城轨线网规划中对铁路公交化功能定位的思考

利用铁路为城市提供公交化客运服务一直是很多城市的想法,2017年6月20日国家发展改革委发布《关于促进市域(郊)铁路发展的指导意见》,提出大力发展市域(郊)铁路,更从国家部委层面对此提出新的要求。从城市轨道交通规划角度出发,提出铁路公交化选择中应从分析交通需求特征和供给服务水平入手,明确铁路公交化项目在城市轨道交通全网中的功能定位,从时间、空间、发展预期3个维度,统筹分析铁路公交化能不能利用、怎么利用、能利用多久,从而在规划层面保证铁路公交化的可持续发展。     

从供需角度分析城市轨道交通相关规划的编制

作为轨道交通工程项目获批建设的前提,编制好城市轨道交通线网规划和建设规划显得愈发重要。在总结工作经验的基础上,提出一种从供需分析角度来理解城市轨道交通相关规划的编制方法。提出规划编制的需求分析和供给策略两大模块,对两大模块应该包含的二级模块进行说明,指出各模块应该包含的主要内容,对核心内容进行重点说明,期望用化繁为简的方式对城市轨道交通相关规划编制的方法进行论述,为行业谋求一个更舒适的编制环境,并指出目前影响城市轨道交通相关规划编制的其他因素,以供同行业者参考。     

考虑旅客需求的停站方案与列车运行图一体化模型与算法

考虑高速铁路旅客出行的时空敏感性较高的特点,将旅客运输状态引入运输时空网络,构建三维的时间-空间-状态网络,提出基于旅客需求的停站方案与列车运行图综合优化0-1整数规划模型,实现旅客分配、停站方案与列车运行图编制的一体化。设计拉格朗日松弛求解算法,将复杂的列车间强耦合问题分解为单列车的最短路径子问题集合,从而降低模型求解难度。以京沪高铁北京南-曲阜东区段为背景进行验证和分析,结果表明模型不仅实现了较低的运营成本,还能够有效满足旅客需求,实现客流分配、停站方案与列车运行图编制的有机联动。     

兰新铁路通道运输格局优化研究

研究兰新铁路通道运输格局,可为高效配置兰新铁路通道运力资源、优化其运输组织与运营管理、确定兰新线扩能改造方案等提供决策参考,可为"打赢蓝天保卫战"和"铁路北煤南运体系建设"背景下的新疆煤炭铁路外运提供运力保障。首先利用产运销平衡法、四阶段法等预测兰新铁路通道运输需求,即2020年兰新线嘉峪关至安北段货运密度6 004万t/年、客车32对/d;其次考虑运输需求、运输效率等因素,比选确定最优兰新铁路通道运输格局,即兰新线以货运功能为主、承担少部分长途普速客运,兰新高铁以高铁客流为主、承担大部分普速客运功能;最后提出兰新铁路通道运输格局优化策略,包括将兰新线的部分普速客车转移至兰新高铁、优化嘉峪关地区车站布局以协调兰新线点线能力、为兰新高铁开发动卧等新型运输服务产品等。     

Travel demand model system for the information era

The emergence of new information technologies and recent advances in existing technologies have provided new dimensions for travel demand decisions. In this paper we propose a comprehensive travel demand modeling framework to identify and model the urban development decisions of firms and developers and the mobility, activity and travel decisions of individuals and households, and to develop a system of models that can be used by decision makers and planners to evaluate the effects of changes in the transportation system and development of information technologies (e.g. various tele-commuting, tele-services and Intelligent Transportation Systems).The implementation of an operational model system based on this framework is envisioned as an incremental process starting with the current best practice of disaggregate travel demand model systems. To this end, we present an activity-based model system as the first stage in the development of an operational model system.     

产生率法区位影响修正方法研究

为减小城市交通需求预测中由于土地使用分析方面造成的误差,提出了一种基于城市区位差异分析的新的改进方法。从分析产生率法在城市交通需求预测中的地位、作用及缺陷出发,剖析了区位差异对城市出行产生率的影响,建立了城市区位优势度的概念、量化方法,深入分析了区位对出行生成阶段的影响误差与四阶段预测最终结果误差的关系,进而提出产生率法的区位影响修正方法,并应用于西安市高新区交通需求预测中,提高了模型的拟合效果。该方法能对城市新区出行生成、旧区出行生成矩阵更新提供借鉴。     

Modelling passenger demand for parkway rail stations

Interest in Parkway stations emerged in the 1980s. These act as convenient out-of-town stations for inter-urban rail journeys. There were 13 so-called Parkway stations in Great Britain in 1999 and two have subsequently been opened. This paper reports the development and application of a new Parkway forecasting model which was conducted for the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), undertaken as part of an extensive update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which recommends demand forecasting frameworks and associated parameters that are widely used in the railway industry in Great Britain. The objective was to develop a model that had more desirable properties and was more straightforward to apply than the previously recommended procedure. The focus is entirely upon inter-urban journeys of over 80 km.The model forecasts the demand for Parkway stations based solely on rail ticket sales data and its properties are illustrated with two case study applications. The nature of Parkway stations forces consideration of competition, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of a station choice component leads to a somewhat improved explanatory power and a more plausible generalised cost elasticity.In addition to the methodological developments, the model has provided generally reasonable elasticities and forecasts and shown that Parkway users have different preferences to rail travellers in general. In a test based around a newly opened Parkway station, its forecasts are more accurate than the procedure it replaces.     

Space,money, life-stage,and the allocation of time

Demographic, socioeconomic, seasonal, and scheduling factors affect the allocation of time to various activities. This paper examines those variables through exploration of the 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey, which has been inverted to track activity duration. Two key issues are considered. First, how much can activity duration and frequency explain travel duration? The analysis shows activity duration has positive and significant effects on travel duration, supporting recent arguments in favor of activity based models. Second, which recent trend is the main culprit in the rise in travel: suburbanization, rising personal incomes, or female labor force participation? This paper examines the share of time within a 24-hour budget allocated to several primary activities: home, work, shop, and other. The data suggest that income and location have modest effects on time allocation compared with the loss of discretionary time due to working.

     

What does a one-month free bus ticket do to habitual drivers? An experimental analysis of habit and attitude change

The aim of this study was to investigate whether a temporary structural change would induce a lasting increase in drivers' public transport use. An experiment targeting 43 drivers was carried out, in which a one-month free bus ticket was given to 23 drivers in an experimental group but not to 20 drivers in a control group. Attitudes toward, habits of, and frequency of using automobile and bus were measured immediately before, immediately after, and one month after the one-month long intervention. The results showed that attitudes toward bus were more positive and that the frequency of bus use increased, whereas the habits of using automobile decreased from before the intervention, even one month after the intervention period. Furthermore, the increase in habitual bus use had the largest effect on the increase in the frequency of bus use. The results suggest that a temporary structural change, such as offering auto drivers a temporary free bus ticket, may be an important travel demand management tool for converting automotive travel demand to public-transport travel demand.     

铁路客运需求弹性分析与营销对策

旅客的需求是保持和推动运输企业生存和发展的动力．如何提高市场占有率,增加需求量(客运量)就成了运输企业营销的首要问题．本文试图引用"需求弹性"理论,对我国铁路客运进行实绩分析,提出相应的营销对策