New approaches to transportation forecasting models

In 1992, the Federal Highway Administration awarded small research contracts to four teams of transportation researchers to design alternative approaches for improving the urban travel demand forecasting process. The purpose of these contracts was to enable each research team to explain how transportation planning models could and should be improved to meet the new forecasting requirements brought on by recent legislation, to address the impacts of new transportation technology, and to exploit the travel behavior theories and methodologies that have developed over the past two decades.This paper presents a summary and synthesis of the ideas which emerged from the four research reports. Its purpose is to identify common themes suggested by several of the research teams, to point out what appear to be critical elements missing from some approaches, and to combine the best aspects of the four approaches into a research plan for improving the current generation of travel demand models.Abbreviations CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments - FHWA Federal Highway Administration - GIS Geographic Information System - IIA Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives - IT Information Technology - IVHS Intelligent Vehicle Highway System - SUE Stochastic User Equilibrium - TCM Transportation Control Measures - UTPS Urban Transportation Planning System - VMT Vehicle Miles of Travel The paper was prepared as a report for the Federal Highway Administration.     

混凝土复合掺合料火山灰活性与形貌研究

用锂盐渣、粉煤灰按比例复合作为一种新型的混凝土活性掺合料，对该复合掺合料的试验研究表明：锂盐渣掺量对复合掺合料的火山灰活性影响差别较大；对混凝土7d，28d和60d各龄期强度影响也较大。研究中采用了扫描电镜及X衍射等现代测试技术，并对该复合掺合料火山灰活性及复合掺合料水泥浆体水化初期和后期形貌特征进行了深入研究，得出复合掺合料中锂盐渣存在较佳掺量。     

基于地震活动性参数b值的地应力评估方法研究

在铁路选线的可行性研究阶段,当线路方案尚未确定时,不宜通过大规模的钻探查明地应力数值,而希望借鉴现有资料或经验公式对地应力状况有所把握。国内外已有研究表明,在反映地震震级与发生频率的幂律关系中,幂指数b值与地应力水平具有反相关关系,据此提出增加参数b,对水平主应力随埋深分布规律统计回归方程进行修正的方法。以川藏交通廊道地应力分析为例,绘制地震活动性参数b值的空间分布云图;基于研究区已有地应力实测数据,以埋深H和b值作为自变量,拟合得到地应力量值的评估模型,经检验,与目前仅采用埋深作为自变量的方法相比,评估精度明显提高。     

基于作业成本管理的企业内部经济责任制研究

阐述了建立基于作业成本管理的企业内部经济责任制的必要性及此经济责任制的特点、具体内容。     

人脐血CD_3AK细胞生物活性及抗瘤作用的实验研究

目的　应用抗CD3单克隆抗体(CD3McAb)和重组人白细胞介素- 2(rhIL- 2)共同诱导人脐血单个核细胞以制备CD3AK细胞,动态观察其体外增殖能力、杀伤活性、免疫表型变化及分泌细胞因子水平。方法　用台盼蓝活细胞计数计算细胞扩增倍数,MTT法测定细胞杀伤活性,间接免疫荧光法分析细胞免疫表型,ELISA双抗夹心法检测肿瘤坏死因子- α(TNF- α)、干扰素 -γ(IFN- γ)、白细胞介素 -6(IL- 6)的水平。结果　脐血CD3AK细胞在第2周增殖能力最强,增殖倍数为78.56;培养至第12天的脐血CD3AK细胞杀伤活性最高,并对多种靶细胞的杀伤作用显著;表型分析脐血CD3AK细胞属异质性细胞群,培养第7、14 天,群体中 CD3+、CD8+、CD25+、CD38+、CD16+及 CD56+ 细胞较培养前显著增加(P<0.01); CD3 AK细胞培养至第 3 天的上清中 TNF -α、IFN -γ、IL -6 水平明显升高。结论　脐血CD3AK细胞是一种具有广谱杀瘤活力且增殖活性强的免疫细胞。本研究为脐血 CD3 AK细胞的免疫治疗提供了实验和理论依据。     

卡托普利对系膜增殖型肾炎家兔系膜基质的影响

目的　探讨血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂卡托普利对系膜增殖型肾炎家兔系膜细胞增殖、系膜基质增多的影响及其机制。方法　将雄性日本大耳白兔 2 4只随机分成正常对照组、病理模型对照组和卡托普利治疗组。建立家兔系膜增殖型肾炎模型。双缩脲法测定卡托普利对系膜增殖型肾炎家兔 2 4h尿蛋白排泄量的影响 ;放免法测定血浆中内皮素 (ET 1)及降钙素基因相关肽 (CGRP)的水平 ;自动图像分析仪测定各组肾小球的定量指数、系膜基质指数 ;用免疫组化法观察肾组织增殖性细胞核抗原 (PCNA)表达。结果　与病理模型对照组相比 ,卡托普利治疗组家兔 2 4h尿蛋白排泄量明显下降 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,系膜面积显著减少 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,ET 1降低、CGRP升高 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,PCNA阳性细胞数减少 (P <0 .0 5 )。结论　卡托普利通过调节内皮素与降钙素基因相关肽病理性改变 ,减少系膜细胞的增殖及系膜基质的增多 ,对系膜增殖型肾炎家兔起到保护作用。     

基于时间地理学的居民活动空间测度方法研究

活动空间能够反映居民受到的时空制约以及移动自由度，对分析居民出行行为有重要研究意义.本文基于时间地理学理论，强调时间维度对个体活动空间的重要塑造作用，引入活动持续时间作为权重因子，构建了活动空间的时空重心测度模型，提出“偏移度”“扩展度”两个概念来量化个体活动空间，并与传统空间中心测度方法进行对比分析，最后，以昆明市居民调查数据进行实例验证.结果表明，活动空间是由时间和空间两大要素共同决定，当存在出行距离大于4 km以上，偏移度对空间测度的修正程度约为5%~15%，时间要素对活动空间的影响程度变得较为敏感.     

我国高校社会实践体系的问题与对策

大学生社会实践体系建设是增强大学生实践能力的重要举措。文章从现状出发分析了高校社会实践体系存在的主要问题，包括对社会实践活动定位不准，资金使用不规范，相关制度不完善等。在此基础上，分别从高校和学生这两个社会实践体系主体的角度出发，提出完善高校社会实践体系的建议。包括高校优化人员结构，建立健全相关制度，提高高校硬件水平，加强合作。学生努力学习科学文化知识，提高自身科学文化素质。     

An integrated analysis of workers’ physically active activity and active travel choice behavior

Using Texas add-on sample data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey, this study examines adult workers’ daily active choice decisions in the context of physical activity and attendant health benefits. The study looked at workers’ two choice behaviors: active activity and active travel. The first choice behavior, active activity, is developed as an ordered-response model based on the number of physically active recreational activities pursued during the workday. The second choice behavior, active travel, is developed as a binary-response model that examines workers’ active travel choices—whether or not the worker used any active mode of travel during the same workday. The study improves the understanding and knowledge of observed factors influencing workers’ physically active activity-travel behavior. The study also provides several observations regarding the role (and constraints) of employment in individuals’ active choices. Using a flexible copula modeling methodology, we explore the true correlation (or dependence) between the two behavior choices that could occur due to the presence of unobserved factors, suggesting a simultaneously low or simultaneously high propensity for being physically active across workers. The study findings suggest that transportation and public health policy makers can mutually benefit from encouraging workers to be physically active (from an activity and/or travel perspective). Overall, the study draws attention to the integrated nature of the public health and transportation fields, thereby providing a distinct view of active/inactive choice behavior. To our knowledge, this is the first study exploring a rich variety of components for workers’ active activity-travel behavior through a robust copula approach.     

大型活动散场交通流的时空消散规律

研究了大型活动散场时观众离开活动场所的客流规律,并在此基础上根据观众步行速度概率分布,确定了观众到达停车场的流量分布规律;结合停车场的空间分布和活动场所周边道路交通条件,得出活动场所周边道路各路段散场时段的交通流随时间变化的规律,从而建立了大型活动交通流时空消散模型;另外,结合某大型活动散场时段交通流调查结果,对该模型进行了应用示例和精度检验。结果表明:该模型预测结果的误差非常小,可为大型活动的交通组织管理方案的制定提供依据。