一种基于动态分析的突变和异常波动预警方法

针对模拟量的突变和异常波动预警,给出一种基于动态分析的、可以应用于各种模拟量的统一预警方法,该方法已被应用于CSM-TH型集中监测程序和智能分析系统中,在多条线700余站现场运行的7年中,收到良好效果,得到用户认可。     

基于语义挖掘的快递运输货品风险评价研究

为提高快递运输的风险监测管控能力，降低因快递货品风险导致城市安全事件发生的可 能性，本文基于语义挖掘方法将快递运输货品描述转化为风险的量化表征，为快递运输风险评价 提供可量化的客观指标依据。基于网络大数据资源提供的法院判决书数据，将物品词条与判决 结果相关联，通过隐狄利克雷分布模型挖掘物品风险主题，结合模糊均值聚类方法，实现对快递 货品语义风险的量化表征与柔性划分。与传统方法中依赖检视人员查验既定违禁品清单后的主 观判断方法不同，本文充分挖掘网络文本数据中的可迁移知识，并应用于种类繁多的快递运输货 品，有效避免人工评价造成的漏检、错检情况。研究结果表明，本文方法具有较高的准确率与较 低的误报率，获得的风险评价值不再是0或1的是非判断，有利于开展多样化、针对性的风险预警 及应对措施。     

成昆铁路矮塔斜拉桥索梁锚固区模型试验研究北大核心

为研究铁路矮塔斜拉桥索梁锚固区的受力形式,以成昆铁路金沙江大桥为工程背景,针对该桥采用的新型梁顶混凝土锚固构造,通过缩尺模型试验研究其在不同荷载下的应力分布和开裂特征。结果表明:在斜拉桥成桥恒载索力作用以及最不利荷载组合索力作用下,C7锚固块更容易发生破坏,将其作为试验构件开展缩尺模型试验,发现锚固块在不同张拉荷载作用下张拉至设计索力的过程中,应变增幅基本上线性增加,卸载后同样呈线性减小,说明混凝土受力处在线弹性阶段,且应力在规范要求范围内。在试验荷载加载至140%设计索力时,锚固块前端倒角位置开始出现细小裂纹且随荷载的增加不断开展。当荷载卸载至0时,之前出现的裂缝随荷载的减小逐渐闭合,宽度肉眼不可见,表明该构造能够满足正常使用要求且具备足够的安全储备。     

信号交叉口行人二次过街下右转车通行能力与延误估计模型

在充分分析典型四相位交叉口行人二次过街设置前、后的行人流与右转车流冲突的前提下，以行人过街时间占有率和行人群到达分布作为分析指标，利用可插车间隙理论得出行人单向通行和双向通行条件下的右转车通行能力计算公式；根据行人流随机消散和集中消散的不同特征，应用随机分布理论推导出右转车穿越行人流的延误模型；并通过算例对比分析行人二次过街设置前、后右转车通行能力和延误的变化值。结果表明，除了在少数行人流量比较大的情况下， 行人二次过街的设置会小幅度减少右转车的延误；在其他大多数情况下，行人二次过街设置后， 右转车的通行能力将受到限制，延误增大，其中，平均通行能力降低了16.68%，平均延误时间增大 了21%，所以，当右转车交通需求较大时，需同时考虑行人和右转车的交通运行状态，优化设计是否采用行人二次过街，避免右转车超出极限忍耐时间而增大与行人冲突的概率。     

Does crowding affect the path choice of metro passengers?

This paper investigates crowding effect on the path choice of metro passengers. We show people reroute not only to avoid the delay from crowding but also to evade crowding itself. More specifically, a logit model fits best when it uses the transit delay from crowding as well as the passenger load of a connection in addition to the conventional explanatory variables. Also, we demonstrate that crowding decreases the overall welfare of metro passengers. The model is tested on the real path choice data acquired by the recent algorithm by Hong et al. (2015) known to detect the real path choice from Smart Card data in more than 90% of the cases.     

基于信令数据的出行强度影响因素分析模型

为探究城市交通出行强度影响因素及不同因素的影响程度，本文从土地利用与交通基础设施建设两方面出发，分析包括土地利用混合指数，职住混合率熵指数，公共交通站点 500 m覆盖率，路网可达性等17个指标与出行强度的相关关系；基于相关系数和拟合优度分析，提取7个与出行强度强相关指标，基于所识别指标构建北京市中心城区出行强度多元回归模型.模型结果表明，职住混合率熵指数对出行强度的影响最为显著，公共交通站点覆盖率对出行强度的影响比道路网密度和可达性更为明显.此外，给出单一土地利用/交通基础设施指标对出行强度拟合结果的离群特征分析方法，用于评估不同区域基础设施供给与交通出行需求之间的平衡关系.     

轨道复合不平顺对无缝线路横向变形的影响分析

轨道复合不平顺会对行车的安全及稳定性产生较大影响,也是影响无缝线路横向变形的一个重要因素。为研究轨道复合不平顺对无缝线路的具体影响,通过构建三维轨道框架非线性有限元模型,采用轨道框架单点(或多点)位置发生横向及竖向位移来模拟复合不平顺状态,通过计算获取节点位移变化规律,进而分析轨道复合不平顺对无缝线路横向变形的影响作用。研究结果表明,轨道的复合不平顺会对无缝线路的横向变形产生显著的影响;当线路出现三角坑等类似病害时,其节点位移变化更为显著,在无缝线路的日常养护维修中应尤为注意。     

移动闭塞系统区间通过能力分析及参数计算

移动闭塞条件下“闭塞分区”呈现出“移动”和“长度变化”的特征,其区间通过能力的计算较固定闭塞系统更加复杂。本文建立了移动闭塞系统区间通过能力的数学模型,对区间通过能力与列车追踪运行速度、跟驰车距和列车性能等参数之间的相互关系进行了定性、定量分析,并就关鍵参数的计算方法进行了深入的讨论,对移动闭塞条件下的列车运行控制与行车组织有一定的参考价值。     

Policy packages for modal shift and CO2 reduction in Lille,France

This paper proposes different policy scenarios to cut CO₂ emissions caused by the urban mobility of passengers. More precisely, we compare the effects of the ‘direct tool’ of carbon tax, to a combination of ‘indirect tools’ – not originally aimed at reducing CO₂ (i.e. congestion charging, parking charges and a reduction in public transport travel time) in terms of CO₂ impacts through a change in the modal split. In our model, modal choices depend on individual characteristics, trip features (including the effects of policy tools), and land use at origin and destination zones. Personal “CO₂ emissions budgets” resulting from the trips observed in the metropolitan area of Lille (France) in 2006 are calculated and compared to the situation related to the different policy scenarios. We find that an increase of 50% in parking charges combined with a cordon toll of €1.20 and a 10% travel time decrease in public transport services (made after recycling toll-revenues) is the winning scenario. The combined effects of all the policy scenarios are superior to their separate effects.     

Fast-charging station choice behavior among battery electric vehicle users

This study explores how battery electric vehicle users choose where to fast-charge their vehicles from a set of charging stations, as well as the distance by which they are generally willing to detour for fast-charging. The focus is on fast-charging events during trips that include just one fast-charge between origin and destination in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. Mixed logit models with and without a threshold effect for detour distance are applied to panel data extracted from a two-year field trial on battery electric vehicle usage in Japan. Findings from the mixed logit model with threshold show that private users are generally willing to detour up to about 1750 m on working days and 750 m on non-working days, while the distance is 500 m for commercial users on both working and non-working days. Users in general prefer to charge at stations requiring a shorter detour and use chargers located at gas stations, and are significantly affected by the remaining charge. Commercial users prefer to charge at stations encountered earlier along their paths, while only private users traveling on working days show such preference and they turn to prefer the stations encountered later when choosing a station in peak hours. Only private users traveling on working days show a strong preference for free charging. Commercial users tend to pay for charging at a station within 500 m detour distance. The fast charging station choice behavior is heterogeneous among users. These findings provide a basis for early planning of a public fast charging infrastructure.