Measuring the sustainability of marine fuels: A fuzzy group multi-criteria decision making approach

The use of alternative energy sources instead of HFO has been recognized as a promising way for reducing emissions from shipping and promoting the development of green shipping. However, it is usually difficult for the decision-making to select the best choice among multiple alternative marine fuels. In order to address this, a complete criteria system for sustainability assessment of alternative marine fuels was firstly established, and a fuzzy group multi-criteria decision making method has been developed to rank the alternative marine fuels by combining fuzzy logarithmic least squares and fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution). Fuzzy logarithmic least squares method has been employed to determine the weights of the criteria for sustainability assessment, and fuzzy TOPSIS was employed to determine the sustainability order of the alternatives. An illustrative case with three alternative marine fuels including methanol, LNG and hydrogen has been studied by the proposed method, and hydrogen has been recognized as the most sustainable scenario, follows by LNG, and methanol in the descending order. The results show that the proposed method is feasible for prioritizing the alternative marine fuels; it also has the ability to help the decision-makers to select the most sustainable option among multiple marine fuels.     

Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders

This article examines the evacuation behavior of residents in two South Carolina communities, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, during the 1996 hurricane season. Two hurricanes that approached South Carolina but hit in North Carolina allowed us to study the impact of repeated “false alarms”; (evacuations ordered based on expectations of a hurricane landfall that proved to be wrong). Differences in evacuation behavior, specific information and concerns prompting evacuation, and the reliability of information sources between hurricane events are examined to determine the impact of false alarms on the credibility of warning systems. Data were derived from a face‐to‐face survey of residents 2 weeks after Hurricane Fran in September 1996. We found that the role of official advisories was more limited than reported in previous research as people sought information on more diverse sets of concerns in their decision making. Reliance on the media and the Weather Channel, in particular, for storm characteristics and advisories was an important factor in evacuation decision making during both hurricane events. The perceived lack of reliability of gubernatorial warnings coupled with dependence on the media suggests that residents find other sources of information more personally relevant. Thus, while residents do not find that officials are “crying wolf,”; they are searching elsewhere for information to assess their own risk—what does it mean to me if there is a wolf? This increased attention toward individual differences in perceived threat may become more pronounced in future evacuations from hurricanes.     

A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one’s social network. In this paper a threshold model of social contagion, originally proposed in the network science literature, is presented to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision making process. Initiated by a single agent, the condition of a cascade when a portion of the population decides to evacuate has been derived from the model. Simulation models are also developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the initial seed on cascade propagation and the effect of previous time-steps considered by the agents and the strength of ties on average cascade size. Insights related to social influence include the significant role of mixing patterns among communities in the network and the role of the initial seed on cascade propagation. Specifically, faster propagation of warning is observed in community networks with greater inter-community connections.     

装备维修保障最佳路径决策算法

最佳保障路径的选择是装备维修保障决策的重要组成.该文通过对装备维修现状和未来需求,提出了一个全新的综合智能保障路径决策方法.首先完成了对装备维修的最短可能路径的计算,涉及的因素包括对方作战威力、双方兵力的活动设置和行动计划;然后通过Hopfield网完成了路径选优,得到了最佳的保障路径.     

公路工程决策设计阶段的造价控制分析

针对决策、设计阶段造价控制的作用及重要性进行概述,对其现状进行分析,提出加强造价控制的建议,旨在为我国公路工程造价控制提供理论参考。     

Decision support for simulating the car park activity in an urban area

Complexity of car park activity is reproduced from a concurrent execution of behaviour of various drivers. This paper presents a step in the development of a multimodal traffic simulator based on multi‐agent paradigm and designed as a decision aid tool as well as a video game. The user‐player has the opportunity to test different scenarios. We propose an approach for designing the decision‐making rules and the learning mechanism for a car driver agent. For that, a panel of methods such as stated preference modelling, Design Of Experiments and data fusion is used. Initial behavioural models, based on similar preferences, are developed for specified categories. Each agent will adapt its behaviour after executing its learning process. Our approach can be used in order to optimize needs of road network users and those of people in charge of traffic regulation. A demonstrator has been developed to test parking policies in an urban area as well as changes of car park characteristics.     

几类高阶非齐次微分方程解的增长性

研究了一类高阶非齐次微分方程 f ()k + A k -1()z f ()k -1 +  + A0()z f = Q()z ,其中 Aj()z 为有限级整函数,Q()z 为次数小于 n 的多项式,和另一类高阶非齐次微分方程 f ()k + h k -1()z eak -1z f ()k -1 +  + h1()z ea1z f ′+( A1()z ebz + A2()z edz f = Q()z ,其中hj()z ,Ai()z 为级小于1的整函数,Q()z 为次数小于 n 的多项式,在一定条件下,得到了方程解的级的精确估计.)     

基于模糊层次分析法的多人物流供货商选择模型

基于模糊集合理论提出了一个解决供货商选择问题的多人模糊层次分析法模型.首先运用模糊Delphi法和特征向量法形成上层准则的权重集合;然后结合以模糊语言变量表示的备选方案偏好等级的满意度和下层指标的模糊权重,通过分层结合,得到供货商的综合模糊评分;最后采用Fortemps和Roubens的面积补偿方法对各个方案的三角模糊数进行排序,从而得到供货商方案综合选择的优先顺序,为实际决策提供依据.实例说明了供货商多人模糊综合评价的具体过程及合理性和有效性.     

锚泊线的动力分析

本文应用频率域方法,研究波频运动引起低频慢荡阻尼力问题中锚泊线所引起的力。锚泊线所引起的阻尼,在本质上与其和运动间的初相位角有关。该相位信息需从频域分析得出。本文应用摄动理论推导了到二阶的锚泊线张力响应函数。算例以及与相应的时域的结果比较,可以看出应用频域摄动分析的结果在假设适用范围内与时域得到的结果基本相符。     

物流园区建设序列的多阶段多指标决策模型

针对物流园区建设序列问题的多阶段多指标决策和投资优化实质,本文以熵权和理想解法为基础,结合Delphi 法和0-1型整数规划,提出了一个物流园区建设序列的多阶段多指标决策模型,比较好地解决了物流园区建设序列决策中多阶段多指标评价问题和投资优化问题。