Forecasting Travel Demand with Alternatively Structured Models of Trip Frequency

Abstract

This paper develops alternatively structured trip frequency/generation models, and investigates their forecast performance. The first model presented is the simple linear model with a discussion of its theoretical shortcomings. Models that address, in a progressive fashion, the underlying shortcomings of the linear model are then presented. These models are namely the truncated normal model, the Poisson model, the negative binomial model, and an ordered logit model. The modeling unit employed in the study is the individual. The models are assessed by how closely they are able to replicate trips produced by each individual in the dataset, and by each traffic zone. This assessment of performance in prediction is conducted on an estimation dataset collected in the Toronto Region in 1986, and on an independent dataset collected in the same geographic region, 10 years later, in 1996. The results show that, notwithstanding the simplicity of the simple linear model and its lack of an explicit underlying travel behavioral theory, it predicts travel in the base and forecast years with less error compared to any of the more complex models.     

Segmentation of paratransit users based on service quality and travel behaviour in Bandung,Indonesia

Using a data-set collected among paratransit users in Bandung, Indonesia, this paper explores the impacts of paratransit users' negative experiences and dissatisfactions with their paratransit usage pattern. Segmentation and ordered probit analyses are used to examine the impacts of users' opinions on service quality on their trip-making behaviour. The results indicate that users are divided into six segments – namely, the unlucky, the young user, the experienced, the adapter, the infrequent user and the captive. The results further indicate that paratransit users, especially women, perceive negative experiences related to on-time performance (departure and arrival time) and security issues related to vehicles. Despite these dissatisfactions and negative experiences, they are still likely to use paratransit as part of their daily life. Two paratransit market segments (the adapter and the captive) are also likely to result in more trips using paratransit. The study offers several strategies and recommendations that can improve the current paratransit system so that it can better serve local needs.     

曲线钢箱梁支座反力分析及处理措施探讨

小半径曲线连续钢箱梁桥在初始设计支承条件下,在最不利工况时,支反力出现较大负值。如果不采取措施,桥梁运营期支座可能会脱空,对桥梁及桥墩正常使用带来不利影响。根据曲线梁桥的特点,防止支座脱空一般采用设置拉压支座,或者梁端配重、支座横向调整等构造措施。文中结合设计实例,根据有限元计算,比较配重前后支座反力,结合钢箱梁自身特点,确定采用的最优构造措施,理论上解决支座脱空的问题。通过成桥静载试验证实采取的措施具有良好效果。     

VTS监督过失行为渎职风险法律问题探讨

文中依托刑法学和行政法学理论,就我国VTS在监管和服务双重功能定位的语境下,VTS监督过失责任风险问题,以＂行为人的主观方面＂为切入点,以是否具备＂刑法上的因果关系＂为分析点,结合大陆法系＂信赖原则＂等理论,分别就VTS监督过失的三种形式：脱岗失职、建议失误、疏忽监控是否具有渎职刑罚责难性做详细探讨。     

关于对水上交通事故责任人进行刑事追究的探讨

文中针对部分构成交通肇事罪的水上交通事故由于种种原因仍一定程度上存在以行政处罚“代替”刑事处罚的现象,结合实际,从水上交通事故中的责任人刑事责任追究的法律依据、案件移送、实例探讨、目前水上交通事故刑责追究工作存在的不足及建议等方面进行了简要分析。     

单桩负摩阻力特性的离散元与有限元模拟分析

桩侧负摩阻力对桩基产生下拽力,对桩基的承载力和沉降均不利,对受负摩阻力桩基进行设计时,需要正确估计桩基负摩阻力的大小及中性点的位置。开发颗粒流程序来模拟单桩负摩阻力的工作性状,验证中性点的位置并对桩侧土体细观特性进行分析。     

某家用轿车水温虚高报警原因分析

某主机厂售后市场反馈某款车型发生多起水温虚高引发水温报警故障,导致客户不满和投诉。作者配合主机厂售后服务人员赴事发现场参与多起事故原因调查,经现场勘查和分析验证,最终查明故障原因,并制定整改措施予以实施。     

建筑物荷载对超长单桩基础影响的三维模拟分析

以沿海地区甬台温复线ZK40段典型地层参数为依据,采用ABAQUS进行建模,模拟单桩基础在不同情况受建筑物荷载的作用.模拟结果显示,随着建筑物荷载的大小、距离、面积以及桩顶荷载的变化,桩基础的受力和位移也相应变化,验证了堆填土对桩基础的影响规律.     

一种新的确定嵌岩桩竖向承载力的解析算法

采用正弦-全塑性模型来描述嵌岩桩的侧摩阻力与桩土相对位移之间的传递关系,导出了无限长桩桩侧阻力与桩顶相对位移之间的解析解;同时桩端阻力与桩端位移之间采用负指数-全塑性模型描述,进而得出了桩顶沉降量与竖向承载力之间的关系。并通过对某一嵌岩桩静载试验数据进行对比分析表明,该计算方法与实测结果吻合良好,方法简单实用,具有一定...     

降水沉降对竖向受荷单桩的影响

针对地下水开采引起的地面沉降区段,研究了降水沉降对竖向受荷桩基的影响.基于单相流假设和Bishop有效应力原理,结合简化的直线型土水特征曲线,建立了反映地下水位下降桩周土饱和-非饱和沉降的数学模型.假设桩土界面极限抗剪强度随深度递增,桩土界面的荷载传递函数为理想弹塑性模型,桩端土采用双曲线模型,采用剪切位移法计算分析了...