浅谈概率论中数学期望的计算方法

本文介绍了用特征函数、条件数学期望、对称性等求解数学期望的方法,解法各具特色.     

乘性O—U噪声驱动下基因选择模型的定态性质

从乘性O—U噪声驱动下的基因选择模型出发,讨论了O—U噪声参数对模型定态性质的影响。数值计算结果表明O-U噪声的噪声强度比噪声关联时间对基因单倍体定态几率分布有更大影响,噪声的有色性有利于分离不同基因的单倍体。     

某软土地铁车站基坑纵向滑坡事故分析

狭长形地铁车站基坑在分层开挖过程中会形成临时纵向多级边坡。当挖方边坡位于软弱地层时,如果设计或施工不当将会面临基坑纵向失稳风险。针对某软土地铁深基坑纵向滑坡事故案例,在考虑参数变异性的基础上利用极限平衡法对坑内临时边坡展开调查分析,并从工程角度对土坡发生深层滑移破坏的原因进行探讨。调查结果表明： 第1级边坡的坡度是影响整体稳定性的关键因素,1∶1.75（V∶H）的施工坡度不能满足下卧软弱淤泥质土条件下该局部边坡的稳定性（失稳概率高达88.92%）,只有当坡度缓于1∶3时才能保证安全。为防止此类临时挖方边坡失稳,最后给出考虑土体强度参数变异性的最优边坡坡度。     

城市轨道交通走行轨上牵引电流值的分析

城市轨道交通一般采用直流牵引供电系统,走行轨上最大牵引电流及其持续时间会随着供电区间内牵引列车数的不同而异。本文运用数理统计的方法分析了城市轨道交通走行轨上各种牵引电流出现的概率及其持续的时间,并结合工程实例对走行轨上最大牵引电流的选择提出了建议。     

工程结构时变失效概率分析

用泊松脉冲随机过程模拟机车车辆荷载,考虑抗力随时间的变化,给出工程结构时变失效概率的计算公式。定性分析抗力衰减函数、荷载平均发生率和结构服役时间对失效概率的影响。结果表明,在其他因素确定的情况下,荷载发生频率的增大、结构服役时间的延长及抗力的衰减均会导致失效概率增加,其中抗力衰减引起结构失效概率的增加更明显。因此在服役过程中需对结构进行定期的检测维修,以确保其可靠性。     

物流统计及评价指标体系的构建

在竞争日益激烈的今天,无论是企业还是国家或地区,越来越依赖于高效、统一、反应快速的现代物流系统。本文试图从统计核算角度提出一些宏观统计指标,以衡量现代物流产业的成本效益,并构建了物流评价指标体系。最后,详述了物流服务的评价指标。     

铁路车站咽喉区进路排列优化方法

合理排列接发列车和调车作业进路是保证铁路车站行车安全和提高行车效率的重要内容,在车站接发列车和调车作业自动化、车站行车作业过程模拟等方面也有着十分重要的意义。本文从有利于后续作业进路排列的目的出发,按序列化逐项作业排列进路的规则,分别提出了铁路车站咽喉区最大平行进路和最大概率进路的紧侧优化方法,该方法简明快捷,对现场计算和理论研究均有指导意义。     

门座起重机运行打滑的可靠性验算

在研究门座起重机驱动轮压及其许用值的概率分布特性和干涉模型的基础上．导出不打滑事件概率的解析解，提出门座起重机运行打滑的可靠性验算方法和验算准则．所阐述的运行打滑可靠性验算方法，是对较为严格且难以满足要求的按最小驱动轮压进行打滑验算方法的修正，更符合门座起重机的实际工作情况．     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

机车统计助手的开发与应用

对机务统计工作中的细节进行逐一分析，以提高工作效率为目标，在保证与原有系统兼容的情况下，采用计算机系统集成的办法，以辅助分析或自动化办公来减少统计人员手工操作时间，从而提高机务统计工作效率。