公路客运量预测的神经网络组合模型

针对公路客运量预测的问题,基于常用预测方法的研究,提出BP神经网络组合预测模型.结合河南省客运量运输情况,对组合预测模型进行了验证.实验结果表明,该方法对公路客运量的预测很有效.     

浅谈远程职业教育模式

随着社会的发展,社会分工的细化和人才的需要,远程职业教育的重要性愈加体现,其作为远程教育体系结构中的薄弱环节将会被大力发展。该文就远程职业教育的服务对象、教学实施和质量控制等问题阐述了一定的观点。     

一种顾及多因素影响的公路客运量预测模型

提出采用双线性模型预测公路客运量。预测模型包含时序自回归项、线性回归项和双线性项三部分。为了研究模型参数的时变特性,将公路客运量预测分为模型参数的预测和在此基础上的客运量预测,采用多层递阶方法计算模型的时变参数,然后进一步分析拟合参数的变化曲线,计算后续时段的参数预测值,并以此进行公路客运量预测。实例分析表明,双线性动态预测模型能很好地反映公路客运量的发展特性,具有较高的预测精度和实用价值。     

省级公路客运综合信息平台的构建

信息技术的发展为公路运输业对社会提供优质服务创造了条件，建立公路客运综合信息平台不仅技术上可行，也有其必要性。通过分析公路客运信息化的现状，研究并设计了客运综合信息平台的系统结构、系统功能和系统目标，并对系统的实施和前景进行了探讨。     

燃料电池轿车车内噪声特性试验分析

在半自由场消声室内四轮转毂试验台上对燃料电池轿车进行了声振特性测试,采集了不同车速工况下车内噪声信号及运动部件的振动加速度信号。分析了不同车速工况下车内噪声的分布状况及主要频率成分。通过信号分析表明,车内噪声来源于驱动电机总成和燃料电池系统中的氢泵、风机,产生的噪声通过空气直接传到车内,同时引起车身板件振动并向车内辐射噪声。根据样车的结构特点提出了减振降噪措施。     

秦岭终南山公路隧道火灾救援技术研究

针对目前国内外长大隧道火灾救援这一前沿问题,从隧道火灾救援的组织规划、火灾情况下的消防系统、火灾情况下的通风组织、火灾情况下的行车组织等4个方面进行了分析和研究,结合秦岭终南山公路隧道的特点,制定出了切实可行的救援组织实施流程、安全可靠的消防系统、最有利的通风风速和风流方向,以及快速逃离火灾现场的行车方式。     

城市客运交通走廊判定方法研究

如何正确判定城市客运交通走廊是进行城市大运量客运交通方式规划首先需要解决的问题。通过分析城市客运交通走廊对交通源和交通方式的集聚效应特点,提出采用效应场和场中介质的概念来模拟交通走廊对交通流和交通源的吸引作用。应用衰减函数或磁感函数作为效应场函数模拟分析城市客运交通走廊对附近范围产生的集聚效应,采用人口密度、出行生成密度或潜力密度作为介质函数来表现走廊附近范围的土地利用形态,提出了一种直接根据用地来确定城市客运交通走廊的方法。     

Planning and Evaluation of Passenger Ferry Service in Hong Kong

A predominant observation in Hong Kong is the continuous loss in ferry patronage. There are two main reasons for this: poor level-of-service and better competitors. New roads, bridges, and tunnels are serving the buses, and to some extent the railways; whereas the investment in ferry terminals is relatively at a lower level. On the one hand, there is no need to promote the ferries in a free market environment; but on the other hand, the ferries have the best safety record, can only relieve some traffic congestion and need water access that is one of the characteristics of Hong Kong. The goal of this paper is to design a planning approach combined with an evaluation procedure on how to make the best use of the existing water and pier resources in Hong Kong through the provision of commercially viable ferry services. The approach used covers the impact of future developments planning up to 2006 comprising all public transport modes in Hong Kong (heavy rail, metro, bus, and ferry). The planning tool is based on a newly developed multi-objective evaluation method in order to assess the ferry routes with scientific, practical, and simplified analyses for future use. This assessment is applied to the existing ferry routes and candidate routes and can also be carried out on an individual route basis or on a given set of routes. The objective functions set forth analytically in the evaluation method take into account the interests of the three participants: the passengers, the operators and the government. The proposed ferry network design formulation and the suggested new ferry routes will have a positive impact on changing the ferry system’s image in Hong Kong.     

内燃机泄放失效机油存在的问题及解决方法

指出了内燃机油底壳上放油螺丝在使用中存在的问题 ,分析由此而引起的后果 ,提出了排放失效机油过程中所需达到的要求 ,介绍了内燃机机油专用放油阀门     

Elasticities for taxicab fares and service availability

This study utilizes a unique dataset from New York City to examine the effects of taxi fare increases on trip demand and the availability of taxi service. The elasticity of trip demand with respect to fares is estimated to be –0.22; the elasticity of service availability with respect to the taxi fare is 0.28; and the elasticity of service availability with respect to total supply of service is near 1.0. These results have important implications for taxi regulatory decisions. First, fare increases do substantially increase industry revenues but at a lesser rate than the percentage increase in the fare. The implication for policy-makers is that fare elasticities must be carefully considered to obtain desired improvements in drivers' earnings. Second, service availability -- an important aspect of service quality that is generally overlooked during fare policy debates -- should be a central consideration in fare setting, given the considerable impact of fares on availability. Finally, where the supply of cabs needs to be expanded, the number of cabs can be significantly increased without harming the revenue stream of existing operators. This finding alleviates a major industry objection to issuing additional taxicab licenses.