Alternative fuels for transportation

The alternatives to the oil based fuels for transportation are considered and analysed. These are the synthetic fuels, made from coal, the liquid petroleum gases of propane and butane, compressed natural gas and methanol. The problems associated with the use of electric vehicles are discussed; the main problem being that of range.

The possible use of hydrogen as a fuel is analysed in some detail. Since its supply can be tied directly to nuclear energy sources, rather than hydrocarbon feed stocks, it could be an alternative in the long term. The main problems of the storage of hydrogen on the vehicle and of its propensity to “back‐fire” into the engine intake are discussed. The first can be ameliorated and the second eliminated by dual fuelling; with petrol. It is advocated that the on‐board storage of hydrogen be by the use of hydrides for private cars. However, it is expected that it may be as liquid hydrogen for some forms of transport and will certainly be in this form for aircraft.     

综合运输通道耗散结构分析

基于各种运输方式的技术经济特征和交通运输业可持续发展理念,借助于耗散结构理论,研究综合运输通道是一个具有耗散结构特性的开放系统。通过对综合运输通道结构的分析,实现综合运输通道内各种运输方式的协调发展,合理竞争;满足人们出行与货运需求;不断完善和提高各种运输方式适应环境的能力,实现通道内外的和谐可持续发展。     

高速公路客运发展研究

近年来,高速公路客运随着高速公路的快速增长而迅速发展,其拥有安全、快捷、舒适、优质服务等特点,但也面临着客运站建设落后、运力结构不合理、运力与运量不平衡等问题,研究高速公路客运的发展措施对于指导实际工作有一定的意义。     

A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

An integrated methodology for the design of mooring systems and risers

Traditionally, the design of mooring lines and risers of floating production systems (FPS) has been performed separately, by different teams, employing uncoupled analysis tools that do not consider the nonlinear interaction between the platform hull and the mooring lines and risers. Design processes have been focused on fulfilling the design criteria of the respective component (mooring/riser) alone, with few or no consideration to the other component, and little interaction between the design teams. Nowadays the importance of employing analysis tools based on coupled formulations is widely recognized, and analysis strategies have been proposed to consider feedback between mooring lines and risers within their respective design processes.In this context, this work details a proposal of one single and fully integrated design methodology for mooring systems and risers for deep-water FPS. In this methodology, the design stages of both risers and mooring lines are incorporated in a single spiral, allowing the full interaction of different teams; mooring design implicitly considers the riser integrity, and vice-versa, leading to gains in efficiency and cost reduction.Different analysis strategies are employed, taking advantage of uncoupled and coupled numerical models. The models generated at the initial/intermediate design stages can be reused in subsequent stages: simpler models are used in the initial stages, and more refined models are gradually introduced, to reach an ideal balance between computational cost and accuracy of results. In the advanced stages, the exchange of information between mooring/riser also allows the definition of criteria for the selection of governing/critical loading cases to be revised and verified in detail. This leads to the reduction of the original loading case matrix, allowing a feasible use of time-consuming fully coupled analysis.Results of a case study illustrating the application of some of the main processes of the methodology are included.     

The use of demand correlation in the modeling of air carrier departure delays as first‐order autoregressive random processes

A method for modeling air carrier departure delays at commercial‐service airports as autoregressive random processes is presented. This method employs the correlation of a priori demand data to significantly reduce prediction error in the optimal least‐squares estimator for additive white noise. The reduction factor of the prediction error is demonstrated to be on the order of 10² over that of the unbiased estimator. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

User perspectives in public transport timetable optimisation

The present paper deals with timetable optimisation from the perspective of minimising the waiting time experienced by passengers when transferring either to or from a bus. Due to its inherent complexity, this bi-level minimisation problem is extremely difficult to solve mathematically, since timetable optimisation is a non-linear non-convex mixed integer problem, with passenger flows defined by the route choice model, whereas the route choice model is a non-linear non-continuous mapping of the timetable. Therefore, a heuristic solution approach is developed in this paper, based on the idea of varying and optimising the offset of the bus lines. Varying the offset for a bus line impacts the waiting time passengers experience at any transfer stop on the bus line.In the bi-level timetable optimisation problem, the lower level is a transit assignment calculation yielding passengers’ route choice. This is used as weight when minimising waiting time by applying a Tabu Search algorithm to adapt the offset values for bus lines. The updated timetable then serves as input in the following transit assignment calculation. The process continues until convergence.The heuristic solution approach was applied on the large-scale public transport network in Denmark. The timetable optimisation approach yielded a yearly reduction in weighted waiting time equivalent to approximately 45 million Danish kroner (9 million USD).     

The management of the rural transportation problem in Nigeria

In spite of the fact that about 70% of Nigeria's population live in rural areas, these areas have remained largely inaccessible. Not only do they lack motorable roads and organized public transport but also field surveys indicate that nearly all rural inhabitants do not have a private car. A Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure has been set up to manage the inaccessibility problem, among others. Whereas there are several conventional approaches to the management of the rural transportation problem, the Nigerian approach relies on the provision of roads. This restrictive approach with an emphasis on locational to the neglect of personal accessibility has various limitations which are analysed.     

大坡度引水隧道无轨运输出渣方式的应用

辽西北供水工程11#支洞，断面小、坡度大，出渣运输方式是决定工期的关键控制因素。采用无轨运输出渣方式，存在以下问题：隧道纵坡坡度较大，运输渣车爬坡困难、存在严重的安全隐患；断面小，自卸车在陡坡上运行和洞内调头困难等。对此采取扩大隧道开挖断面、设置避车洞，改装车辆、确保车辆制动的可靠性；加强安全管理措施等。实践证明，采用无轨运输方式出渣具有节约工期、经济效益显著等特点，可根据实际工况加以选用。     

大型机场地面集疏运需求预测方法研究

机场地面集疏运系统是机场发展的重要支撑，交通需求预测是进行机场集疏运交通规划的前提。笔者以四阶段预测的基本原理为基础，结合机场集疏运需求特点，对预测的整体思路、方法、步骤和内容等进行详细分析，优化调整出行分布、方式划分预测模型，并以南京禄口国际机场为实例进行了预测。研究成果对国内同类大型机场的集疏运需求预测具有借鉴和参考价值。