Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

基于Java Web的旧桥加固优选方案开发设计

针对旧桥加固的指标体系不同的特点,使用JavaWeb技术开发系统,并采用瀑布型的开发方式实现系统开发。实践表明,使用JavaWeb开发系统具有很大的优势,尤其是其架构简单,易于扩展,所以系统的优化更加简便。     

Towards improved port capacity investment decisions under uncertainty: a real options approach

ABSTRACT

Port activity plays an important role in facilitating international trade. Sufficient capacity is indispensable for a port to attract flows to a region and retain them. The capacity decision is the result of a trade-off between investment and waiting costs. Traditional methods to value expansion projects do not deal adequately with managerial flexibility in the face of uncertainty from different sources in the complex port environment. In this paper, real options (RO) models are identified as an alternative method to making project valuations and investment decisions, as they attribute the correct value to managerial flexibility under uncertainty. In order to be able to build and use such RO models for port capacity investment decisions, the sources and implications of uncertainty in the port and the different RO model specifications need to be understood. To this end, both the literature about uncertainty in the port context and the literature about real options models are reviewed in order to provide researchers who want to build their own decision-making models, with the necessary knowledge of both fields. The review makes clear that the complex interactions in and competition between the logistics chains and their actors coming together in ports have significant impacts on port capacity. Uncertainty is also caused by uncertain international trade flows and changes in legislation following new technologies and environmental impacts. An analysis of the components of some general RO models shows how the options of flexible output, investment size and timing are valued by RO models in a setting with demand uncertainty. Moreover, the review presents researchers with insights in how to deal with cooperative and competitive interactions in the chain, time to build, cyclical markets and legislation changes. It also shows how to value the expansion and the phased investment options. The new insights resulting from this review are subsequently combined in a framework that serves as a guideline to build RO models for port capacity investments. Finally, an exemplifying application of the framework is used to build an actual port capacity investment decision model.     

Refining light rapid transit typology: a UK perspective

Abstract

Recent developments in the light rapid transit sector have introduced transit modes that are attempting to imitate the performance of others, e.g. buses with tram-like characteristics. The boundaries between existing definitions of what is a bus, tram or train are becoming blurred. For transport studies and practice this requires a review of how we define modes. This is not just a matter of semantics, but has safety and competition regulation implications for system operators. This paper proposes a structure to produce rail- and bus-based transit mode definitions and typology that are appropriate for modern use. A decision tree is used to classify and define the transit modes as guided-bus, trolley-bus, light rail and tram-train and is provided with example systems. The paper provides a robust definitional framework that allows transit system promoters, operators and other interested parties to have a consistent basis of reference when specifying and comparing rapid transit systems.     

导弹装备基于状态的维修理论研究

随着导弹装备的复杂化,传统的维修方式日益暴露弊端.基于状态的维修（CBM）在实践应用中日益显示其优越性和巨大的经济效益.论文分析了CBM的特点,阐述了CBM的实施条件,进一步分析了基于CBM的导弹装备维修流程.     

TO PS IS 法在优选联合火力打击方案中的运用磁

联合火力打击方案的选取需要综合考虑各方面的因素,TOPSIS法可以通过计算,对于各个作战方案进行优选和排序,为联合火力打击作战指挥员选择方案、定下作战决心提供理论支持。     

在资金预算不确定条件下路面维护和修复项目管理决策优化方法

一个得到良好开发和维护的路面管理系统（PMS）能够帮助管理者做出在什么时候,对哪些路段采用什么样的路面维护和修复方案的决定,从而实现可用资源的最大化.本文提出一种在资金预算不确定条件下路面维护和修复项目管理决策优化方法 (MPMRPBU),为确保管理者在一个决策规划时段内,从公路网中选择并优化一组路面维护和修复方案,建立随机线性规划模型求解MPMRPBU问题.通过案例分析,比较在确定性优化和随机规划两种不同条件下的优化方案,研究不同经济预算对优化方案的影响.结果表明,采用随机规划方法能产生高质量的MPMRPBU解决方案, 该算法可以解决实际问题.     

不同回收价格的闭环供应链收益分配问题研究

在构建的包含一个制造商和两个零售商的闭环供应链中,对两个零售商的回收价格加以区分,采用博弈论方法,分别基于零售商分散决策和集中决策的情境,分析供应链整体与节点企业的最优收益分配,并通过算例验证了研究结果.研究表明：两个零售商回收价格不同时,制造商的收益在零售商分散决策时优于零售商集中决策时,零售商的收益则受益于零售商的合作,并且闭环供应链的整体收益在市场容量较大时选择零售商分散决策较优,而在市场容量较小时选择零售商集中决策较优.     

Leave the expressway or not？ Impact of dynamic information

This study investigates drivers＇ diversion decision behavior under expressway variable message signs that provide travel time of both an expressway route and a local street route. Both a conventional cross-sectional logit model and a mixed logit model are developed to model drivers＇ response to travel time information. It is based on the data collected from a stated preference survey in Shanghai, China. The mixed logit model captures the heterogeneity in the value of ＂travel time＂ and ＂number of traffic lights＂ and accounts for correlations among repeated choices of the same respondent. Results show that travel time saving and driving experience serve as positive factors, while the number of traffic lights on the arterial road, expressway use frequency, being a middle-aged driver, and being a driver of an employer-provided car serve as negative factors in diversion. The mixed logit model obviously outperforms the cross-sectional model in dealing with repeated choices and capturing heterogeneity regarding the goodness-of-fit criterion. The significance of standard deviations of random coefficients for travel time and number of traffic lights evidences the existence of hetero- geneity in the driver population. The findings of this study have implications for future efforts in driver behaviormodeling and advanced traveler information system assessment.