Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

Autonomous vehicle control systems for safe crossroads

This article presents a cooperative manoeuvre among three dual mode cars – vehicles equipped with sensors and actuators, and that can be driven either manually or autonomously. One vehicle is driven autonomously and the other two are driven manually. The main objective is to test two decision algorithms for priority conflict resolution at intersections so that a vehicle autonomously driven can take their own decision about crossing an intersection mingling with manually driven cars without the need for infrastructure modifications. To do this, the system needs the position, speeds, and turning intentions of the rest of the cars involved in the manoeuvre. This information is acquired via communications, but other methods are also viable, such as artificial vision. The idea of the experiments was to adjust the speed of the manually driven vehicles to force a situation where all three vehicles arrive at an intersection at the same time.     

基于物元模型的公交智能调度方案评价方法

文章以物元模型为切入点,阐述了基于物元模型的公交智能化调度评价方法及算法,并通过对某高客流量线路的传统全程车调度、传统大站快车调度、公交智能化全程车调度三种调度方案的综合评价分析,验证了该方法的有效性。     

The melting Arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport

The shrinking of Arctic ice triggers off a new round of competition and dispute in this region, among traditional Arctic states and non-Arctic actors. Like its East Asia neighbours, China sees the melting Arctic Ocean a unique opportunity for itself and international trade generally. The changing physical landscape of the Arctic region will certainly have a major impact on China’s economic future which is very dependent on international shipping. This paper assesses the impact of the ice-free Arctic on the development of marine transport industry in China. The author discusses the potential new routes with the Arctic’s melting and the opportunities that it brings to China’s maritime transportation industry. Challenges that China faces in future shipping through the Arctic will be also addressed from political, legal, economic and environmental dimensions, followed by a preliminary exploration of ways to solution of these challenges.     

关于长江下游地区煤炭中转储运基地建设的思考

通过对长江下游地区江苏、上海等地煤炭产、运、销现状和发展趋势的分析,提出建设大型公共煤炭中转储运基地、整合长江下游地区港口煤炭码头资源,以提高该地区煤炭运输均衡性、经济性和安全保障能力的设想,并根据中转储运基地建设条件的分析和长江下游煤炭运输系统的论证,探讨煤炭中转储运基地的选址思路。     

汕头港广澳港区防波堤工程波浪输沙及对濠江河口影响研究

依据外海1 a期波浪观测资料,采用沿岸输沙公式及波浪数学模型方法对海湾内波浪沿岸输沙及岸线变形情况进行研究。计算结果表明,防波堤工程实施后,改变了濠江河口附近原有波浪动力条件和净输沙方向,西侧岬湾两头将发生淤积,岬湾中部发生侵蚀,约5 a后,岸线将会与河口西侧的两个小岛相连,形成连岛沙堤。     

弯曲分汊河段浅区成因研究

为解决弯曲分汊河段航道治理的关键问题,选取长江中游监利河段,采用调研与实测资料分析、理论研究、水槽概化模型试验等手段,给出了弯曲分汊河段水流脉动动能的分层平面等值线图,揭示了分流区浅滩形成的内在机理,给出了弯曲分汊河段沿程水流挟沙力变化情况。表明分流区底部水流的脉动动能比较分散,得出水流挟沙力在分流区最小,这也是分流区浅滩形成的原因之一。     

长江口南支下段扁担沙护滩工程整治效果分析

长江口南支下段暗沙罗列、州滩变迁,是长江口河势变化最为频繁、也最为复杂的河段.采用mike21平面二维水流、泥沙数学模型,对该河段自然状态下以及实施扁担沙护滩工程情况下水动力条件、河床冲淤变化进行模拟,为该河段河势演变以及河势控制工程的研究提供一定的参考.     

The implications of the re-establishment of direct links across the Taiwan Strait on the aviation industries in Greater China

This paper investigates the economic implications of the liberalization of air transportation across the Taiwan Strait to the region's aviation industries. Our analysis suggests that (1) liberalization has brought substantial benefits to airports and airlines in Mainland China and Taiwan. Negative impacts to Hong Kong are largely compensated by traffic increase in routes linking Mainland China. (2) In general, Taiwanese airports and airlines have benefited more from liberalization compared to airports and airlines on the mainland and Hong Kong. Such asymmetric effect is due to the larger size of the Mainland Chinese aviation market, which allows Taiwanese airlines to exploit network-related benefits. (3) Our investigation suggests that foreign hub carriers and medium sized Chinese airports will benefit most from China's future liberalizations.     

福建兴化湾近岸地貌特征与泥沙来源分析

在现场地貌调查及沉积物取样分析的基础上,对兴化湾的自然条件、沉积特征、泥沙来源及运移趋势进行了分析。判明石城岛以西水下沉积物以粘土质粉砂分布为主,泥沙粒径在0.01 mm左右,为河流下泄泥沙沉积为主。石城岛以东局部区域沉积物质为极粗砂,为近岸山体及浅滩冲蚀物质沉积为主。兴化湾的泥沙主要为河流输沙,其次是周边沿岸冲蚀入海物质及岬角岛礁受风浪侵蚀泥沙。由于湾外涨、落潮流路的稳定和潮流动力的强劲,湾内水深地形与潮流动力有很好的对应性和稳定性,泥沙运动仅限于湾内泥沙的再搬运。