于上年,特别是集装箱船年平均运价比上年高出一倍多。与此同时,三大船型建造市场出现轮动效应,上半年散货船引导造船市场,下半年行情有所下滑,油船订单则从第二季度开始增加,而沉寂许久的集装箱船建造市场在下半年也开始出现大量新订单。预计2011年的船舶市场将难以维持2010年的繁荣局面,但集装箱船建造市场和海工装备有望延续2010年下半年出现的良好市场行情。     

船舶机舱电动往复机械的维护特点

通过对船舶机舱最常见的3种电动往复机械进行分析,得出电动往复机械维护管理的主要特点,并进一步弄清了3种电动往复机械的结构特点与工作原理。比较3种电动往复机械的维护特点,不仅对船舶机舱设备的日常维护管理起到一定的促进作用,还可以在一定程度上提高轮机管理人员的专业知识。     

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高速铁路为人们提供了一种高效的运输方式.本文借鉴弹性系数法的相关理论,首先运用广义费用函数测算样本中高铁开通前后两地区综合客运成本的变化,结合两地区高铁开通前后客运量的变化得到了运输成本弹性系数,用于衡量两地区对于高铁开通的迫切性程度,从而在另一个层面衡量高铁建设的可行性.然后根据运输经济学及新经济地理学的相关理论,从人口、距离、人均GDP差异、平均人均GDP和产业结构相似度5个维度对样本的运输成本弹性系数进行建模,运用神经网络的方法来拟合其对运输成本弹性系数的影响情况,并以此为依据来测算北京市和张家口市对即将开通的京张高铁的迫切性程度.     

Transport and society1

In 1963, the Buchanan Report in the UK advocated a combination of new road capacity, improved public transport and traffic restraint as a means to tackle congestion. Forty years on, and the advice from many transport experts remains the same. However, the scale and complexity of the problems associated with a mobility‐dependent society have grown. The need for politicians to make tough but realistic policy decisions on transport is now becoming unavoidable. They must confront the realities of living with the car as must the general public. Policymakers now also have social well‐being and sustainable development moving higher on their agendas alongside transport. Against such a backdrop, the paper makes the case for transport research, policy and practice to acknowledge more fully the inherent links between transport and society. It argues that greater recognition and understanding of such links is crucial to confronting the present realities. Transport does not merely serve society: it shapes society, as in turn society shapes transport. The future of each is dependent on the other, and this fact must be recognized. The paper advocates in turn that the transport profession must move from its heartlands in engineering and economics also to embrace more fully such disciplines as sociology and psychology. A factual picture of the many facets of present‐day society is presented and the implications for travel demand are discussed. Through considering phenomena such as social norms and habitual behaviour, it is then argued that the travel choices and behaviour of individuals are not simply a matter of economic optimization. This points to the need for decision‐makers to be furnished with better evidence about the transport problems faced and the potential efficacy of measures that might be taken. Discussion of public attitudes and the role of the media are included in the context of assessing how politicians can be encouraged and supported in their implementation of realistic but unpopular policies. Evidence and experience within the paper are UK based, although many of the issues and arguments apply world wide.     

Impacts of trade related sustainability strategies on freight transportation: Modelling framework and application for France

The circular and functional economies are being presented in the literature as potential strategies for future sustainable societies. In terms of the consequences for supply chains, they will promote a much more dispersed and diversified, local and network based usage of goods than the current economy, which is comparatively linear, concentrated, long distance oriented and scale economy based. A gap in the literature is the assessment of the effects of these systems on freight transport flows. In our paper, we present a first attempt at estimating this impact using freight transport scenario building and quantitative modelling. In order to translate the main parameters that characterize these systems into factors determining freight transportation volumes, we develop a framework based on a typology of goods categories describing functional and spatial proximity between producers and consumers. In order to simulate changes in the economy, we develop scenarios for the shifting of goods from one category to another and, additionally, include internalization policies that should guide their realization. We calculate the impacts on freight flows using a new interregional transport model for France that includes distribution chains and produces estimates of external costs of transport. Our results show that circular and functional economies could lead to a 2–5% reduction of air pollutant emissions and up to a 14–26% reduction if combined with the internalization of external costs. The scenario with ongoing mass production for differentiated demand is found to lead to a 5% increase of environmental impacts compared to the baseline.     

浅析如何加强铁路设计院科技档案管理

铁路设计院在勘察设计过程中产生的科技档案是铁路工程建设的重要资料和宝贵财富,是下一步施工、监理等建设环节的重要依据。只有不断地加强铁路设计院的纸质文件和电子文件的收集、整理和归档工作,才能保证铁路科技档案完整、准确、系统、安全和有效利用,更好地为铁路建设服务。本文对铁路勘察设计院科学技术档案纸质文件、电子文件归档过程中存在的一些问题以及解决方法进行论述。     

载热体设备的热冲击和配管的热应力

对载热体设备的热冲击应力进行了计算,进而总结出防止夹套破裂的对策;通过对配管热应力的分析,得出设计热配管的要点及应对配管热膨胀的方法.     

高黎贡山隧道1号竖井设计及分析

为了满足高黎贡山隧道竖井施工任务要求，综合隧道所处环境及竖井能力需求，按照竖井井口、井筒、井下3方面统筹考虑的总体设计思路，提出高黎贡山隧道1号竖井设计关键问题的解决方案： 1）根据井口地形、地貌条件及提升设备、井口车场布置要求，合理布置井口场坪； 2）根据竖井功能定位，竖井宜采用主副井模式； 3）根据井下施工的出渣量、材料数量、人员进出量等综合考虑竖井断面尺寸； 4）当地质条件、水文地质条件允许时，竖井宜采用短段掘砌混合作业法施工，设置模筑混凝土井壁； 5）竖井提升设备宜按井下施工期间的要求考虑，建井期间各设备之间能力应匹配； 6）竖井施工能力应满足井下施工期间出渣、进料要求，并留有富余； 7）井底车场应结合运输方式及进料、出渣等功能要求确定； 8）竖井安全保障应首要解决地下水问题。目前高黎贡山隧道1号竖井主井已完成建井，结果表明铁路隧道竖井按照以上设计方法及思路是可行的。