考虑有限理性和公平性的危险品运输网络优化

针对含有风险控制的危险品运输网络优化问题,讨论了运输商的有限理性路径选择行为对运输风险的影响。基于鲁棒优化的方法构建了双层规划模型,通过增加各路段最大风险值的上界约束来实现不同路段之间运输风险分布的公平性,上层规划表示政府部门通过关闭部分路段来最小化最大运输网络总风险、路段最大风险的上界值以及路段关闭总数;下层规划表示有限理性的运输商在考虑感知偏差的情形下选择总成本最小的运输路径。考虑到传统启发式算法容易陷入局部最优解,通过重新定义上下层问题,设计了割平面算法求解该模型,并给出了算例分析。结果表明：虽然有限理性运输商的总成本增加了3.5%,但危险品运输网络的最大总风险下降了约8.4%;通过改变政府部门对各目标的关注度,可以影响有限理性运输商的路径选择行为,使得方差系数和基尼系数分别下降了约36.1%和26.2%,实现了不同路段之间风险分布的公平性目标;在实施车辆限行策略的情形下,针对有限理性运输商的感知偏差进行灵敏度分析,发现运输网络最大总风险的最小值不会改变,但会对路段关闭总数产生影响。在考虑运输商为有限理性决策者的情形下,可为政府部门设计更加符合实际情况的危险品运输网络,从而有效降低运输风险。     

基于Rankine源法的小水线面双体科考船耐波性预报

采用基于三维时域Rankine源方法的水动力分析软件Wasim,对某小水线面双体科考船在不同航速、不同海况与不同浪向下的耐波性进行了计算与分析,重点对不同工况下小水线面双体船横摇、纵摇和垂荡性能进行了研究.研究表明:无航速时,横摇有义单幅值极大值出现在90°浪向,纵摇极大值出现在0°与180°浪向;较高航速时,横摇响应最大单幅值出现在60°与90°浪向,纵摇在30°,150°和180°浪向时明显较大;波浪对连接桥的砰击会显著影响SWATH船的运动响应,使垂荡运动幅值显著增大;随航速的提高,顺浪航行下纵摇运动幅值逐渐减小.     

Errors in dynamical fields inferred from oceanographic cruise data: Part II. The impact of the lack of synopticity

Diagnostic studies of ocean dynamics based on the analysis of oceanographic cruise data are usually quite sensitive to observation errors, to the station distribution and to the synopticity of the sampling. The first two sources have been evaluated in the Part I of this work. Here we evaluate synopticity errors for different sampling strategies applied to simulated unstable baroclinic waves. As suggested in previous studies, downstream and upstream cross-front samplings produce larger errors than along-front samplings. In our particular case study, the along-front sampling results in fractional errors (rms error divided by the standard deviation of the field) of about 15% for dynamic height and more than 50% for relative vorticity and vertical velocity. These values are significantly higher than those obtained in Part I for typical observation errors and sampling limitations (about 6% for dynamic height and between 15 and 30% for geostrophic vorticity and vertical velocity).We also propose and test two methods aimed at reducing the impact of the lack of synopticity. The first one corrects the observations using the quasi-geostrophic tendency equation. The second method combines the relocation of stations (based on a system velocity) and the correction of observations (through the estimation of a growth rate). For the fields simulated in this work, the second method gives better results than the first, being able to eliminate practically all synopticity errors in the case of the along-front sampling. In practice, the error reduction is likely to be less effective, since actual fields cannot be expected to have a system velocity as homogeneous as for the single-mode waves simulated in this work.     

面向弱势道路使用者的多目标运动轨迹预测方法

针对复杂行驶环境下弱势道路使用者（VRU）多目标轨迹预测方法存在的预测精度不足和预测性能不稳定的问题，提出一种基于历史序列信息的面向VRU的多目标轨迹预测方法（Vulnerable Road User Trajectory Predictor， VRU_TP）。首先，为了解决预测精度不足的难题，该轨迹预测方法框架融合时空的多维运动状态特征和多维外观语义特征因子，同时基于外观特征综合考虑目标的运动意图，提取多线索的轨迹预测因子作为各个VRU目标历史轨迹的编码输入。其次，为了克服现有方法预测性能不稳定的难题，在序列到序列的编解码器方法（Seq2Seq Encoder-decoder）的基础上，从网络结构设计和网络优化策略等方面提出适用于VRU轨迹预测的门循环神经网络（GRU）。该网络融合设计的plelu6激活函数，能基于历史的序列信息映射学习未来的轨迹信息，用来提高编解码器对未来轨迹的解码能力。最后，为了验证时空多元轨迹线索和门循环神经网络优化方法的有效性和实用性，在已公开的MOT16数据库和提出的VRU-Track数据库上，采用在图像空间上通用的归一化平均位置偏移（NADE）、平均重叠率分值（AOS）评价指标以及平均成功率（ASR）和成功率曲线（Success Plot）评价指标，并进行试验验证。研究结果表明：在MOT16划分的验证集中，相比于基准方法，NADE下降了19.4%，ASR提高了22.6%；在VRU-Track数据库测试集中，NADE下降了23.0%，AOS提高了17.1%，ASR提高了16.5%；提出的VRU_TP方法减少了预测值与真值之间的位置偏移，增加了预测值与真值的重叠率，提升了各类VRU目标轨迹预测的性能，而验证了该方法的有效性。     

Glacial ice impacts: Part I: Wave-driven motion and small glacial ice feature impacts

Glacial ice features in the northern and central Barents Sea may threaten ships and offshore structures. Particularly, small glacial ice features, which are difficult to detect and manage by concurrent technologies, are of concern. Additionally, small glacial ice features are more susceptible to wave-driven oscillatory motions, which increases their pre-impact kinetic energy and may damage ships and offshore structures. This paper is part of three related papers. An initial paper (Monteban et al., 2020) studied glacial ice features’ drift, size distribution and encounter frequencies with an offshore structure in the Barents Sea. The following two papers (Paper I and Paper II) further performed glacial ice impact studies, including impact motion analysis (Paper I) and structural damage assessment (Paper II). This paper (Paper I) studies the wave-driven motion of small glacial ice features and their subsequent impact with a given offshore structure. The aim here is to develop a numerical model that is capable of efficiently calculating the relative motion between the ice feature and structure and to sample a sufficient amount of impact events from which statistical information can be obtained. The statistical information entails the distributions of the impact location and associated impact velocities. Given the distributions of the impact velocities at different locations, we can quantify the kinetic energy for related impact scenarios for a further structural damage assessment in Paper II (Yu et al., 2020).In Paper I, a numerical model that separately calculates the wave-driven oscillatory motion and the mean drift motion of small glacial ice features is proposed, implemented and validated. Practical and fit-for-purpose hydrodynamic simplifications are made to simulate and sample sufficient impact events. The numerical model has been favourably validated against existing numerical results and experimental data. A case study is presented where a 10 m wide glacial ice feature is drifting under the influence of surface waves towards an offshore structure. The case study shows that if an impact happens, the overall impact location and impact velocity can be best fitted by the Normal and Weibull distributions, respectively. Additionally, the impact velocity increases with impact height. Moreover, the impact velocity increases and the impact range is more dispersed in a higher sea state. It is also important to notice that the approaches and methods proposed in this paper adhere to and reflect the general requirements stated in ISO19906 (2019) and NORSOK N-003 (2017) for estimating the design kinetic energy for glacial ice impacts.     

六自由度液压运动平台的分析与研究

针对目前舰船上运用广泛的多自由度运动结构设计周期长和成本高的问题,为了能更快更好地设计多自由度液压运动平台,采用虚拟仿真技术进行研究分析。以SolidWorks中建立六自由度液压平台模型为基础,通过SolidWorks与Matlab对该平台展开相应运动学仿真分析,对其负载指标、运动指标、机构运动姿态进行分析和计算,并在此基础上建立虚拟样机,验证该六自由度液压平台综合性能指标的正确性。最后通过对各指标进行误差分析,证明了设计模式的有效性,以此为依据研制出六自由度液压实验平台,为研制高精度运动模拟器打下良好的基础。     

一种新型水下平台的水平面运动控制

新型水下平台用于从水面布放设备至海底,或从海底回收至水面指定位置,其主要运动形式为垂向无动力下潜或上浮。为了克服垂向运动过程中来自水平方向洋流的扰动,需要对平台的水平位置和首向进行控制。针对平台水动力系数等模型参数难以计算,水平洋流未知、且水平推进系统布置特殊的特点,设计了不依赖于模型参数且具有全局稳定性的水平面运动控制系统,并应用Lagrange方法对推力分配进行了优化从而减小运动控制的总功耗。最后通过仿真对控制算法进行了验证。     

Calibration of response amplitude operators based on measurements of vessel motions and directional wave spectra

A vessel's response to waves is dependent on a large number of parameters, some of which are both frequency and direction dependent. To predict vessel response, these parameters are used to construct response amplitude operators (RAOs) that act as transfer functions between the directional wave spectra and the motion spectra of the vessel. In particular situations, however, vessel motions predicted using RAOs calculated with general-purpose radiation-diffraction codes and measured wave spectra are found to deviate from measured vessel responses. To address this problem, a methodology for calibrating RAOs based on measurements of the directional wave spectra and vessel motions is proposed. Use is made of a vector fitting method through which the frequency dependent hydrodynamic properties of the vessel can be approximated by a ratio of two polynomials, thus greatly reducing the number of parameters that need to be calibrated. The reduced set of parameters is subsequently related to previously identified causes of RAO inaccuracy in order to arrive at optimization algorithms for identifying more accurate RAOs from the measurements. It is shown that the RAOs can be improved with accuracy in situations where the discrepancies are caused by imprecise estimates for the vessel's radii of gyration, center of gravity, or viscous damping. When the discrepancies in the RAOs are related to the potential mass, damping and wave forces, however, the problem becomes highly non-convex and it is not possible to find a unique RAO that satisfies the data.     

信号平面布置图参数化设计软件的研究与开发

城市轨道交通正线室外信号平面布置图是编制后续信号系统图纸的基础。为提高信号平面布置图的设计效率和质量,调查分析全国各地城市轨道交通信号工程项目中平面布置图的不同设计要求,研究开发信号平面布置图参数化设计软件。该设计软件为设计人员提供简单易用的图形化交互式操作界面,无需安装AutoCAD环境即可实现DWG文件的创建和读写;通过参数化设计,将信号平面图的不同构成要素抽象定义为各种参数化模板,既可实现对不同的图形符号、设备编码规则等差异化设计要求的兼容,也为设计人员提供了快速设计信号平面布置图的设计构件;此外,其底层数据可支持电缆径路图、工程数量统计等扩展功能的开发。该软件已在多个城市轨道交通信号工程设计项目的应用,可满足不同设计要求,显著加快设计进度,减少人为差错。     

运用MICROSTATION-INROAD软件实现道路设计的方法研究

目前,在计算机辅助设计领域出现了许多公路选线设计软件,并在很多设计院所得到了不同程度的应用,工程设计与规划中基于地形图的三维虚拟技术越来越受到设计人员的重视.本文通过公路设计案例,对如何使用InRoads软件进行公路线路辅助设计进行了说明,其独特的组件设计能力,有效且准确的解决复杂的几何设计难题,可提供广泛的设计、分析...