盾尾密封刷实验平台的设计与研究

为判断盾尾刷的质量,从盾尾刷的耐磨性和弹性2个关键性能参数入手,运用液压原理、PLC及运算放大控制原理,通过对动力参数和控制系统的详细研究,设计出一台套用于检测盾尾刷耐磨性和弹性的实验平台,用于优选盾尾刷,提高施工安全性。     

急滩消滩指标的分析与运用

急滩是山区通航河流主要碍航滩险,其消滩指标是急滩整治设计依据的技术性指标,是急滩研究的重点内容之一。分析了将急滩坡流消滩指标合二为一形成综合消滩指标的应用方便性和可行性,指出了综合指标及其理论判式结构复杂、难以实际应用的特点,给出了综合指标及其简化的基本判式。基于实际情况,提出了综合指标还存在一般抛物线、直线或折线型等精度更高的判式,且指明了这些判式明确的数学意义,指出了"搭跳"上滩过河区的消滩指标应区别对待,宜根据实际情况灵活运用。     

多哈新港挖入式港池深井降水效果分析及参数优化

挖入式港池基坑止降水对基坑的稳定性和安全性具有重要的影响。依托卡塔尔多哈新港项目,通过对该挖入式港池深井降水效果进行数值模拟,对地下水流向和井间距、井深及井径等参数进行优化。     

基于BOOST船用柴油机热工故障仿真研究

利用BOOST仿真软件,建立电控化改造后的4190型柴油机工作过程数学模型。该模型的燃烧放热模块采用MCC燃烧模型,传热模块选用Woschni 1978模型,并用该电控柴油机试验数据验证模型的可靠性。结果表明,仿真计算与实验值误差均在2%以内。在此基础上,结合中速电控柴油机的特点,对柴油机在额定工况下喷油定时故障、喷油器喷孔磨损、单缸停油、中冷器效率下降、压气机效率下降及排气阀关闭定时故障进行仿真计算,探索电控柴油机性能指标与热工参数对不同故障的变化规律,从而为船用中速电控柴油机故障监测、诊断提供可行的依据。     

神经网络算法在海底声源非线性特性的数学建模

基于声源探测及目标检测跟踪系统在海底开发领域中的应用越来越广泛,而由于海水温度的不平衡以及海面多经衰落等影响,声波信号在海底的传输呈现非线性特性。本文在研究海下声波传输特性的基础上,利用神经网络对海底声波传输模型进行数学描述,并利用参数阵来建立声波非线性模型,最后对算法进行仿真分析。     

Uncertainty quantification in vehicle dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a review of various works that highlight the importance of introducing the variability of the road-track/vehicle system into dynamic simulations as soon as this latter is meant to be predictive. The first section of the paper presents the Uncertainty Quantification, Verification and Validation method (UQ-VV). This latter proposes tools to model uncertainties, to associate a confidence to the prediction of quantities of interest and to estimate the probability of occurrence of different scenarios. The method is illustrated by various examples mainly from the rail domain but also from the road sector. The second section summarises application examples of predictive modelling, robust optimisation and calibration.     

提升机料斗避免粘料设计方法

针对斗式提升机料斗底部易黏结黏性物料的现象，对黏结积料进行动力学分析．建立起黏结积料在卸料过程中能自动脱离料斗的驱动滚筒、料斗和提升物料之间参数的约束关系。为克服直接利用多元非线性优化方法难以得到最优参数的缺陷，结合工程特点给出了简洁的参数确定方法。     

Verification of pneumatic railway brake models

The article presents a survey of diverse methods for validation of pneumatic train brake modelling. Various experimental measurements of railway pneumatic brakes were made chiefly on a test stand at Poznań University of Technology; other test stands and some results have been taken from the literature. The measurements, some of them unconventional, were performed on separate pneumatic elements, brake devices, the brake pipe and fragments thereof. Mechanical devices were also included. The experimental measurement results were used for the verification of numerical models and for the determination of parameters. The latter was partially performed using an optimisation method.     

Bayesian calibration of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical models and benefits for environmental management

Aquatic biogeochemical models have been an indispensable tool for addressing pressing environmental issues, e.g., understanding oceanic response to climate change, elucidation of the interplay between plankton dynamics and atmospheric CO₂ levels, and examination of alternative management schemes for eutrophication control. Their ability to form the scientific basis for environmental management decisions can be undermined by the underlying structural and parametric uncertainty. In this study, we outline how we can attain realistic predictive links between management actions and ecosystem response through a probabilistic framework that accommodates rigorous uncertainty analysis of a variety of error sources, i.e., measurement error, parameter uncertainty, discrepancy between model and natural system. Because model uncertainty analysis essentially aims to quantify the joint probability distribution of model parameters and to make inference about this distribution, we believe that the iterative nature of Bayes' Theorem is a logical means to incorporate existing knowledge and update the joint distribution as new information becomes available. The statistical methodology begins with the characterization of parameter uncertainty in the form of probability distributions, then water quality data are used to update the distributions, and yield posterior parameter estimates along with predictive uncertainty bounds. Our illustration is based on a six state variable (nitrate, ammonium, dissolved organic nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacteria) ecological model developed for gaining insight into the mechanisms that drive plankton dynamics in a coastal embayment; the Gulf of Gera, Island of Lesvos, Greece. The lack of analytical expressions for the posterior parameter distributions was overcome using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations; a convenient way to obtain representative samples of parameter values. The Bayesian calibration resulted in realistic reproduction of the key temporal patterns of the system, offered insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs, and also allowed the quantification of the dependence structure among the parameter estimates. Finally, our study uses two synthetic datasets to examine the ability of the updated model to provide estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest.     

出口非洲的C45—SDN型敞车研制

阐述了C45-SDN型敞车的主要特点、技术参数、主要结构及试验情况。