双层嵌套多目标概率模型在珠江三角洲港口工程环境分析中的应用

鉴于未来全球气候变暖、台风强度和频次有逐渐加剧的趋势,建港地区工程风险须得到重视。在分析了珠江三角洲所受台风灾害的基本类型后,采用双层嵌套多目标概率模式及复合极值分布模型（MCEVD）对珠三角的台风灾害及超强台风进行了预测,并将计算结果应用于港区最大风速、波高、排水等方面的设计。该模型能全面系统地反映台风致灾的整体机制,在港口工程环境分析中得到了较好的应用。     

船舶柴油机调速器参数整定的多目标优化和多属性决策研究

综合考虑系统在输入阶跃扰动和负荷扰动两个工况时的超调量、稳定时间和ITAE指标,研究了PID控制器参数寻优的问题。采用多目标遗传算法求出Pareto最优解,使用信息熵法和逼近理想解的排序方法（TOPSIS）对Pareto最优解给出了排序。计算了一艘水面船舶柴油机调速器控制的数值算例,结果表明本文方法有效,所设计的PID性能优异,可以工程实际应用。     

供应链企业在各种关系下的价格折扣方案设计

供应链企业间的关系管理是供应链管理的重点,而价格折扣是供应链企业间最常用的关系协调机制。文中用一个有一个供应商与多个经销商的供应链,假定了四种特殊关系,即：（1）横向（经销商之间）、纵向（与供应商）不合作;（2）横向不合作,纵向合作;（3）横向合作,纵向不合作;（4）横向合作,纵向合作。针对供应链企业之间的各种关系设计不同的价格折扣方案以满足供应链企业的利益最大化;对各种关系下的价格折扣方案进行比较,得到了不同关系下价格折扣率的取值范围。     

物流产业的非差异性定价模型研究

物流产业中的活动主要是依靠物流网络采实现的,同时,物流产业的竞争又体现在物流企业的定价策略上,本文运用博弈论原理和方法,结合我国具体环境,建立了物流产业中非差异性的物流网络定价模型,在此基础上,对非差异性物流网络定价从经济学的角度进行了深入分析。最后,从政府的角度对物流产业的非差异性定价提出了建设性的建议。     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

A Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy with multiclass network equilibria

This paper extends the work on Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy for general road networks by considering heterogeneous users with different values of time. Mathematical programming models are proposed to find a multiclass Pareto-improving pure road space rationing scheme (MPI-PR) and multiclass hybrid rationing and pricing schemes (MHPI and MHPI-S). A numerical example with a multimodal network is provided for comparing both the efficiency and equity of the three proposed policies. We discover that MHPI-S can achieve the largest reduction in total system delay, MHPI can induce the least spatial inequity and MHPI-S is a progressive policy which is appealing to policy makers. Furthermore, numerical results reveal that different classes of users react differently to the same hybrid policies and multiclass Pareto-improving hybrid schemes yield less delay reduction when compared to their single-class counterparts.     

Adapting without Retreating: Responses to Shoreline Change on an Inlet-Associated Coastal Beach

Coastal barrier systems around the world are experiencing higher rates of flooding and shoreline erosion. Property owners on barriers have made significant financial investments in physical protections that shield their nearby properties from these hazards, constituting a type of adaptation to shoreline change. Factors that contribute to adaptation on Plum Island, a developed beach and dune system on the North Shore of Massachusetts, are investigated here. Plum Island experiences patterns of shoreline change that may be representative of many inlet-associated beaches, encompassing an equivocal and dynamically shifting mix of erosion and accretion. In the face of episodic floods and fleeting erosive events, and driven by a combination of strong northeast storms and cycles of erosion and accretion, the value of the average Plum Island residence increases by 34% for properties on the oceanfront where protection comprises a publicly constructed soft structure. Even in the face of state policies that ostensibly discourage physical protection as a means of adaptation, coastal communities face significant political and financial pressures to maintain existing protective structures or to allow contiguous groups of property owners to build new ones through collective action. These factors mitigate against adapting to shoreline change by retreating from the coast, thereby potentially increasing the adverse effects of coastal hazards.     

船舶六自由度转台电液伺服系统参数整定方法

针对船舶六自由度转台电液伺服系统的参数整定问题,提出一种基于多目标遗传算法和多属性决策的PID参数设计方法,综合考虑了系统超调量、稳定时间和ITAE指标,采用多目标遗传算法求出Pareto最优解。使用客观赋权的信息熵法对最优解的属性进行权值计算,然后采用逼近理想解的排序方法（TOP—SIS）进行多属性决策（MADM）研究。计算了转台电液伺服控制的数值算例,结果表明本文提出的联合方法通用性好,所设计的PID性能优异,适合工程实际应用。     

考虑多目标的城市停车换乘选址优化模型及算法

停车换乘选址问题是城市交通网络设计研究的重点领域,已有研究的优化目标多集中在系统总费用方面,而对交通可持续发展方面考虑不足。为此,提出综合考虑多方面目标的停车换乘设施选址优化模型及其求解算法。首先,基于超网络理论,提出多方式城市交通系统的超网络模型并定义O-D (Origin-destination)间的超路径、有效超路径及子路径,结合出行者出行过程及交通网络拥挤特征,给出超路径费用的数学表达;其次,基于多方式交通网络随机均衡配流结果,构建交通总阻抗、污染物排放量以及交通系统公平性等系统优化指标的计算模型,并建立用以描述停车换乘设施选址问题的多目标优化模型;进而,以多目标系统优化模型为上层问题,以超网络下满足Logit分配的多方式交通网络配流模型为下层问题,构建描述城市多方式交通系统停车换乘设施选址问题的双层规划模型,并基于模型特征,结合“记录-搜索”思想设计非支配排序遗传算法进行求解;最后,基于Sioux Falls网络设计算例。研究结果表明：算法能够在有限的步骤内搜索到90%以上的Pareto最优解;平均而言,停车换乘措施使得交通总阻抗减小了0.31%,污染物排放量减少了7.32%...     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.