公路枢纽项目客运量预测方法初探

公路客运量发展预测是公路客运枢纽站项目可行性研究中的主要内容 ,是确定一个项目建设规模的基础条件。探讨应用经济指标与公路客运量统计数据作为基础数据 ,在经济指标预测中采用增长系数法和三次指数平滑法进行预测 ,采用回归分析模型进行客运量预测 ,从而为公路客运枢纽项目确定规模提供依据     

关于线性回归分析的实验设计

本文讨论了建立在实验设计基础上的回归分析方法,有效地改进了回归系数和误差的估计。     

双喷空气幕在隧道火灾中的应用

为了减小火灾中烟气给人员生命财产安全造成的危害,文章在分析空气幕射流特性的基础上,提出了一种新型的、更高效的双喷空气幕,并以某公路隧道为原型,采用理论分析和数值模拟相结合的方法,定性定量地分析了不同空气幕运行参数条件下的测点温度、CO浓度变化情况,进一步验证了运用流函数叠加法时得到的结论。     

双线隧道现场监控量测数据分析

武广客运专线金沙洲隧道属于浅埋双线隧道,围岩条件复杂,采用新奥法正台阶法施工。为了进一步修改和完善原设计,并有效地指导下阶段施工,对台阶法施工中现场监控量测的数据采取了分段处理分析,实践表明采用此法能更好的指导施工和准确预测极值。     

润扬大桥南接线高速公路超声-回弹砼强度专用检测曲线的建立与应用

本文通过实测的试验数据,利用回归分析的方法,阐述了超声-回弹测强曲线的方法和公式推导过程,建立了项目专用检测曲线,该曲线能更好地与工程实际相适应,能更好地推算本地区砼的实际强度。     

双车道二级公路纵坡段车辆运行速度预测模型

在分析双车道二级公路不同坡度、坡长纵坡的大量运行速度实测数据的基础上,得出车辆运行规律。通过研究纵断面要素(坡度、坡长)与车辆运行速度的关系,确定自变量参数后,利用SPSS软件进行回归分析,分别建立了小车上坡、大车上坡在坡中和坡顶以及小车下坡、大车下坡在坡中和坡底的运行速度预测模型,并对模型进行了检验。结果表明:车辆运行速度随坡度增加而减小,其变化的幅度受坡长影响;预测模型分别通过了回归等式的显著性检验、回归参数的显著性检验和回归等式应用准确度的检验,所有模型的相对预测误差平均值均小于5%,建立的回归模型精度满足要求。     

基于小波和SVR的红外弱小目标检测方法

在分析红外图像弱小目标特征和背景特征的基础上,提出了基于小波变换和支持向量回归（SVR）的自适应滤波的检测方法．该方法首先采用小波变换抑制大部分背景杂波;然后用基于SVR的自适应滤波器（SVRBAF）对高频小波系数进行处理,大大提高了图像的信噪比;最后,基于目标的连续性和运动轨迹的一致性,采用流水线结构的序列处理方法进一步提高检测性能．仿真结果表明：该方法可显著提高红外目标的检测概率,实现较远距离弱小目标的检测．     

后装拔出法检测混凝土强度地区曲线试验研究

为了加强后装拔出法检测技术在黑龙江省内的推广应用,对影响后装拔出法检测混凝土强度的因素进行了分析,采用了哈尔滨地区常用的材料,根据混凝土试件拔出力及抗压强度的测试数据,建立了哈尔滨地区后装拔出法检测混凝土强度的测强曲线。     

Examining the relationship between built environment and metro ridership at station-to-station level

Very few studies have examined the impact of built environment on urban rail transit ridership at the station-to-station (origin-destination) level. Moreover, most direct ridership models (DRMs) tend to involve simple a prior assumed linear or log-linear relationship in which the estimated parameters are assumed to hold across the entire data space of the explanatory variables. These models cannot detect any changes in the linear (or non-linear) effects across different values of the features of built environment on urban rail transit ridership, which possibly induces biased results and hides some non-negligible and detailed information. Based on these research gaps, this study develops a time-of-day origin-destination DRM that uses smart card data pertaining to the Nanjing metro system, China. It applies a gradient boosting regression trees model to provide a more refined data mining approach to investigate the non-linear associations between features of the built environment and station-to-station ridership. Data related to the built environment, station type, demographics, and travel impedance including a less used variable – detour, were collected and used in the analysis. The empirical results show that most independent variables are associated with station-to-station ridership in a discontinuous non-linear way, regardless of the time period. The built environment on the origin side has a larger effect on station-to-station ridership than the built environment on the destination side for the morning peak hours, while the opposite holds for the afternoon peak hours and night. The results also indicate that transfer times is more important variables than detour and route distance.     

Climate change modeling and the weather-related road accidents in Canada

The objective of this research is to study the impact of climate change on the hazardous weather-related road accidents in the New Brunswick, Canada. We develop an Exposure to Weather-Accident Severity (EWAS) index multiplying accident and weather severity. The Negative Binomial Regression and Poisson regression models are applied to estimate the spatial–temporal relationship between the EWAS index and weather-related explanatory variables of road accidents. The regression results show that the surface-weather condition, weather, driver’s gender, weather-driver’s age, weather-driver’s experience, and weather-vehicle’s age have strong positive correlation with the EWAS index, while the surface-road alignment and surface-road characteristics have negative relationship with the EWAS index. The climate change model also indicates that the number of accidents declines during snowy and freezing days—most people stay at home and those who travel extra cautious—accidents do occur. The study suggests that the Road Safety Strategy 2015 of the Transport Canada should take a holistic approach to help minimize the incidences of severe road accident during the normal as well as hazardous weather conditions.