大型机场地面集疏运需求预测方法研究

机场地面集疏运系统是机场发展的重要支撑，交通需求预测是进行机场集疏运交通规划的前提。笔者以四阶段预测的基本原理为基础，结合机场集疏运需求特点，对预测的整体思路、方法、步骤和内容等进行详细分析，优化调整出行分布、方式划分预测模型，并以南京禄口国际机场为实例进行了预测。研究成果对国内同类大型机场的集疏运需求预测具有借鉴和参考价值。     

Innovative systems for the transportation disadvantaged: Toward more efficient and operationally usable planning tools

When considering innovative forms of public transport for specific groups, such as demand responsive services, the challenge is to find a good balance between operational efficiency and 'user friendliness' of the scheduling algorithm even when specialized skills are not available. Regret insertion-based processes have shown their effectiveness in addressing this specific concern. We introduce a new class of hybrid regret measures to understand better why the behaviour of this kind of heuristic is superior to that of other insertion rules. Our analyses show the importance of keeping a good balance between short- and long-term strategies during the solution process. We also use this methodology to investigate the relationship between the number of vehicles needed and total distance covered - the key point of any cost analysis striving for greater efficiency. Against expectations, in most cases decreasing fleet size leads to savings in vehicle mileage, since the heuristic solution is still far from optimality.     

Port privatization under Cournot vs. Bertrand competition: a third-market approach

By incorporating port competition into a third-market model consisting of two exporting firms and one importing country, we demonstrate the endogenous choice of port structures (i.e. privatization or public ownership) under either Bertrand or Cournot competition. In contrast to previous studies on port competition, we analyze the port strategy in view of all trading countries (i.e. importing country and exporting countries). We find that regardless of transport cost, the port ownership strategy alters according to exporting firm’s competition mode. Under Bertrand competition, the choice of port ownership structure depends on the degree of imperfect substitutability. However, under Cournot competition, all trading countries choose same ownership structures of each port. By comparing equilibrium of each competition mode, we show that welfare of exporting country under Cournot competition is higher than under Bertrand competition if goods are sufficiently substitutes. In contrast, importing country prefers Bertrand competition to Cournot competition when the competitive pressure is sufficiently high.     

基于社交网络的民航旅客偏好建模

从社会网络的视角，提出了一种旅客个体偏好与关系偏好相结合的建模方法．首先，从旅客的历史出行记录中，构建基于共同出行关系的旅客社会网络；然后，构建旅客个体偏好模型和旅客关系偏好模型；最后，基于旅客偏好模型给旅客推荐座位．在民航领域的一个真实的数据集上进行了实验，证明本文提出的偏好模型能够有机地将旅客个体偏好与关系偏好结合起来，较好地描述旅客对航班座位的偏好．     

Driving to save time or saving time to drive? The enduring appeal of the private car

Use of the private car is often viewed as highly problematic. It is regularly associated with global physical, social and ecological harms such as climate change and the high incidence of lifestyle diseases, including heart disease. Attempts to address these problems generally include provision for day-to-day physical mobility based on alternatives to the private car. Labelled alternative transport, these modes include public transport, walking and cycling. Yet the private car continues as the preferred way to travel in many cities. A deeper understanding of this preference can reveal under explored sites of resistance to alternative transport modes.This paper contributes to these understandings by examining the role the car as a time saving device plays in sustaining automobility. Its central proposition is that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. The paper draws on empirical evidence on the journey to work in Australia’s largest city, Sydney. Using a systematic process of trip substitution analysis, a group of people were identified who could use alternative transport to get to work in the same amount of time it currently takes them to drive. These people then participated in a series of in-depth interviews where deeper attachments and motivations for private car use were explored.This approach has enabled development of the multi-layered understanding that informs the central proposition that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. Instead, automobility is sustained by appeals to flexibility and autonomy, as well as the interminable pull of the sensory experience provided by the cocoon of the car. This way of thinking about resistance to alternative transport exposes a series of inconsistencies between the expectations of those planning for, and those anticipated to one day use, alternative transport.     

对我国道路运输行业管理方针的探讨

面对我国道路运输业存在的诸多问题,指出了加强行业管理的重要性,并对道路运输业的经济本质进行了理论分析。尽管世界各国的道路运输行业都不具备自然垄断的形态,但文章仍然在我国首次提出了道路运输业属公用事业范畴的观点,这在一定程度上给出了我国道路运输业管制与放开争议的解决思路。根据我国道路运输行业所处的发展阶段和发展环境,提出了政府对道路运输行业的管理不仅不应消弱,相反应该大大加强的观点。对于竞争不完全的市场,政府的管制是至为必要的;仅强调开放运输市场只会增加竞争的无序和资源的浪费。文章认为今后相当时期对道路运输行业应实施适度管制的管理方针,而管制的重点在于运输市场的准入。     

克隆选择算法在一类有竞争的物流配送中心选址问题中的应用

根据有竞争的物流配送中心选址问题的特点,以新增物流配送中心获取最大的市场占有量为目标函数,建立了有竞争的物流配送中心选址问题的数学模型。由于建立的数学模型是一个高维、非线性、非凸性,并具有多个局部极值点的复杂函数优化问题,传统确定性优化算法很难求解得到问题的最优解或满意解。为此,提出将一种新型的启发式进化算法——克隆选择算法用于求解建立的数学模型,并详细描述了应用克隆选择算法求解数学模型的方法和步骤。仿真试验表明,克隆选择算法求解有竞争的物流配送中心选址问题是可行而有效的,并且具有收敛速度快、全局搜索能力强和稳定性好的优点。     

基于多层环路形态的上海中环路交通功能分析

借鉴多层环路系统已有研究成果．归纳其形成机理。结合上海市路网在中环浦西段建成前后流量对比．分析中环对于内环和外环的影响。并进一步依据环路功能划分．阐述上海市中环路所承担的主要功能。     

道路运输承运人责任险制度安排的民法学与社会学分析

从民法的立法精神出发，以道路运输承运人责任保险制度的颁布实施为研究对象，通过理论分析提出承运人责任险制度安排虽然是一种合同行为，体现了民事法律关系与法律救济原则，但其已突破了传统民法的“意思自治”私法范畴，折射了国家干预和“私法的公法化”的法理本质。同时以社会学的视野来看，承运人责任险险种从制度上化解了社会矛盾，维护了社会稳定，体现了风险规避与社会和谐意义。     

重载运输车侧向调平控制系统研究

结合虚拟样机技术和控制系统仿真技术对自行式重载运输车的自动调平系统进行了设计研究,建立了运输车横向半车多刚体动力学模型,并针对该模型设计了模糊控制器。联合仿真研究结果表明,模糊控制策略能对车架横向倾斜有很好的控制效果。调平精度达到0.17°,调节时间约为1.6s,能够满足调平系统高精度和快速度的要求。