Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S. and China

We model consumer preferences for conventional, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric (BEV) vehicle technologies in China and the U.S. using data from choice-based conjoint surveys fielded in 2012–2013 in both countries. We find that with the combined bundle of attributes offered by vehicles available today, gasoline vehicles continue in both countries to be most attractive to consumers, and American respondents have significantly lower relative willingness-to-pay for BEV technology than Chinese respondents. While U.S. and Chinese subsidies are similar, favoring vehicles with larger battery packs, differences in consumer preferences lead to different outcomes. Our results suggest that with or without each country’s 2012–2013 subsidies, Chinese consumers are willing to adopt today’s BEVs and mid-range PHEVs at similar rates relative to their respective gasoline counterparts, whereas American consumers prefer low-range PHEVs despite subsidies. This implies potential for earlier BEV adoption in China, given adequate supply. While there are clear national security benefits for adoption of BEVs in China, the local and global social impact is unclear: With higher electricity generation emissions in China, a transition to BEVs may reduce oil consumption at the expense of increased air pollution and/or greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, demand from China could increase global incentives for electric vehicle technology development with the potential to reduce emissions in countries where electricity generation is associated with lower emissions.     

Modeling traffic crash rates of road segments through a lognormal hurdle framework with flexible scale parameter

This study examines distributional characteristics of crash rates for road segments using observed accident data. The results indicate that the distribution of crash rates is mixed and right‐skewed, which motivates the consideration of non‐normal distributions. With the aid of Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests, kernel density plots, and Q–Q plots, the lognormal distribution is verified as an appropriate candidate for representing the positive domain of crash rates. Then, a lognormal hurdle model was developed and also compared with gamma and Weibull hurdle models. Further, the lognormal hurdle model was revised by allowing the scale parameter to vary with respect to explanatory variables. Such a modification enables the heterogeneous skewness of samples to be captured while enhancing the modeling flexibility. The proposed model was also compared with a Tobit model, an alternative approach that treats crash rates as censored data. Among all these models, the proposed lognormal hurdle model with flexible scale parameter presents the best modeling performance, and the analyses also reveal that several explanatory variables affect crash rates through not only the location parameter but also the scale parameter in the lognormal model. This study finally attempted to inspect crash rates through count models, and it discovered that the proposed hurdle model is superior because it is able to output the whole distribution form of crash rates, whereas the crash count model can only provide the expected value of crash rates, provided the exposure variable servers as an offset term in the link function of the mean parameter. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同荷载图式作用下桥上无缝线路纵向力研究

2016年客货共线设计活载采用ZKH荷载图式代替了中-活载图式,其与ZK荷载图式存在明显差异,但两者作用下的无缝线路纵向力差异鲜有研究。建立有砟轨道单线简支梁线桥模型,对比分析了ZK,ZKH荷载图式作用下的无缝线路纵向力,研究了荷载图式变化对无缝线路纵向力的影响,并对建议的墩顶线刚度限值进行探讨。研究结果表明:ZK荷载图式作用下的无缝线路纵向力明显小于ZKH荷载图式,不同荷载图式引起的无缝线路纵向力差别受桥梁跨度影响不大,荷载图式作用下的无缝线路纵向力与图式竖向荷载基本呈线性关系。设计活载较大的线路对应的墩顶纵向线刚度限值也越大。     

浅谈影响新拌混凝土和易性的因素及改善措施

水泥混凝土是目前建筑工程中用途最为广泛、用量最大的建筑材料之一,了解新拌水泥混凝土的和易性对控制施工质量具有重要意义。     

考虑车流异质性的信号交叉口疏解车辆跟驰模型

为客观地描述绿灯期间交叉口进口道异质疏解车流的跟驰行为,基于实测数据验证全速差模型发现,其加速度、速度、车间距的仿真结果存在较大误差. 考虑不同车型车辆性能和驾驶员驾驶行为差异,基于4 种跟驰情景,即小客车跟驰小客车(car-car),小客车跟驰公交车(car-bus),公交车跟驰小客车(bus-car),公交车跟驰公交车(bus-bus),建立考虑车流异质性的车辆跟驰模型. 结果表明,改进模型的性能提升明显,较全速差模型,速度和跟驰间距的均方根百分比误差(RMSPE)分别下降了15.29%,22.32%,更符合交叉口进口道异质疏解车流的跟驰行为.     

基于客流量的城市公共交通运营财政补贴分配优化研究

目前我国大多数城市对公共交通企业亏损都是采用政府和企业协商确定政策性亏损补贴的方法,但这种方法不仅没有提高公交企业的运营效率,而且也没有减轻政府财政补贴的负担.本文分析道路交通和轨道交通的客流量,将轨道交通的趋势客流和道路交通向轨道交通的转移客流的总和作为道路交通企业需要对轨道交通企业进行补贴分配的客流量;应用经济学中的资源配置问题,将公共交通运营收入的财政补贴和公共交通车辆改造的财政补贴看作两种资源,并将其分别分配到道路交通和轨道交通中;以客流量为约束条件,并根据线性规划的对偶理论推算城市公共交通运营财政补贴的影子价格;再联合分配客流量构建城市公共交通运营财政补贴的分配优化模型;最后以重庆市的公共交通为例,验证模型的可行性.     

内河集装箱港锚地—泊位资源配置多目标决策

鉴于锚地—泊位资源配置直接影响内河集装箱港的运作效率,且受到内河航道及岸线等设施资源制约,本文在考虑船舶通行安全的基础上,运用随机服务理论,以港口总成本和船舶在港等待时间最小为目标,建立内河集装箱港锚地—泊位配置的多目标规划模型,设计了一种针对非线性整数规划问题的实代码遗传算法,并以重庆某集装箱港作为算例,验证该模型的合理性和算法的有效性,同时分析了不同船舶到港强度和泊位服务强度下的锚地—泊位最佳配置关系,为建立和拓展内河集装箱港资源优化和配置提供理论基础.     

金融危机对我国汽车产业的影响及对策

随着美国的金融危机地加剧和蔓延,美国的汽车产业正遭受着巨大冲击。我国的汽车产业也受到了影响：汽车销售量增幅明显放缓、汽车经销商压力增加、整车与零部件出口下降、汽车产业就业形势严峻、消费者购车信心不足。表面上看,对我国汽车产业的影响是有限的,但就长期和深层次而言,可能是巨大的。为此,我国政府和汽车企业应采取相应的措施应对这场金融和经济危机,积极支持和鼓励汽车企业自主创新,调整产品结构,大力发展二三级市场和农村汽车市场,扶持自主品牌汽车企业的发展,保持我国汽车产业的持续、健康、快速发展。     

财政投融资建设项目造价控制的问题与对策

针对财政投融资建设项目工程造价控制所存在的概算编制不规范、工程设计缺陷、招标文件编制质量低劣、签订的合同不严密及工程签证把关不严的问题进行分析,通过分析与研究,对如何进一步完善财政投融资建设项目的工程造价控制提出相应的对策和措施,这对进一步保证财政资金的使用安全和提高使用效率具有实际意义。     

技术站配流与调机运用综合问题的拉格朗日松弛算法

技术站调度问题中配流与调机运用是关系密切的两个基础问题。基于单机器调度和资源分配理论,构建单解单编技术站配流与调机运用综合问题的混合整数线性规划模型,同时确定出发列车的编组内容和调机的解编任务,使得出发列车满足列车编组要求,且车辆在站加权总停留时间最小。设计拉格朗日松弛算法松弛掉连接约束,将原问题分解为解体子问题、配流子问题和编组子问题,对偶问题采用传统次梯度优化算法求解。最后,采用既有文献算例对该算法的有效性进行测试,结果表明:与分支定界算法相比,该算法能够实现计算质量和时间的较好折中。