运用车流波动理论分析大货车混入对快速路车流的影响

随着城市对外交通需求的增加,大量大型货车进入快速路,大货车由于慢速引起后随车辆被迫减速,造成车流整体通行效率严重降低。运用车流波动理论确定大货车占道所引起车流的状态变化,定量分析大货车速度及其占道长度与堵塞时间、受阻车辆数之间的关系,从而说明大货车占道对车流延误的影响程度。通过定量分析明确划分大货车车道、快速路最低限速以及限制快速路大货车比例的重要性,从而为快速路混合车流管理提供依据。     

通航历时对沿海散货港区航道通过能力的影响分析

航道是整个港航生产作业系统的一部分,其通过能力影响因素众多,计算过程复杂。在分析众多因素的前提下,运用Arena仿真软件建立散货港区船舶进出港作业过程仿真模型。仿真结果表明:单线航道通过能力与船舶通航历时之间呈负指数分布关系,并且AWT/AST值越大,其负指数分布曲线拟合度越高;双线航道通过能力不受通航历时的影响。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

浅谈影响砂石路面扫浆保护层使用周期的因素及解决办法]

简述了砂石路面扫浆养护法并分析影响扫浆保护层使用周期的诸项因素及注意事项。     

Competing risks analysis on traffic accident duration time

Different clearance methods in traffic accident management lead to varied duration distributions. Apart from investigating the influence of various factors associated with accidents on the duration of such accidents using different clearance methods, this study also examines the cumulative incidence probability. We used traffic accident data obtained for 12 months from the Fourth Ring Expressway main line in Beijing to develop a subdistribution hazard regression model, which can assess the risk factors of two clearance methods. The regression results show that the different factors have statistically significant effects on the duration of two accident groups with different clearance methods; furthermore, opposite effects occur even for some factors that have a strong effect on both accident groups. For example, an accident involving a taxi extends the duration time with clearance method 1; in comparison, the accident is shorter with clearance method 2. The predicted cumulative incidence curves of the two types of clearance methods are shown as examples, with stratification based on the influence factors (taxi involved, season). Finally, the Gray test of the cumulative incidence functions and the log‐rank test of the Kaplan–Meier estimates of the survival functions are compared, in order to demonstrate the importance of using proper methods for analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于生存分析的山区双车道公路超车持续时间模型

为研究混合交通流条件下山区双车道公路超车行为，确定关键影响因素与超车持续时间的关系。以云南省典型山区双车道公路为例，利用无人机采集超车行为视频数据，提取参与超车行为的机动车轨迹，构建超车行为变量指标体系，分析山区双车道公路超车行为特性；建立基于生存分析的山区双车道公路超车持续时间模型，确定影响超车持续的关键协变量，并分析关键协变量与超车持续时间的定量关系。结果表明：混合交通流条件下，山区双车道公路平均超车持续时间为10.3 s，平均超车距离为201.3 m，由驾驶员的驾驶风格、较高的行驶速度及复杂的交通流条件共同作用所致；Log-logistic 加速失效时间模型对超车持续时间拟合效果最好，AIC和BIC分别为272.989和265.650，危险函数拐点约为13 s，说明超车行为在13 s前结束的可能性最大；影响超车持续时间的关键变量分别为超车距离和超车车辆与被超车车辆的初始速度差、最大横向距离、是否有对向车、被超车车辆长度和超车车辆类型，影响程度较大的协变量为超车车辆类型和是否有对向车，当超车车辆为货车时，超车持续时间增加了22.9%，当有对向车时，超车持续时间降低了17.8%。     

高速公路隧道临近段车辆换道持续时间生存分析

为研究高速公路隧道临近段车辆换道行为,提高隧道路段行车安全水平,在广东省的3条高速公路隧道临近路段开展自然驾驶试验,采集换道车辆的行车轨迹以及周围行车环境等数据。基于采集到的车辆换道数据,采用生存分析的全参数估计方法,考虑不同驾驶人换道风险感知水平的异质性,构建随机参数加速失效时间(AFT)模型,分析隧道临近段行车环境、车辆运行状态等潜在因素对车辆换道持续时间的影响。研究结果表明：相较于固定参数AFT模型,随机参数AFT模型具有更好的拟合优度;至隧道进口的距离、起始车道前车的车速差、换道方向和至目标车道前车距离会对高速公路隧道临近段车辆换道持续时间产生显著影响;车辆换道位置距离隧 道进口越近,至目标车道前车的距离越近,换道持续时间越短;相较于换道车辆车速大于起始车道前车的情况,换道车辆处于非跟驰状态和车速小于起始车道前车时,换道持续时间分别增加 7%和20%。研究结果可为高速公路隧道临近段交通安全设施改善和微观驾驶行为模型构建提供理论依据和方法指导。     

加强项目程序管理 提升公路建设质量

近年来，公路基础设施建设得到了快速、迅猛的发展，公路建设质量已经关系到经济发展、社会和谐、群众利益，以及行业兴衰。提升公路建设质量，还应在尊重科学，以科学发展为指导的前提下，从完善质量保证体系、加强合同管理、招投标管理、工期管理、安全管理、环节控制等多个方面来进行不断提高。     

基于模糊弧长的网络计划模型及其算法

考虑作业完成时间的模糊性，并运用网络理论和模糊数理论，构造了一种基于模糊弧长的网络计划模型，提出了求解该模型的模糊算法，并通过数值算例给出了其详细计算过程。     

Lessons from bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping Company in chartering

This paper aims to analyze the charter contract management of major container shipping companies in response to fluctuations in shipping market conditions in terms of contract duration using data of containerships between 2010 and 2016. Duration analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between charter duration and shipping market conditions. Moreover, this paper explores the causes of Hanjin Shipping Company’s bankruptcy, drawing managerial implications. Test results from Cox PH (Proportional Hazard) model show that most container shipping companies in Europe having net earnings purchased large vessels instead of chartering vessels, while some ocean carriers featuring poor financial performance, in particular the Hanjin Shipping Company, chartered bigger ships with higher charter rates and longer duration. Contract charter rates and duration of Hanjin Shipping Company featured greater risk compared to competitors.