混合交通流参数之间关系模型标定

提出了混合交通流参数之间关系模型的标定和超车换道率的计算方法,采用广深高速公路、广佛高速公路和沪宁高速公路的实测数据对模型进行了验证,并计算了各数据点的超车换道率.结果表明,流量、密度数据的相关系数都接近1,超车换道率介于-1和1之间.     

交通事件持续时间预测贝叶斯网方法研究

交通事件持续时间的预测是事件管理系统的重要组成部分,根据I-880实测数据集,利用逐步回归分析的方法确定事件持续时间的主要影响因素,分别建立了应用于事件持续时间预测的朴素贝叶斯(NB)模型、加树朴素贝叶斯(TAN)模型以及一般贝叶斯网(BN)模型,在分析数据特点的基础上确定了贝叶斯网的推理算法、参数学习以及结构学习方法.在不同数据缺失的程度和不同训练样本规模下,分别对三种模型的预测准确率进行了评价,结果表明贝叶斯网预测模型在数据缺失30%的情况下30min准确率高于80%.     

液化蒸气爆炸——火球对人体的伤害评价

为了使操作及管理人员对液化蒸气爆炸所产生的火球对人体所造成的伤害有一个具体的评判标准,本文通过数学公式及计算,结合图表,将液化气体容量与伤害范围以及对人体的伤害程度联系起来。通过此评价方法,人们可以方便地了解到爆炸火球与人体伤害程度的关系,以求更好地避免人体伤亡。实验结果证明了该算法的有效性。     

从美国桥梁的最高通航设计水位谈起

对美国桥梁最高通航设计水位进行分析,并对我国最高通航设计水位的计算方法进行评议。     

船舶航行横向补给超越运动控制

为了保证舰船安全,进行航行横向补给运动控制时,需要充分考虑两船水动力干扰的影响。引入水动力干扰负载到船舶运动方程中,建立了两船航行横向补给运动数学模型,给出了运动控制算法。仿真结果表明,两船能够较好地保持期望的横向距离,从而保证了航行横向补给舰船的安全。     

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对交通事故持续时间分析的发展现状进行了综述．首先简要介绍了交通事故的定义，事故种类和交通事故管理系统，并分析了交通事故持续时间的统计分布．然后，对最近应用的几种主要的交通事故持续时间的分析方法及结论进行了概述．主要包括：方差分析，线性回归，非参数回归，决策树法，hazard duration method，模糊逻辑．主要的结论包括；大量的研究发现交通事故持续时间的分布形状是向左偏斜的钟型分布．交通事故数据采集标准化是事故分析中非常重要的环节．传统的统计分析方法处理不完整的数据有局限性．最后，本文提出了将来的发展方向，包括应用人工智能方法建立事故持续时间模型，及建立交通事故数据库标准．     

Motorway crash duration and its determinants: do durations vary across motorways?

Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems, which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard‐based models to develop in‐depth insights into how the crash‐specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland, and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, has been compared with random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data, and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway 1 exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared with the durations on motorway 2. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.     

城轨列车非站站停车及派生的越行问题研究

分析三种城市轨道交通列车非站站停车方案及其适用的客流特征,提出采用这些方案时判定列车是否越行及越行站设置数量、位置的条件与方法。阐明中间站设置越行线可以消除因列车越行或因列车进路干扰而引起的通过能力损失。