沥青路面应力位移简化计算

为方便沥青路面结构设计生产、教学、科研之用， 本文采用分析综合法与分离变量法建立了弹性三层体系应力位移显式模型； 并在分析常见路面结构层厚度及其当量换算和模量变化范围的基础上， 成功求得了三层体系路表弯沉、上层滑动应力、上层连续应力、中层应力逼近公式；精度分析表明本文逼近公式精度很好， 完全可推广应用于多层体系， 满足工程设计和有关理论研究的需要．     

影响十堰市汽车保有量的因素分析

汽车保有量与社会经济发展水平有密切的关系,通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽车保有量和社会经济有关指标的函数关系,可以较为准确地预测十堰市短期内的汽车保有量。根据统计数据回归分析,影响十堰市汽车保有量的主要因素有:社会消费品零售总额、城镇居民可支配收入和社会固定资产投资。     

西安市公交客运量的回归分析预测研究

公交客运量的预测研究是非常重要的工作,根据西安市公交运量的相关数据,应用多元回归方法对西安市公交客运量进行预测分析,来确定未来某一时段的客运量,为西安公交网络规划提供决策依据。     

交通事件持续时间预测贝叶斯网方法研究

交通事件持续时间的预测是事件管理系统的重要组成部分,根据I-880实测数据集,利用逐步回归分析的方法确定事件持续时间的主要影响因素,分别建立了应用于事件持续时间预测的朴素贝叶斯(NB)模型、加树朴素贝叶斯(TAN)模型以及一般贝叶斯网(BN)模型,在分析数据特点的基础上确定了贝叶斯网的推理算法、参数学习以及结构学习方法.在不同数据缺失的程度和不同训练样本规模下,分别对三种模型的预测准确率进行了评价,结果表明贝叶斯网预测模型在数据缺失30%的情况下30min准确率高于80%.     

含水率对砖砌体抗剪强度的影响

通过含水率对砖砌体抗剪强度影响规律的试验,分别测出不同砖砌体试件整体含水率、砖的含水率和砂浆缝砂浆的含水率与抗剪强度之间的关系,得到砖砌体试件随浸泡时间含水率的变化规律,给出了考虑含水率的砖砌体抗剪强度计算公式.通过试验可以看出,含水率对砖砌体抗剪强度有着重要影响,有关规范中应予以考虑.     

河北北部山区通村公路土基回弹模量对路面设计的影响研究

通过对河北北部山区通村公路进行现场试验,由回归分析得到土基回弹模量与弯沉的关系式,并根据不同土基强度与不同标准轴载对路面厚度设计的影响,对土基强度进行分级,可作为路面设计的依据。     

交通流特征深度认知的车队运行参数优化方法

为提升车队对周围交通流环境的认知能力，获取车队周围多车的运行模式，同时通过改变车队运行参数实现车队群体对周围多车群体运行模式的诱导变化，为提升车队及交通流整体运行效率提供优化策略，提出了基于狄利克雷混和高斯过程的车队周围多车运行模式获取算法，将车队周围多车车辆的复杂运行模式视为混和高斯过程，利用狄利克雷分布作为高斯混和权重的先验分布，建立车队周围多车运行模式速度场，从而获取车队周围多车运行模式并分类；通过比较不同多车运行模式下车队的运行效率，提升车队对所处运行环境的认知能力。研究结果表明：利用非参数贝叶斯算法将复杂的多车运行状态进行分类，获取的车队周围多车运行模式可表现为对车队运行效率产生不同影响的速度场；通过将车队周围的多车运行仿真数据分成多个运行模式，可获取不同多车运行模式下车队及交通流整体运行特性；通过更改车队运行参数，观察不同多车运行模式的占比变化，可获取车队运行参数对所处运行环境改变的影响趋势；车队周围多车运行模式的获取，不仅可以提升车队对周围运行环境的认知能力，使得车队能够选取有利路径行驶，同时能够为车队运行策略的优化提供有效的信息。     

Lights,camera, legal action! The effectiveness of red light cameras on collisions in Los Angeles

This study estimates the effect of red light cameras (henceforth cameras) on collisions under the Los Angeles Automated Photo Enforcement Program that ran from 2006 to 2011. To control for selection bias and unobservables, a data set is constructed such that intersections with cameras are compared to control groups of nearby intersections without cameras, matched on observable characteristics. To capture potential spillover effects of cameras, control groups at various distances from the intersections with cameras are considered. A Poisson panel data model with random coefficients is applied to these data and estimated using Bayesian methods. The program suffered from weaknesses in enforcement. The city’s courts did not uphold citations and this dampened the effect cameras had on drivers. These problems are accounted for in modeling. Controlling for these concerns, results indicate that the cameras decreased red light running related collisions, but increased right-angle and injury collisions, as well as collisions overall.     

Findings from subjective evaluations and driver ratings of vehicle dynamics: steering and handling

This paper investigates subjective assessments (SA) of vehicle handling and steering feel tests, both numerical and verbal, to understand drivers’ use of judgement scales, rating tendencies and spread. Two different test methods are compared: a short multi-vehicle first-impression test with predefined-driving vs the standard extensive single-vehicle free-driving tests, both offering very similar results but with the former saving substantial testing time. Rating repeatability is evaluated by means of a blind test. Key SA questions are identified by numerical subjective assessment autocorrelations and by generating word clouds from the most used terms in verbal assessments, with both methods leading to similar key parameters. The results exposed in this paper enable better understanding of SA, allowing improving the overall subjective testing and evaluation process, and improving the data collection and analysis process needed before identifying correlations between SA and objective metrics.     

Safety modeling for two‐way left‐turn lanes and a procedure to identify two‐way left‐turn lane segments with safety concerns

In the past, two‐way left‐turn lane (TWLTL) median treatments have been frequently used in Florida to inexpensively improve traffic and safety performances. In order to identify factors that may have significant impacts on safety operations in TWLTL sections and to identify TWLTL locations that present existing and future safety concerns, a research project was carried out and results are summarized in the paper. In the research, a three‐year crash history database with crashes and section characteristics from a total of 1688 TWLTL sections all over Florida was developed and used. A negative binomial regression model was developed to determine the statistical relationship between the number of crashes per mile per year and several variables such as traffic volume, access density, posted speed, and number of lanes. In regard to the methodology, in order to identify locations with safety concerns, several steps are needed: development of real crash data distribution, determination of statistical distribution models that better represent the actual crash data, determination of percentile values for the average number of crashes, estimation of crash rates for sections with the same characteristics, estimation of critical values for the variables corresponding to the percentile values for average number of crashes, calculation of tables of critical average annual daily traffic values, and generation of a list of TWLTL locations with critical safety concerns. Results presented in the paper have been used in real applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.