航道条件对船舶航行可靠性的影响

运用可靠性理论及回归分析来研究航道条件对船舶航行可靠性的影响,并建立其航道条件诸因素影响的可靠性模型,以提供驾驶员对航道条件影响船舶运行的直观认识,并为驾驶自动化提供数理模型。     

城市轨道交通客流增长滞后性与预测方法研究

城市轨道交通客流是确定城市轨道交通建设规模及投资决策的主要依据,然而客流增长速度并不与城市轨道交通建设同步.考虑到城市轨道交通客流增长的滞后性,利用上海城市轨道交通1996-2010年客流与建设数据,基于协整理论建立了向量自回归模型进行城市轨道交通客流预测.研究结果表明:城市轨道交通客流与城市轨道交通网络长度以及连接度存在协整关系;在城市轨道交通建设初期,客流增长对于网络长度具有显著滞后性,随着城市轨道交通系统的完善客流滞后性减弱;2011年上海城市轨道客流预测误差为9.3％.     

雾化液滴尺寸和速度分布函数的推导

为了增强雾化液滴质量和热量的传递,有效预测与评价喷雾质量,应用最大熵原理和动量守恒定律推导出了新的雾化液滴尺寸和速度的概率密度分布函数,包括数目分布函数、数目微分分布函数、体积分布函数、体积微分分布函数与总体积公式。当不考虑速度分布时,推导的喷雾液滴尺寸分布与曹建明先前推导的尺寸分布具有完全相同的形式,其分布函数是Nukiyama-Tanasawa型雾化液滴尺寸分布函数的一种特定形式,推导结果具有普适意义。     

一个改进的二次规划型算法

建立非线性等式和不等式约束规划问题的一个序列二次规划(SQP)型算法.算法的每次迭代只需解一个确实可解的二次规划,然后对其解进行简单的显式校正,便可产生关于罚函数是下降的搜索方向,克服Maratos效应.在适当的假设条件下,还论证了算法的全局收敛性和超线性收敛性.     

Travel attitudes and mode use among Asian international students at an Australian university

International students and immigrants in general are fuelling the growth in Australia’s population and the pressure that is putting on its urban transport systems. Yet, we know very little about their travel habits and limited previous research has been previously undertaken to address this gap. To address this research need, this study draws on a survey that was designed and distributed online and on-campus to students at Australia’s largest university (Monash University). Using multivariate statistical tools including factor analysis and multinomial logistic regression, significant differences were found between native-born Australian and Asian international students with regards to their mode perceptions, present travel habits and socio-demographics. For Asian students, attitudes towards non-car mode decrease and car-dependency increases the longer they reside in Australia. The findings of this research further highlight the need to encourage newer immigrants to use more sustainable travel options and highlight the relevance for local government and policy planners to support further research in this area, given that these international students have the potential to be key agents for travel behaviour change.     

Exploring vessel-price dynamics: the case of the dry bulk market

We investigate second-hand vessel price heterogeneity. Based on a sample of 5,591 purchase and sale transactions in the dry bulk sector over the period 1998–2016, we deploy a nonparametric regression technique to assess the determinants of vessel price and vessel price variability. Next, we use quantile regression to estimate the effect of regressors (sources of heterogeneity) at different parts of the vessel price distribution. We find evidence that main sources of vessel price heterogeneity are the age of the ship (the older the vessel the higher its maintenance cost), the 3-month LIBOR (reflecting the cost of financing) and the annual charter rate (revenues from operation). Their influence is stronger at all higher quantiles (periods of expansion) and the median of the vessel price distribution.     

Aural comfort prediction method for high-speed trains under complex tunnel environments

Aural comfort is negatively affected during a train’s passage through various tunnel environments. The objective of this study was to propose a prediction model for determining optimal operation parameter combinations to improve train occupants’ aural comfort. High-speed train model tests, combined with a mathematical transfer model, were used to obtain the interior pressure transients under varying speeds, tunnel lengths and seal indexes. Then, a middle ear finite element model was used to simulate the dynamic responses under the pressure transients, and three indicators were employed to assess the severity of aural sensations. Meanwhile, the aural discomfort were classified into four groups according to the duration. Based on the simulation results, the ordinal regression analysis method was used to reveal the effects of the considered factors on aural comfort. The results indicate that aural discomfort sensations begin when a train runs in the middle of a tunnel but are mitigated when it approaches the tunnel exit. Furthermore, aural discomfort is positively correlated with the train speed and the distance from the driver cabin of the head car but negatively correlated with the seal index and tunnel length. As a conclusion, a mathematical prediction model was established that incorporates factors including the train speed, seal index, tunnel length and car position. It can not only forecast aural sensations under certain operation parameters and tunnel environments but also be used for determining the optimal operation parameters to ensure the best aural sensations for high-speed-train occupants.     

卡尔曼滤波算法在空气质量数据校准中的应用

针对自建点实时监控存在的零点漂移和量程漂移导致空气质量数据测量精度受到制约的问题,提出一种基于卡尔曼滤波算法对空气质量数据进行校准的模型。以PM2.5数据为例,结合其他空气质量数据及气象参数经逐步回归得到调整的数据后,使用改进的卡尔曼滤波算法对自建点测量数据进行校准。经同一时间区间内的自建点、国控点测量及校准数据的对比分析表明:通过改进的卡尔曼滤波校准空气质量数据能够很好地跟踪实际数据的变化趋势,平均误差比较小;使用模型将2019年5月、2018年12月数据的均方根误差分别从11.367、27.188降低至修正后的7.555、10.759,精度得到了显著提高。     

基于网联数据的电动车快速充电影响因素分析

基于北京市私家电动汽车网联数据，按照充电行为类型提取车辆行程，并对行程中影响快速充电行为的潜在因素进行细致分析；基于Logistic回归模型进行显著性影响因素识别，结果表明，电动汽车续航里程、出行距离、出行时间等因素显著影响电动汽车的快速充电行为；最后，基于显著影响因素建立模型，对私家电动汽车快速充电行为进行预测，预测结果表明，预测模型具有较好的预测效果和可靠度.本文研究成果将有助于优化私家电动汽车的充电行为，提高充电效率.     

A meta-analysis of Western European external costs estimates

This paper analyses the external transport cost estimates that have been found in various European studies. These estimates seem at first glance to be highly dispersed, a fact which raises questions about their reliability. The article offers a list of the possible reasons for discrepancies between the various studies; differences in the specific situations studied, in the type of cost calculated, in the physical laws relating to emissions, in the measurement of values of external costs. It assesses the relative magnitude of each of these causes through a meta-analysis. It turns out that the main differences come from the specificity of the situation under review and the type of cost calculated. In comparison, differences in the laws and in the values methods have a lower importance. The conclusion is that the estimates of external costs are reliable for decision-making policies.