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51.
52.
We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated
preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost,
travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional
requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present.
The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification
searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective
value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the
specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining
the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion,
in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage
than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service. 相似文献
53.
In this work, laboratory experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the effect of feedback on decision-making under uncertainty,
with and without provided information about travel times. We discuss the prediction of travelers’ response to uncertainty
in two route–choice situations. In the first situation travelers are faced with a route–choice problem in which travel times
are uncertain but some external information about routes’ travel times is provided. The second situation takes place in a
more uncertain environment in which external information about travel times is not provided, and the travelers’ only source
of information is their own experience. Experimental results are in conflict with the paradigm about traveler information
systems: As a consequence of information, the propensity of travelers to minimize expected travel time is not necessarily
increased. Providing travelers with static information about expected travel times reveals an increase in the heterogeneity
of travelers’ choices and reduces the maximization rate. 相似文献
54.
Mixed Logit模型及其在交通方式分担中的应用研究 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
离散选择模型的典型代表Logit模型简洁易用的特点使其在经济、交通等领域得到了广泛的应用,但同时Logit模型的两个重要缺陷限制了其应用范围。在分析了Logit模型固有的两个缺陷和Mixed Logit模型的良好性质后,比较了Logit模型与Mixed Logit模型的差异,对Mixed Logit模型的算法进行了研究,并借助SAS统计软件提供的仿真算法给出了详细的工程实践应用范例。结果表明,Mixed Logit模型有着更丰富的物理含义,对个人出行交通方式选择行为的描述更符合实际。 相似文献
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This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general
structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model
system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto
allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos
to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment
of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual
and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops
and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment
of stops to tours.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2012,50(10):1495-1514
Dither generated by rolling contact of wheel and rail smoothes dry friction damping provided by the primary suspension dampers of freight wagons and it should be taken into account in numerical simulations. But numerically the problem is non-smooth and this leads to long execution time during simulation, especially when the vehicle with friction dampers is modelled in the environment of an multi-body system simulation program, whose solver has to cope with many strong non-linearities. The other difficulty is the necessity of handling within the code a number of big volume files of recorded dither sampled with high frequency. To avoid these difficulties, a substitute model of two-dimensional dry friction exposed to dither is proposed that does not need application of dither during simulation, but it behaves as if dither were applied. Due to this property of the model, the excitation of the vehicle model by track irregularities may be supplied as low-frequency input, which allows fast execution and, the necessity of handling high-volume files of recorded dither is avoided. The substitute model is numerically effective. To identify parameters of the substitute model, a pre-processing employing a sample of the realistic dither is carried-out on a simple two-degrees-of-freedom system. The substitute model is anisotropic, describing anisotropic properties of the two-dimensional friction arising in the presence of one-dimensional dither. The model may be applied in other branches of engineering, for example, in mechatronics and robotics, where application of dither may improve the accuracy of positioning devices. 相似文献
60.
Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future. 相似文献