A new estimation approach for the multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) choice model

This paper develops a blueprint (complete with matrix notation) to apply Bhat’s (2011) Maximum Approximate Composite Marginal Likelihood (MACML) inference approach for the estimation of cross-sectional as well as panel multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) models. A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed approach to recover parameters from a cross-sectional MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does very well in recovering parameters, as well as appears to accurately capture the curvature of the Hessian of the log-likelihood function. The paper also demonstrates the application of the proposed approach through a study of individuals’ recreational (i.e., long distance leisure) choice among alternative destination locations and the number of trips to each recreational destination location, using data drawn from the 2004 to 2005 Michigan statewide household travel survey.     

公路隧道照明精确检测与智能控制系统研究

为解决公路隧道照明系统节能与行车安全、运营管理之间的矛盾，采用理论分析及实际检验的方法，分析了隧道照明控制系统的调光原理、照明控制系统结构以及亮度检测误差产生的原因，设计了一种可调量程的亮度检测仪并给出校准及亮度检测步骤，解决了公路隧道亮度精确检测的难题，采用模糊神经网络算法在照明系统中进行了实际应用，实践证明本算法在亮度满足实际运营需求的前提下可取得良好的节能效果。     

动力湿化作用下粗粒土高路堤渗流场时空演化模型试验

为了研究动力湿化作用下渗流水在粗粒土高路堤内的迁移特性，自主研发设计制作一种室内喷洒降雨装置及车辆动力荷载模拟装置，开展动力湿化作用下粗粒土高路堤渗流场时空演化模型试验，从时间和空间2个角度描述渗流水在路堤内的迁移特性，然后根据模型试验结果，建立粗粒土渗流场时空演化机制，揭示动力湿化作用下的粗粒土高路堤边坡渐变失稳发育机理。研究结果表明：基于相似理论，开展粗粒土高路堤渗流场时空演化模型试验可以较为真实地反映粗粒土高路堤在动力湿化作用下渗流水的迁移特性；动力湿化作用下，湿润锋首先在路堤边坡表面形成，并逐渐从边坡表面向内部拓展，在坡顶处的拓展速率较小，坡脚处的拓展速率较大；受湿润锋演变规律的影响，路堤边坡监测点负孔隙水压力逐渐减小，体积含水率逐渐增大，坡前应力逐渐增加，位于坡脚浅层区域的应力增加速度较快；依据渗流水的迁移规律，将渗流影响范围内的土体自上而下分为浅层暂态饱和区、渗流水填充区及渗流水湿润区；在动力湿化作用下，粗粒土高路堤边坡将逐渐产生沿坡脚深层滑移的渐变趋势。     

基于径向基函数网络的社会消费品总额预测模型

利用BP、RBF神经网络自适应学习法模型,对社会消费品总额进行了预测和研究,结果表明用RBF网络自适应学习法所建立的模型经过训练后,可得到较精确的预测结果,并具有较强的应用性。     

频谱分析的一类新算法

本文指出可替代ＦＦＩ法的一类频谱分析新算法，它们以功率谱形式给出，文中给出一个构造算创并与同类算法作了比较。     

海事信息安全关键技术研究

因全国海事系统的计算机都通过网络联系到一起,信息安全的内涵也就发生了根本的变化。它不仅从一般性的防卫变成了一种非常普通的防范,而且还从一种专门的领域变成了无处不在。当步入21世纪这一信息社会、网络社会的时候,建立起一套完整的海事信息安全体系也成为当务之急。     

华为CDI板在铁路通信网中的应用

介绍华为HONET系列多业务接入设备的CDI板在铁路通信网中的应用,并以电调业务为例,介绍了CDI板的网络组成、详细数据配置和常见故障处理。     

THE CHANGES OF CHILDREN′S BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS IN XI′AN DURING FIVE YEARS FROM 1988 TO 1993

ＢｙｕｓｉｎｇＣＢＣＬ（ＣｈｉｌｄＢｅｈａｖｉｏｒＣｈｅｃｋｌｉｓｔ）ｏｆＸｉ′ａｎｎｏｒｍ，ｔｈｅｃｈｉｌｄｒｅｎ＇ｓｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓｉｎＸｉ′ａｎｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｉｎｖｅｓｔｉｇａｔｅｄａｎｄｃｏｍｐａｒｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｒｅｓｕｌｔｓｏｂｔａｉｎｅｄｂｅｆｏｒｅ１９９３，ｔｈｅｐｏｓｉｔｉｖｅｒｅｓｕｌｔｓｐｒｏｖｉｄｅｓｃｉｅｎｔｉｆｉｃｂａｓｉｓｆｏｒｄｉａｇｎｏｓｉｓａｎｄｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃｅｆｏｒｔｅａｃｈｅｒｓ．ＭＡＴＥＲＩＡＬＳＡＮＤＭＥＴＨＯＤＳＴｈｅｐｕｐｉｌ…     

Transportation agencies experiences with decision support systems for airport ground access planning

This article reports on a field investigation into the ways that transportation agencies use quantitative and qualitative information for making strategic decisions regarding airport ground access. The study analyzes the value of this information for planning airport ground access improvements at seven major international airport sites.The major finding of the research is that quantitative modeling for strategic decision support is very difficult, costly and time consuming. Modelers are confident that the models are accurate and reliable but executives generally lack confidence in the results. Transportation officials believe that the information supplied is flawed by a number of defects that minimize its value for strategic decision makers. The information defects described in this article provide an analysis of the structural difficulty of using quantitative modeling for transportation problems of strategic importance. To date, qualitative information is not frequently used, but some transportation agencies are considering its application to designing transportation services. Although this study is limited to airport ground access, the authors feel that this evidence, in conjunction with the evidence from other studies in the transportation area, dictates a need for wariness in the development of decision support systems for transportation planners. Developers of decision support systems for transportation planners must be aware of modeling costs and defects and consider how to improve the timeliness, relevance and credibility of information quantitative models provide transportation executives. Fundamentally it is important to recognize that decision makers tend, either singularly or in concert with other individuals or groups, to be the champions of a long-term vision for the community. When modeling produces inconsistent or wide ranging results that contradict their position, decision makers may not only discard modeling activities, but lose confidence in the models altogether. As a consequence, transportation planners are faced with the challenge of how to improve quantitative modeling. The most reliable and effective means for improvement is incorporation of qualitative techniques which provide greater understanding of customer perceptions and human behavior.     

一种实用路由器的设计研究

基于一个已完成的部级科研项目的研究，提出了一种实用的可用于互联中小型局域网的通用路由器的总体设计方案。说明了路由器的功能需求，着重从软硬件设计上讨论了其实现过程。