Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

On Safety in Dismantling Temporary Strut of Super-large Tunnels with Double-layer Primary Support北大核心CSCD

More and more multiple-track tunnels and super-large section tunnels have been built, and disman- tling of temporary strut is a weak point of the whole structure during force transfer when the secondary lining is con- structed. It is significant to guarantee structure safety during dismantling of temporary strut. Little systematic re- search on safety in dismantling of temporary strut of the super-large section tunnel with double-layer primary support has been conducted, so the internal force and security of the two-layer primary support of the Xinkaotang tunnel were analyzed by a numerical analysis and site measurement, and it proves the effect of two-layer primary support on the safety during strut dismantling. The research results indicate that: (1) with constant support thickness and one-time longitudinal dismantling length, the safety factor of secondary primary support is larger than that of the first primary support, and the safety factor of the first primary support is larger than that of the single-layer primary support. Change range of safety factor for the first primary support is smaller than that of the single-layer primary support, and the safe factor for the single-layer primary support is smaller than that of the secondary primary support; (2) with the same support pattern, the safety factors increase firstly and then decrease with an increase of the onetime dismantling length. The calculated results of various cases show that the reasonable one-time dismantling length for this project is about 9 m. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

轴对称解对隧道衬砌水压力计算的适用性研究

文章根据渗流理论推导了隧道衬砌水压力的轴对称解,并利用数值分析方法研究了轴对称解对不同形状隧道断面与浅埋隧道的适用性.研究结果表明:轴对称解适用于非圆形隧道断面衬砌水压力的估算;隧道断面形状对衬砌水压力折减系数的影响较小,可以忽略不计,其影响大小主要由衬砌与围岩的渗透系数比值决定.对于浅埋低水头隧道,用轴对称解计算的毛洞流量Qm与数值解比较,其误差较大,最大误差为36.5％;但用来计算衬砌水压力p1以及衬砌后水流量Q1时,误差相对较小,最大误差为6.3％,特别是利用轴对称解得出的衬砌水压力值与利用数值解得出的衬砌水压力特征值最大误差仅为3.4％.     

基于ANSYS的旧水泥混凝土路面沥青加铺层应力状态研究

基于有限元软件ANSYS对设置应力吸收层的沥青加铺层进行仿真计算,分别研究了不同弹性模量和厚度的沥青加铺层和应力吸收层对路面结构层应力的影响。研究结果表明:在一定范围内,适当增加应力吸收层和沥青面层的厚度有利于改善路面的防裂效果,但过大的厚度对抑制反射裂缝作用很小,同时也会增加施工难度和造价等。综合施工、应力状态及造价等因素,本文给出的本项目应力吸收层厚度建议值为2.5cm。此外,计算结果表明:应力吸收层的弹性模量越小,其抑制反射裂缝的效果越好,但过小的弹性模量会降低路面整体强度,造成施工困难、易产生车辙等病害,给出的本项目应力吸收层弹性的建议值为500MPa.     

高桩码头评估的干扰能量法及与常规方法的对比

针对高桩码头的检测评估工作中缺少合理有效的评估方法和评估指标的问题,对结合干扰能量法的高桩码头结构评估指标进行研究。采用变分原理和最小势能原理,结合高桩码头的结构特点,建立基于干扰能量法的高桩码头结构整体安全评价的指标体系,并与现行规范进行对比。结果表明,此方法在评估局部构件的同时,还可定量给出结构的整体安全系数,能够反映不同构件对于整体安全性的贡献。     

隆林新洲养护站边坡稳定性分析

文章利用SLOPE／W模块,基于确定值方法和可靠度理论的极限平衡法．对隆林新洲养护站边坡在不采取支挡措施和采用锚索抗滑桩支挡措施情况下,如何保持边坡稳定性进行了对比分析。     

ZPW-2000A调谐区SVA阻抗值对调谐区品质因数的影响分析

ZPW-2000A无绝缘轨道电路调谐区由1型调谐单元、钢轨、空心线圈、2型调谐单元构成,本区段所连接的调谐单元显容性,钢轨、空心线圈和邻区段连接的调谐单元呈感性,这两部分形成并联谐振.分析普速铁路Z P W-2000A空心线圈S V A阻抗值对整体谐振电路的影响,提出调谐区小轨道电路品质因数的计算方法,通过提高调谐区品...     

发射型钹式换能器的研究

为分析低频钹式换能器的发射电压响应、辐射声功率、发射效率等性能参数,通过ANSYS有限元软件建立了发射换能器的轴对称模型,设计了不同结构参数的共振频率为2kHz左右发射型钹式换能器,从结构阻尼入手,通过仿真分析计算,得到换能器的带宽、品质因数等,比较了不同结构参数的换能器的各项性能,绘制了不同结构参数的发射电压响应曲线,为分析设计钹式换能器提供了理论依据。     

船舶绿色电源PEMFC及其性能影响因素分析

能源与环境制约了各国经济的持续发展,绿色船舶成为当前船舶行业的发展趋势,燃料电池作为绿色电源在船舶行业具有广阔的应用前景。燃料电池是一种多输入的电化学反应装置,影响因素较多。该文在验证了质子交换膜燃料电池(Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells,PEMFC)稳态建模正确性的基础上,通过稳态建模,利用MATLAB对影响PEMFC性能的各因素进行了分析讨论,并给出了各影响因素的影响大小。最后,在PEMFC的控制和设计上提出了一些指导性的建议。