Modelling public transport on‐board congestion: comparing schedule‐based and agent‐based assignment approaches and their implications

Transit systems are subject to congestion that influences system performance and level of service. The evaluation of measures to relieve congestion requires models that can capture their network effects and passengers' adaptation. In particular, on‐board congestion leads to an increase of crowding discomfort and denied boarding and a decrease in service reliability. This study performs a systematic comparison of alternative approaches to modelling on‐board congestion in transit networks. In particular, the congestion‐related functionalities of a schedule‐based model and an agent‐based transit assignment model are investigated, by comparing VISUM and BusMezzo, respectively. The theoretical background, modelling principles and implementation details of the alternative models are examined and demonstrated by testing various operational scenarios for an example network. The results suggest that differences in modelling passenger arrival process, choice‐set generation and route choice model yield systematically different passenger loads. The schedule‐based model is insensitive to a uniform increase in demand or decrease in capacity when caused by either vehicle capacity or service frequency reduction. In contrast, nominal travel times increase in the agent‐based model as demand increases or capacity decreases. The marginal increase in travel time increases as the network becomes more saturated. Whilst none of the existing models capture the full range of congestion effects and related behavioural responses, existing models can support different planning decisions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic evacuation planning with pedestrian guidance and bus routing: a mixed integer programming model and heuristic solution

This paper presents a mathematical model to plan emergencies in a densely populated urban zone where a certain numbers of pedestrians depend on transit for evacuation. The proposed model features an integrated operational framework, which simultaneously guides evacuees through urban streets and crosswalks (referred to as “the pedestrian network”) to designated pickup points (e.g., bus stops), and routes a fleet of buses at different depots to those pick‐up points and transports evacuees to their destinations or safe places. In this level, the buses are routed through the so‐called “vehicular network.” An integrated mixed integer linear program that can effectively take into account the interactions between the aforementioned two networks is formulated to find the maximal evacuation efficiency in two networks. Because the large instances of the proposed model are mathematically difficult to solve to optimality, a two‐stage heuristic is developed to solve larger instances of the model. Results from hundreds of numerical examples analysis indicate that proposed heuristic works well in providing (near) optimal or feasibly good solutions for medium‐scale to large‐scale instances that may arise in real transit‐based evacuation situations in a much shorter amount of computational time compared with cplex (can find optimal/feasible solutions for only five instances within 3 hours of running). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transfer demand prediction for timed transfer coordination in public transport operational control

Timed transfer coordination in public transit reduces passenger transfer time by providing seamless interconnected transfers. The problem arises when a Receiving Vehicle (RV) arrives to the transfer stop before a Feeding Vehicle (FV) carrying transferring passengers. Timed transfer coordination in operational control dynamically decides whether a RV is held at the transfer stop to allow transfers, or departs as scheduled. While transfer demand is essential for implementing timed transfer coordination, this variable is generally not available in public transit because of the lack of passenger transfer plans. The problem of acquiring this variable in real‐time has also received limited attention in the related literature. This paper proposes a new method to dynamically predict the transfer demand. We anticipate the transferring probability from each individual passenger by examining historical travel itineraries. Three different types of models (simple analytical, statistical, and computation intelligence model) are developed to forecast the number of transferring passengers. Numerical experiments using observed Automatic Vehicle Location and Automatic Fare Collection data from South East Queensland, Australia show the accuracy and applicability of the proposed models in timed transfer coordination. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市公共交通系统通勤出行特征提取分析方法

公共交通出行者的出行特征是地铁及公交线网规划与运营优化的重要依据。基于多模式刷卡数据,提出城市公共交通系统出行链提取方法,利用存在换乘的出行链调查数据进行验证,提取成功率达 96.1%。基于出行者历史刷卡数据构建了多种机器学习分类器以识别通勤人群,经过精度比较,发现随机森林分类器效果最优,准确度达 99.96%。利用分类器和出行链提取方法,对北京市公共交通系统出行链结构、换乘特征等进行初步分析。该方法可以有效提取分析通勤人群出行特征,为公共交通系统方案的优化提供数据支持。     

金融保险市场失灵及政府行为

市场在其运行过程中会出现自身无法解决的问题，存在市场失灵现象。本文就目前我国企业保险市场的市场失灵问题，提出了政府可以在哪些方面有所作为及相应对策，从而解决或减轻市场的这种低效或无效行为。     

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分析了奥运交通客流及其组织的特点，介绍了历届奥运会交通组织的经验与教训；论文结合奥运交通的要求，简介了北京奥运期间城市交通规划的基本思想和实时设想；从公共交通发展计划、交通需求管理、交通组织的安全保障等方面提出了搞好奥运交通组织，确保实现“最出色奥运会”目标的具体措施。     

高校保卫组织公安体制改革之我见

本文从当前高校保卫公安体制改革的基础模式入手,详细地分析其改革模式及利弊,并以科学发展观为指导,从经济、政治、安全以及高校的特殊性等方面,论述了高校成立校园警察局的重要性和必要性,进而提出了某些合理化的建议。     

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国内各大中城市中，关于停车位置及泊位利用情况的信息提供相对比较缺乏，车辆因寻找停车场而增加盲目绕行距离，从而导致城市路网的交通压力增大.从提供公共信息服务的角度，进行停车诱导信息系统的设计.首先探讨系统的功能要求，之后建立其工作原理、软件体系以及算法设计，最后进行预测效果分析.     

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在“公共交通优先发展”已经成为共识的大背景下，各界都在努力探索如何实现这一理念。香港是世界上公共交通最为发达的地区之一，本文从几个方面介绍了其公共交通运营管理模式，希望对全国有学习和借鉴的价值。本文首先介绍了香港政府对铁路、巴士的监管机制，相关部门职责和监管方法，然后介绍了铁路和巴士的经营理念与运营模式，最后介绍了香港公交线网的制定原则和限制私家车的政策措施。     

主动式公交线网规划模式研究与实施

调查分析了苏州、湖州等城市公交的服务水平和居民对公交服务的要求，得到我国众多城市居民公交出行比例偏低的主要原因为：现状公交线网规划是基于城市道路网络基础设施建设上的被动适应性规划，导致了城市公交线网对居民出行起迄点的覆盖率的降低和居民公交出行的不便性．提出的主动式公交线网规划布局模式要求城市公交线网规划应以满足居民公交出行的需求为基础，通过优化布设城市的公交线网场站、实施公交优先通行措施等来提高居民公交出行的便捷性；城市总体规划、道路网络和道路交通基础设施规划建设等应适应并服务于城市公交线网的规划和布设．从城市道路网络布局结构、道路基础设施建设和公交优先通行措施等方面提出了主动式公交线网规划模式的实施流程．