运营期公路边坡养护决策多层次分析方法研究

针对现有公路边坡养护指南中边坡安全状况分级标准模糊的特点,为科学制定边坡养护对策,提高运营期公路边坡养护质量,根据运营期公路边坡特点,在考虑了指标体系全面性、科学性和可操作性的基础上,建立了包含13项评价因子和4类分项评价对象的边坡安全性多层次评价模型,利用改进多层次分析方法确定了各层级评价指标的权重矩阵.改进多层次分...     

论民事证据合意

证据合意是现实生活中大量存在的现象,由于立法的空白和理论研究的不足,实践中存在诸多问题.本文探讨了证据合意的概念、法理基础、性质、构成要件以及在司法实践中应如何处理等问题,以期对完善立法、规范司法实践有所裨益.     

基于数据仓库的城轨客运营销决策支持系统

对建立城市轨道交通客运营销信息数据仓库系统的关键技术进行研究和探讨,提出客运营销数据仓库系统建设的必要性,分析系统数据仓库的主要特征、数据组织特点、决策数据对象及相关主题,采用信息包图技术对数据仓库进行设计.     

现代智能作战概念浅析

在分析智能武器、智能作战等概念的基础上,对现代智能作战的特征及其对战争的影响进行了归纳,通过对智能作战形式及其技术基础的分析,指出智能化对海战场作战的重要影响及意义,包括辅助决策、指挥控制以及训练推演等方面,并在如何应对智能作战的问题上给出了建议和思路。     

反舰导弹火力分配决策模型的构建及应用研究

反舰导弹是突击敌水面舰船的主要武器,如何根据上级意图和作战任务以及突击兵力所携带的反舰导弹数量,针对敌编队具体编成情况,合理分配导弹,争取最大战果,是在计划组织与实施反舰作战时必须解决的首要问题。在构建反舰导弹火力分配决策实用模型的基础上,利用计算机技术、面向对象程序设计方法,研制了反舰导弹火力分配决策软件。在构建模型时,提出了多种毁伤目标价值系数评估方法,它既适用于单兵种又适用于多兵种合同突击敌舰船编队的需要,可为不同型号反舰导弹提供火力分配决策方案。应用研究表明,该模型及其应用软件全面系统地反映了反舰导弹火力分配决策的基本规律,可为战术指挥员提供决策支持。     

基于数据仓库的船舶运输智能决策支持系统

为解决业务数据量的不断增加导致传统船舶运输决策支持系统难以满足实际要求的问题,提出了基于数据仓库的船舶运输智能决策支持系统。设计了具有基础数据层、分析管理层、决策功能层和交互层的四层体系结构,建立了船舶运输数据仓库,使用联机分析处理技术将大量的源数据转化为有用的信息,服务于决策过程,实现了定性与定量相结合的船舶运输决策支持。采用Fortran和VB两种语言混合编程技术实现了系统执行效率的优化。     

船舶绕避热带气旋安全-经济决策模型

为了同时对多个来源的热带气旋预报进行综合处理,对可供船舶选用的绕避方案从安全和经济效益两方面同时给予定量评价和分析,基于神经网络的多源热带气旋路径集成预报和未来风浪场确定技术、风险分析理论和模糊信息优化处理技术以及气象-经济决策理论等方面的最新研究成果,提出了一种可用于大洋中船舶绕避热带气旋方案选优的安全-经济决策模型。在对“天丽海”轮7个不同绕避热带气旋方案进行的模拟优选计算中,该模型能够根据决策者的具体要求,优选出效益最佳或效用最佳的绕航方案,得到的结论与多位具有丰富绕避热带气旋经验的船长分析的最佳绕航方案基本一致。     

基于模糊综合决策及Shannon熵的关键链缓冲确定方法

为了进一步推广关键链方法在项目管理中的运用,对关键链缓冲的设置问题进行了探讨．通过将模糊综合决策和Shannon熵的结合,综合了“专家”和“一线工人”两方面对项目的评价信息,使得所提的方法更具针对性．采用本方法可以使得关键链缓冲数量设置适当,能够较好地应对项目管理中的不确定性．最后,通过一个算例在MATLAB7．0平台上用正态分布模拟各活动的实际运行情况,说明了此方法的可行性及优越性．     

The changing role of decision support instruments in integrated infrastructure planning: lessons from the Sustainability Check

This article draws lessons about recent innovations in decision support for coping with challenges in integrated infrastructure planning strategies. After setting up a conceptual framework for the scope of analysis and the use of information in infrastructure planning, the empirical section explores the introduction of early-stage sustainability assessment tools. Data collection draws on experiences gained in the Netherlands with a new tool: ‘Sustainability Check’. We conclude that such instruments have a number of capacities that address the challenges of area-oriented planning: (a) bringing together information about the comprehensive value of alternatives, (b) facilitating the generation of alternatives, (c) addressing institutional fragmentation by learning about referential frames, and (d) adding contextual perspectives to the ‘hard’ outcomes of conventional tools. We also conclude that tools such as Sustainability Check should not be seen as a replacement for conventional decision support tools, but rather as complementary to them.     

Adaptation Pathways in Coastal Case Studies: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

Climate change adaptation presents a difficult challenge for coastal towns around the world, forcing local governments to plan for sea level rise in a contentious decision-making space. The concept of “adaptation pathways,” a diagnostic and analytical tool to assist in adaptive planning and decision-making, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. It provides decisionmakers a way to acknowledge the inter-temporal complexities and uncertainties associated with the novel dynamics of climate change and a mechanism to manage these challenges in the local context. In 2012, the Australian Government funded an 18-month program to provide decisionmakers in the coastal zone an opportunity to test the utility of the adaptation pathways concept for coastal climate adaptation. Using a selection of completed projects as case studies, we performed a document analysis to better understand the learnings from the projects. The main themes surrounded: (1) the utility of the adaptation pathway framework in developing options, (2) decision-making rationale and criteria, and (3) stakeholder participation in pathway development. A project participant survey was developed to further understand these themes. Our analysis reveals that “adaptation pathways” was generally framed narrowly and conservatively to emphasize extant economic, administrative and legal considerations over community, participatory, or exploratory ones. Although some case study projects were able to reach a point in the pathway discussion to actively involve stakeholders in their decision-making process, many case studies continued to build technical data as a method for defending policies and actions. These results indicate that coastal adaptation can take-up adaptation pathways as a useful concept for decision-making and planning; however, many councils may still require assistance in stakeholder communication processes in order to develop sociallyacceptable plans that take into account the full range of values affecting local coastal environments.